Using the Rays' Win Streak to Find Value in MLB's Futures Market

There are hot starts, and then there are scorching hot starts, and it’s safe to say the Tampa Bay Rays fall into the latter category. Off to a franchise-best 13-straight wins as of April 13, the Rays are defying expectations and planting an early flag as one of the best teams across all of Major League Baseball. Not to imply the Rays were expected to be a bad team but given their initial World Series odds of +2000 at BetMGM, it’s fair to say they weren’t considered a major championship contender.

Regardless of how long the Rays take the streak, we want to figure out the best way to profit off them in our bets. Capitalizing on their shifting futures odds is a great way to do that and that’s where we’ll be focusing today.

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Which futures markets should you target for Tampa Bay?

Two weeks into the season and Tampa Bay has yet to lose a single game. Their 92 total runs scored, 27 runs against and +65 run differential are the best marks in the league by a wide margin. They now tie the Brewers’ and Braves' shared MLB record of 13 wins to start the season and are one away from making MLB history. To take advantage of the Rays’ win streak, we’ve broken down the following futures markets:

 

AL East Winner (+150 on DraftKings) 38.6% probability

After opening the season at +350 to win the AL East, good enough for third best, the Rays have catapulted into the favorite spot, just edging out the Yankees at +170. After Wednesday’s gritty win over the Red Sox, our model now projects the Rays with the highest probability to win the division.

Verdict: If you’re a believer in the Rays, attack this market before a strong showing in their upcoming divisional schedule shortens this price further.

American League Winner (+600 on BetMGM) 15.4% probability

In a larger market, the Rays have seen their odds shift from +1000 to win the American League. They trail the Yankees in probability by a slim margin of 1.6%. The larger takeaway in this market is that they hold a better price than the Astros (+390) who have a lower probability to win the AL at 13.3% and sit with a losing record.

Verdict: A great price in this market for a team with the second-highest probability, but there is better value elsewhere.

World Series Winner (+1200 on BetMGM) 7.3% probability

For a team off to a perfect start, the Rays’ odds to win the World Series are sure to draw attention. They were +2000 to win it all on Opening Day and while their odds have dropped quite a bit, there’s still plenty of value on the board.

Verdict: Just four more wins than an AL Pennant at double the odds? If you like the Rays to win the American League, take them to win the whole thing at +1200.

Whichever way you decide to attack the Rays all season long or in MLB’s futures market, be sure to utilize the power of our predictive analytics to guide you along the way. With our daily Game Predictions, Best Props, Futures and more, you can stay one step ahead of the books with every wager.