Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Buffalo Sabres Prediction, Odds, NHL Picks [12/21/2023]

Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Buffalo Sabres Prediction, Odds, NHL Picks  [12/21/2023]

NHL action continues on Thursday at 7:00PM ET as the Toronto Maple Leafs square off with the Buffalo Sabres at KeyBank Center.'s full betting preview for Thursday's Maple Leafs vs. Sabres matchup includes the latest betting odds, as well as our predictions and picks for the game.

Maple Leafs vs. Sabres Prediction: Who Will Win, Cover the Spread

We have used advanced machine learning and data to simulate the result of Thursday's NHL game between the Maple Leafs and Sabres 10,000 times, in line with our coverage of NHL picks.

Our proven predictive analytics model gives the Maple Leafs a 56% chance of defeating the Sabres.

According to our model, the Sabres (+1.5) have a 64% chance of covering the puck line, while the Over/Under total of 6.5 goals has a 51% chance of going over.

To make the most of today's Toronto vs. Buffalo betting analysis, check out the best sportsbook promos currently available in your state.

Maple Leafs vs. Sabres Odds

We have researched the best betting odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type Maple Leafs Sabres
Puck Line -1.5 (+155) +1.5 (-188)
Moneyline -145 +126
Total o6.5 (-138) u6.5 (+120)
  • The Sabres are currently +1.5 underdogs against the Maple Leafs, with -188 at FanDuel Sportsbook the best odds currently available.
  • For the favored Maple Leafs (-1.5) to cover the puck line, BetMGM Sportsbook has the best odds currently on the market at +155.
  • FanDuel currently has the best moneyline odds for the Sabres at +126, which means you can bet $100 to profit $126, earning a total payout of $226, if they win.
  • Elsewhere, BetMGM currently has the best moneyline odds for the Maple Leafs at -145, where you can risk $145 to win $100 for a total payout of $245 if they come out on top.
  • The Over/Under for total goals scored is set at 6.5 with FanDuel, which currently has the best odds for the Over at -138, while DraftKings Sportsbook currently has the best odds for the Under at +120.

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

As always, make sure you check all the online sports betting sites available in your state for the best NHL odds and lines.

Maple Leafs vs. Sabres Picks

By comparing our predictions to the odds listed above, we have determined the best betting picks to place on this game:

Bet Type Our Pick Best Odds
Puck Line Sabres +1.5 -188
Moneyline Sabres +126
Total Under 6.5 +120


While the Maple Leafs are more likely to win the game, taking the Sabres moneyline is the best option because of the edge found when comparing our data-led probabilities to the betting odds currently available.

Taking advantage of the edges published on Dimers is crucial to achieving long-term profitability as a bettor.

Furthermore, despite the Over being more likely to hit on this occasion, Under 6.5 is our best bet on account of the better odds (+120) that are available from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Our NHL best bets are based on world-class modeling and betting expertise to serve you the best possible plays every day of the year.

Maple Leafs vs. Sabres Player Props

Who will score the first goal in Maple Leafs vs. Sabres?

According to our model, Toronto's Auston Matthews is most likely to score the first goal in Maple Leafs vs. Sabres.

Our projections give Matthews an 11.5% chance of scoring the first goal at KeyBank Center, while the Maple Leafs star is a 54.6% chance of registering an anytime goal.

First Goal Scorer Predictions

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player First Goal Probability
Auston Matthews 11.5%
William Nylander 7.1%
Mitchell Marner 6.1%
John Tavares 4.9%
Tyler Bertuzzi 4.4%

Buffalo Sabres

Player First Goal Probability
Tage Thompson 6.8%
Alex Tuch 5.8%
Jeff Skinner 5.2%
Dylan Cozens 4.3%
Casey Mittelstadt 4.1%

Anytime Goal Scorer Predictions

Toronto Maple Leafs

Player Anytime Goal Probability
Auston Matthews 54.6%
William Nylander 37.9%
Mitchell Marner 33.1%
John Tavares 27.9%
Tyler Bertuzzi 25.9%

Buffalo Sabres

Player Anytime Goal Probability
Tage Thompson 38.5%
Alex Tuch 31.7%
Jeff Skinner 30.5%
Dylan Cozens 26.7%
Casey Mittelstadt 23.4%
Remember, our model updates frequently, so check this page for the latest betting insights before the Maple Leafs vs. Sabres on Thursday December 21, 2023.

Maple Leafs vs. Sabres Game Information

Thursday's matchup between the Sabres and Maple Leafs at KeyBank Center is scheduled to commence at 7:00PM ET.


Our full coverage of Maple Leafs vs. Sabres includes pregame predictions, betting picks, and live win probabilities.

How to Bet on Maple Leafs vs. Sabres

Want to join an online sportsbook and start betting on the NHL? Check out the top sportsbook sign-up offers in your state.


This preview article has been partially generated using automated processes and AI technology. Our goal is to provide timely and accurate updates on Thursday's Maple Leafs vs. Sabres clash, and automation assists in data collection, analysis, and formatting. Human editing and quality control are performed to ensure the content meets our editorial guidelines.

Dimers' predictions are made after 10,000 simulations per game, using reliable and up-to-date data sources and analytical methods. While our Maple Leafs vs. Sabres picks can help you make informed decisions, it's important that you gamble responsibly and manage your bankroll effectively.

For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that leads to a third-party website that we have a commercial arrangement with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee at no additional cost to you.

More on NHL

Stay well-informed with the most recent NHL news and our data-led NHL picks and parlays all season long. Plus, our Stanley Cup odds give you the latest predictions and the best available odds on the Stanley Cup winner.

Kevin Hansen
Senior Sports Analyst

Kevin Hansen has a track record of delivering high-quality content. He writes about all sports, but his favorites are the NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL. Kevin enjoys crunching the numbers and using data-driven insights to take on the sportsbooks. The majority of Kevin's time is spent writing about sports betting. His love for data and analytics drove him into the world of sports betting. Finding an edge in sports betting can take a long time, but Kevin believes it is well worth the effort. Kevin is just as passionate about sports as you are, and he empowers fellow bettors to become more educated through simple, actionable betting tips. It can be difficult to navigate the world of sports betting, which is where Kevin comes in to make it as simple as possible for you to pick a winner.

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