The Prospector's Golden Nuggets - NFL, CFB & Premier League
Some weeks, I have absolutely no idea where to start with these blogs. Trying to be clever or interesting as I ease my way in to writing is tough to do consistently, and there are days I just punt on it or fail trying. Other times, though, I don’t know where to begin because of just how much shit I need to talk about. This is one of those weeks.
I want to get on my high horse after my 6-2 performance last week, because you have to take your victories (and obnoxiously brag about them) when you can. I also want to sit here and write pages about how much that Tottenham-Wolves draw crushed my soul, and how I want to go beat Jose Mourinho’s stupid little face in.
I also want to discuss the ending to the Raiders-Dolphins game, which hit 51 points despite being 16-13 with just over 4 minutes left in regulation to completely fuck my under bet. There are just so many paths I could go down. So, in the end, I’ll follow though on none of it. Because I’m like a puppy with too many toys; I can’t decide which to focus on and get stuck in sensory overload. Lets just skip to the interesting stuff, I know that’s what you’re here for anyways:
⛏️ So much soccer. I don’t really know where to fucking begin with all of the soccer. Well, sure I do. Start with boxing day and end with the mid-week fixtures. But the onslaught of holiday games is both amazing and overwhelming.
⛏️ The theme this week is going to be “does anyone actually want to win the title.” We got our preview of that in game one, with United pissing away a solid chance at three points by giving up and 85th minute equalizer on an own-goal against Leicester. A fair result if we’re being honest, and nice for everyone involved who isn’t a United fan (aka a garbage person, like my friend Betsy)
⛏️ I didn’t think it could get much worse for Palace after their 7-0 loss to Liverpool. Then, they went out and lost 3-0 to Villa. More specifically, they gave up a goal but then went up a man on a 45th minute Red card, only to get outscored 2-0 from there. That is probably worse. Kudos for surprising me, gentlemen.
⛏️ The Arsenal performance might have been the most unexpected of the weekend. They actually looked.... good? Well, sort of. They still can’t quite score from open play. They put in a penalty (on a VERY generous call), scored a screamer free kick, and added a third on a cross so poorly hit that it went in the top corner. But when you’re in 15th (now 13th), you can’t be choosey. And I can always be happy about a Chelsea loss.
⛏️ City won again, and it was boring again. Maybe the pandemic and weird schedule are just messing with everyone in strange ways. This doesn’t look at all like a Pep-coached team though.
⛏️ Everton squeaked out a win to end Saturday and gave me a much needed victory. Brutal for Sheffield, who really are an impressive defensive side, but you can’t win if you don’t score goals. The Blades should probably just start selling players off now in stead of waiting for the summer. That extra interest from the bank could be valuable long-term.
⛏️ Sunday morning started on a positive note for me with an easy under 2.5 cover for Leeds-Burnley. I say easy, but it actually was anything but that. If you told me Leeds would score in the 5th minute, I would have said I had no shot at that bet, but a win is a win is a win.
⛏️ I should have known something was wrong with the universe after that Liverpool game. How in the world does this team go from winning by 7 goals to drawing West Brom at home? A nice present for anyone who considers themselves in the title race (i.e. not Tottenham).
⛏️ I’m going to try to keep this brief and hold my temper, but Jose Mourinho’s tactics have pissed away Spurs’ season. Not a single fan saw that 1st minute goal and was happy. How is that possible? Well, everyone on the planet, including Wolves, knew Mourinho would try to just grind out the clock and win 1-0. Spurs had more shots on target in the first minute of the game than the last 89. Their last shot on target was in the 21st minute. And Mourinho’s substitutions were a fucking nightmare. We were left with HARRY FUCKING WINKS on the field but no Son or Ndombele when Wolves equalized. Tottenham have an average back line but two world class talents up front, and Jose thinks the best strategy is to park the bus like he always has? I just don’t have words for that level of stubbornness and stupidity.
⛏️ More games? More games! Mid week action to keep that heroine-like high flowing through my veins. Even with the pain Spurs causes me, its still nice to have sports.
⛏️ The highlight of Monday’s slate was the two biggest wildcards in the League facing off. It was almost too predictable that their chaos would stalemate and end up with a draw, which is exactly what happened. A Palace win would have been better, and funnier (considering just how abysmal the Eagles’ last 7 days have been), but 1-1 was probably the right result in the end.
⛏️ Villa are just hanging around. I figured they would have fallen off to the middle of the table by now, but hats off to them for continuing to produce solid results. Their roster will be gutted next Summer when Grealish and anyone else worth buying gets shipped off to the highest bidder, but this is a nice gift for a fan base who have had a rough few years prior to this one. Also, suck it Chelsea.
⛏️ Arsenal winning again, not good. It was way more fun when they sucked.
⛏️ I can’t believe I expected Sheffield to score a goal. That was incredibly dumb. This team is an embarrassment, and I will actually be glad to see them relegated. My apologies to anyone who followed me on Over 2.5.
⛏️ Poor West Brom. That was a disaster from start to finish. Leeds are a blast to watch at their best though.
⛏️ Tottenham’s match against Fulham got cancelled, right when they desperately need a win. Why does god hate me (answer: read last week’s blog).
⛏️ And finally, another woeful draw by Liverpool against Newcastle. I will end this section by answering my original question; I really don’t think that anyone wants to win the league this year.
⛏️ Alright, we’re pretty much going to start and end college football with the Liberty-Coastal Carolina game (I just couldn’t bring myself to care about OK State-Miami). What a great matchup. It was everything you could want from a bowl game, including tons of scoring and turnovers, barring the fact that Coastal lost. Yes, I bet against them on the line but I was hoping the Chanticleers would still win without covering. Obviously the money is the primary goal, but it was disappointing that CCU couldn’t end the season undefeated.
⛏️ Also, how soon is it until Freese gets hired back in the SEC? My O/U is a month.
⛏️ I’ll also just mention how sad that Cotton Bowl was. Poor Kyle Trask. That had the potential to be a great game, and it’s a shame every Gators offensive player opted out. Nice of his teammates to do that when he’s trying to win a Heisman.
⛏️ The NFL, on the whole, was a blast. Lots of meaningful games, some great performances, and some epic collapses. I don’t know if I’ll be able to handle it when the season ends. 6+ months without football is cruel and unusual punishment.
⛏️ I’ll give some praise to Kamara for his Christmas performance as a formality, even though everyone in the world already has. That said, wow is the Vikings defense pathetic. 52 points? Not gonna win you a lot of games... But it will win me a lot of over bets which is nice.
⛏️ I mentioned last week that the Lions had slipped through the cracks a bit with how much of a mess the organization is normally. Well, they took notice and made sure it stopped. 34-0 after the first half, and a comfortable 40-point loss at home. Well done.
⛏️ The Cardinals just don’t want to make the playoffs I guess? That was a shocking performance against the 49ers team on its third-string QB. They still have a chance, but that was a game they really couldn’t afford to lose.
⛏️ OK. Dolphins-Raiders. What in the ever-loving fuck guys? 16-13 with 4:15 left, and you still cover Over 47.5? I don’t even have words for how angry I was watching those pathetic defensive plays to end the game. Well, actually, I do. I yelled them, spittle dribbling out my mouth, as I watched. But they are not appropriate for this, or any other, website or public forum.
⛏️ Oh, Atlanta. I’ve run out of ways to describe how bad you are. I don’t think there was a person in the world who was surprised by that missed field goal though. It’s the Falcons. Of course they’re going to miss it.
⛏️ I’ve had a lot of positive things to say about Baker Mayfield this year, even in some of their losses. But I’ll be damned if he didn’t try his best to ruin all of it on Sunday. Playoff hopes on the line and you can’t go out and beat the Jets? Or put up more than 16 points? Yeesh.
⛏️ Just when I thought the Steelers were going to go full collapse, Philip Rivers decided to do his things and fuck it all up. Why do you have to hurt me like that?
⛏️ You’ve heard it here before, and I’ll say it again. Bears fans need to be worried. Trubisky is going to do enough to make the playoffs, and you are going to be saddled with him for 2+ more years when the front office decides he’s worth keeping.
⛏️ I’ll start my discussion of the Ravens by noting I was right, again. Lamar lives for these matchups. I want to also take a second to mention the local Baltimore reporter who I got into a twitter fight with this weekend (yes, twitter was a bad idea for me). He didn’t quite understand why I thought he was a moron for saying that the Ravens were the best team in the AFC right now. Its probably my fault, in the end, for trying to reason with somebody who is clearly very stupid.
⛏️ Dwayne Haskins’ collapse has been catastrophic. That performance alone might have been enough to cut him, setting aside all of the off-field issues and lack of preparation. Hopefully he gets his shit together, because he’s definitely better than the last two years have shown
⛏️ Oh Philly. Thank you for the belated Christmas gift. How does it feel to be the biggest loser among a division of losers? That has to hurt.
⛏️ How does Davante Adams continue to score touchdowns at this clip? Even the most basic fan can tell that you have to double cover him. Its absolutely wild. But credit to me for hitting my under pick on this one. You’re welcome.
⛏️ All I will say about the Patriots is that I can’t wait for Cam Newton to be gone. If he had any throwing talent, he would be one of the deadliest QBs in the league. Lucky for everyone else, he does not.
⚽ English Premier League Picks
Alright, lets get after it with a bit of an odd pick. Villa are clearly over-performing on the season, but you can’t deny that they are playing well at the moment. In particular, their defense has been spectacular and they have the second best GD in the League. While United have picked things up and are starting to win games consistently, they aren’t doing it convincingly. Squeaking out wins over Wolves and Sheffield doesn’t give me a lot of confidence in them, and I think the spread on this game doesn’t quite align with the quality these two sides have put out this year. Am I in love with Villa and dismayed that they’re at +340? No. But these sides are probably more even at the moment than this line suggests. So what’s the bet? Well, I considered the draw no-bet option, but I actually like taking both the draw and Villa win here in stead. At +310 and +340 respectively, you still come out ahead if either of them hits and I think the draw might actually be a decently likely outcome in this game. Split your money on both, rather than taking a push on the draw, and just bet against United on those odds.
💰 Pick: Villa ML (+340) and Draw (+310)
Expecting high scoring matches when Leeds’ is playing would usually not a bad idea. In 16 games this season they have both scored and given up 30 goals, which leaves them at close to 4 total per game. Unfortunately, they are playing Jose Mourinho’s Tottenham, who do everything they can to completely suck the life out of every match they play. Want to know the last time a match Spurs played in the League went over 3 goals? October 18th. But due to Leeds’ record, the under 3.5 is only -130, which is insanely good odds for that total. I watch every minute of every Spurs’ games, and I can say confidently that this team, in their current form, is not going to get drawn into an offensive battle with anyone. They are going to defend, counter attack, and do their best to ruin all of the fun that usually goes with watching soccer. With all of the offensive talent they have, from Kane to Son, they have the ability to make this one of the most exciting games of the year. Sadly, it will not be.
💰 Pick: Under 3.5 (-130)
Ok, I’m going to be completely up front and tell you that this is a flier. It’s not a high probability bet, but it comes with a better payout than it should. If that’s not your jam, no hard feelings. Take a shot at Newcastle in this game. Newcastle have not had a stellar season, but they have 5 wins from 15, which is more than you would expect from a team that low in the table. They are capable of going out and grabbing 3 points when they play well, so long at the matchup isn’t against anyone who completely outclasses them (think Liverpool or City). Leicester, while solid, are not out of their reach. And the Foxes are an absolute enigma. They could show up and blow the doors off the Magpies, but they could also lay an egg. Add in the difficulty of the congested festive schedule, and I think that the likelihood of a bad showing is kicked up a bit. So at +440, the money on Newcastle is pretty good here. As we’ve seen the last two weeks, everyone is liable to drop points in any match (see; West Brom-Liverpool), and this will be no exception. I think it’s solid bet to make, and pays out above its actual likelihood. Sprinkle a few dollars on it for a “high-risk but high-reward” option.
💰 Pick: Newcastle Win (+440)
🏈 College Football Picks
This game is every bit as good as the playoff games that follow it. Actually, it’s probably better (almost certainly better than the Alabama game). These two teams are both stronger than their ranking suggests, but for different reasons. Cincinnati was just flat out ignored by the CFP Committee in favor of Power Conference teams, and they never got in the conversation. If you think that money and influence don’t decide things like this, even under the guise of a meritocracy, you are wrong. The Dawgs are better than their record suggests purely because they now have a real QB in JT Barrett. This offense has looked completely different since he stepped in, and they are moving the ball effectively with somebody who can actually see over the offensive line. So what’s the play. I’m going to avoid this line and take the over. I normally bet SEC teams as a rule in meaningless bowl games, but this one feels a bit different and I don’t know that I want to give up 7 points. The total feels too low at just 50.5 though. Georgia’s offense has put up over 40 points alone in each of their last two games, and I think they will feast against a Cincinnati defense that will be overmatched as far as raw talent. On the other side, Ridder is still a top quarterback in the nation and he will be able to make plays against this Georgia defense, which has been struggling over the back half of the season due to injuries. I think the fact that this is a bowl game needs to play into the choice too. These teams have “nothing to play for” in the trophy sense, and won’t be as focused on getting into a tactical duel. I expect to get more free flowing play from both programs on the offensive end, with some gadget plays and deep shots sprinkled in more consistently. At just 50.5, I like this to cover comfortably.
💰 Pick: Over 50.5
I fucking hate this game. Absolutely hate it. I hate the line and the over, and I don’t even want to touch them. Honesty is crucial in this business. But it’s the CFP semi final and I feel obligated to make a pick, so here goes. I am going to do something I almost never do, and take a first half line. Why? Well, I believe that Alabama is way better than Notre Dame, and I think they come out firing to try to get an early knockout punch. If that happens and they go up early, you would see a first half cover from the Tide. Why not the full game line then? Well, I’m mostly afraid of a backdoor cover scenario or Notre Dame making an actual push at this game. The Irish packed it in and never really tried to win the ACC Championship, but I expect they will at least attempt to take shots down the field in this one, even if their early strategy is to try to slow things down to keep the ball out of Mack Jones’ hands. So at just 10.5 for the first half, I’ll take that line with the expectation that the Tide will make the first big move. Worst case, I can always bet the live line if things go wrong. Is this my best choice for the weekend? Certainly not, but I still think it’s the right one.
💰 Pick: Alabama 1st Half -10.5
Selection committee, please don’t let Notre Dame play Alabama. It’s not a fair fight #ACCChampionship
— Prospector Sam ⛏️ (@prospector_sam) December 19, 2020
Back to real football, thank god. This game actually has a solid pick, and I will be betting it aggressively. I love the under. OSU doesn’t have a prayer in this game if they let Fields loose to find out if he can out-gun Trevor Lawrence. The answer is, he can’t. So the Buckeyes will run the football a lot, and hope they can pick up chunk yardage consistently on the ground or with short passes. On the other side of the ball, the Buckeyes defense is actually fairly solid. At the very least, they have the raw talent that a perennial top-5 recruiting class brings, which will be a bonus in stopping the Tigers’ offense. Are they going to hold Lawrence down completely? Absolutely not. But they will be able to contain him better than Pittsburgh could. The Buckeyes worst defensive performances to date have come in games where they tried to outscore their opponents, which led to everything opening up too much on them. The Indiana match up was a prime example. But against a team like Clemson, they won’t make that mistake. I think this game ends up with the winner somewhere around 30, which would make it impossible to hit the 66.5. These teams collectively average 38.5 PPG against on the season, and in a playoff game that will define their season, I expect them both to play a little tighter. Hammer this total.
💰 Pick: Under 66.5
If you’re wondering why I’m even bothering with this game, it’s a fair question. I had absolutely no intention of betting it when I started poking through the lines this week. And then I saw the total and my jaw hit the floor. I cannot understate how much I love this over. UNC has absolutely no interest in playing defense, and wants to run up the score in every game they play. In a bowl game that has no major ramifications, that should be even more true than usual. The only catch is what Texas A&M does to dictate the game. The Aggies are feeling a bit aggrieved over missing the CFP (Maybe don’t lose by 28 to Alabama then?) and will likely come out in one of two ways. Either they play aggressive and try to take it to the Tar Heels to prove a point, or they just sulk their way through this game. My expectation is that they do the former, and UNC will give them every opportunity to score points. They’ve given up 30+ points to 5 teams this season, including powerhouses like Wake Forest and Florida State. Kellen Mond, in his last game, is going to put up a crooked number on the Carolinians. On the other side of the ball, I like the Tar Heels to put up a bunch too. The Aggies have a better defense than any team UNC has seen this year, but they average over 40 fucking points on offense. AVERAGE. Even if a things go a bit off course for them, they still should put in at least 30. Couple that with the scoring I expect from A&M and I see this one having a ton of fireworks. Take the over all day.
💰 Pick: Over 65.5
🏈 National Football League Picks
Picking games in week 17 of the NFL is a daunting task. Its like meeting your significant other’s parents for the first time; there are landmines fucking everywhere and you have to respect the danger in front of you. But, there is also value to be found based on playoff implications which can skew lines. This, however, is not one of those games. Why? Well, the pick here is easy for me regardless of the current playoff landscape. I could basically rewrite every single sentence from my Ravens pick last week and it would apply here, because the logic is sound. Lamar Jackson shows up and eats inferior opponents alive. Its what he was born to do. He did it against the Giants, exactly like I said he would, and he’s going to do it against the Bengals. Despite losing Joe Burrow for the season, Cincy has performed well recently, knocking off two wins in a row. But Baltimore is a different beast than the hapless Texans or slumping Steelers, and Lamar will go out and run the ball down their throat. The value is even better because the Ravens need to win this game to make the playoffs, so I expect they will come out and play with urgency all the way through. This line is generous to the Ravens in my opinion, and I think it’s skewed by the Bengals recent showing more than it should be. I like Baltimore to win this game by AT LEAST 14.
💰 Pick: Ravens -11.5
Alright, on to the real do-or-die matchups. This is the first of two games where both teams are fighting to make the playoffs, and I think you are going to get some value here. It’s win or go home for both teams, who are fighting for a shot at the coveted crown of “prettiest girl in a Mississippi farm town” (aka the NFC East Champion). There are no real winners, only losers. That said, I like the Giants here. The Cowboys are running hot and the Giants cold, but the gap in their opposition over the last few weeks has been large. I’ll give the Cowboys a golf clap for beating up on teams like the Eagles and 49ers, but I’m not going to give them too much credit. While the Giants have had a tough run, they have a consistent defense that has held solid offenses like the Seahawks and Browns in check. They’re also facing a Cowboys team that gives up over 30 PPG. Playing in the Meadowlands, I think the edge is slightly in favor of the Giants to win, but at worst is a toss up. So getting 2 points on the G-Men is a huge bonus and worth taking. If you think Andy Dalton is going to show up and play like a high-caliber QB, be my guest and take the Cowboys, but nothing over his career has shown me that he can do that in big games. Especially outside of the friendly confines of AT&T Stadium, I think this match up will be more of an ugly dog fight, and I like the Giants defense and running game to give them an edge.
💰 Pick: Giants +2
Which of these teams wants it less? Its pretty hard to say at this point. The Rams looked like a lock to make the playoffs, but have lost two straight, including a disaster against the Jets, to put themselves in danger. Oh, and their QB, best receiver, and best RB are all out for this game. Lucky for them, the Cardinals are also trying just as hard to give away a shot at the playoffs, and lost to the 49ers last week with a truly pathetic performance. So which of these embarrassments do you ride? Well, I’m taking the team that actually has its players on the field. The Rams will be starting John Wolford at quarterback. If you had never heard of him, that isn’t surprising. He’s an undrafted free agent who went to Wake Forest, who has literally never played in an NFL game before. And yet, somehow, the Rams are still a favorite here. I know their defense is solid and Aaron Donald may be the best player in the League. But this is football, and QB play wins games. This kid is going out in a big game for his first start with a team that is also shorthanded at other skill positions. I cannot imagine staking my money on the expectation that things will go well for him. I have been a fairly big critic of Kyler Murray over his first two years, but he has a lot of skills that cause problems for opposing defenses, and having DeAndre Hopkins is a huge bonus. Give me the Cardinals to cover this one.
💰 Pick: Cardinals -3.5
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Prospector Sam is a cartoon man that handicaps as well as anyone on the planet. No one knows exactly who The Prospector is, but what is known is how well he does from sports betting.
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