The Prospector's Golden Nuggets - NFL, CFB & Premier League
My name is Sam, and I’m a dumbass. Yup, it needs to be said. I pride myself on brutal honesty, and some days you have to stand up and take your licks.
Last weekend I had a chance at greatness. I went 3/3 on CFB, had a 50/50 record in soccer, and hit my early game in the NFL. Sitting at 5/6, things were setting up for a huge payday. But wouldn’t you know it, betting on the Falcons and the Brows, two teams who I have repeatedly sworn off trusting, pissed away all of the hard work I had done. And both of those losses were as perfectly atrocious as you would imagine. Matt Ryan had a nightmare day, including two interceptions in the last 5 minutes to give up a shot at the field goal and an easy cover. And the Browns..... oh guys. That game was amazing. But how in the world do you get picked apart in the air by Lamar Jackson. The man can barely throw the football. So often we all love to talk about how many bad QB selections the Browns organization has made over the years, but Baker Mayfield was an absolute stud on Monday. It was the defense that completely let them, and me, down. And I deserve it. Because betting on the Falcons and Browns to show up, even when they should be able to handle the moment, is something that a fool does. I deserve this pain, and I know it.
As for the larger sports picture, things are moving in two directions. CFB is wrapping up, while Soccer and the NFL are hitting their peak. Despite a rough outcome in the midweek Liverpool match (I’ll get to that later), it’s fantastic to reach the Premier League crazy period where there are games almost every day. Other than the job keeping me from watching as much as I would like (those assholes, am I right?) it is a great time to be a soccer fan. Add in some college basketball and the fast approaching NBA season, and the holidays should a happy period, even if you hate your family or can’t travel or just want 2020 to end. Always remember, sports and gambling (and the Prospector) are here for you, even when nothing else is.
Oh, and I have a twitter handle now! Dimers thought that it would be a good idea to have me spouting off my hot takes LIVE as I watch games. Why they thought making me more unhinged and unfiltered was a good idea, I’m not sure. Even I saw that email and thought “Really? Do you think that’s smart?” But hey, I will oblige them, and my adoring fans, with all of the real time content on hot takes you could ever want. Go check it out and follow @prospector_sam.
I can’t be blamed for this if the Raiders win. I had no idea their greatest liability would get hurt. I’m a prospector, not a prognosticator.
— Prospector Sam ⛏️ (@prospector_sam) December 18, 2020
Now on to the roundup:
⛏️ Wolves losing to Villa makes no sense. Wolves in general just don’t make any sense. I fluctuate between thinking they’re a Europa League team and a relegation team pretty much every time I watch them.
⛏️ Newcastle tried to fuck me, but managed to pull out a solid win in the last 10 minutes over West Brom. I respect the teams who pull through on my bets, so I salute you, gentlemen.
⛏️ That Manchester derby was something.... two hours of my life I will never get back, and a push on my bet to add to the wastefulness. Draws between other big clubs are good for Spurs though, so I suppose I should be thankful.
⛏️ And on to the first part of the terrible parlay that killed me. I believe I said something about Everton not being able to contain Chelsea’s firepower. That was technically correct (the best kind of correct) because there was no firepower to contain. Oh, and Chelsea are back to having a goalie who is prone to meltdowns. Kepa and Mendy should start a support group.
⛏️ The Spurs-Palace match was rough (for me, at least). I think the biggest problem with this team is that they don’t know how to play against lesser teams. Mourinho has drilled them on defensive tactics, but this match screamed for them to press forward and attack Palace. If we’re being honest, a point was about all we deserved.
⛏️ Arsenal’s loss to Burnley was majestic. There is no other way to put it. Xhaka’s red card was obviously the highlight, but there were so many beautiful moments of ineptitude that I could watch that game on replay for the rest of my life and be happy.
⛏️ If you don’t already do so, make sure to go check out AFTV after Arsenal games. Its pure gold for those who hate the Gunners.
⛏️ Speaking generally, these midweek games showed exactly why the Premier League is the best professional league in soccer. One, because they have midweek games in the heart of the winter when most leagues are off, and two, because there were a ton of upsets (which just doesn’t happen in other big leagues).
⛏️ Remember that thing I said about Wolves? Yeah man, I just don’t get it. Thanks for beating Chelsea though.
⛏️ Oh boy, City. What happened. West Brom are barely even competitive most days, and you drop points at home to them? Things are getting really ugly at the Etihad. Time to dump more oil money in.
⛏️ Arsenal almost managed to make my week again, but they survived ANOTHER red card and took a draw against Southampton. They’re still in 15th place over a third of the way through the season though, which is cool.
⛏️ And now Everton are back to being great. Wins over Chelsea and Leicester in a 5 day period. This League is a rollercoaster.
⛏️ Ok, lets address the Spurs-Liverpool game. It probably should have been a draw. Liverpool looked better overall, but Tottenham arguably produced better chances. It’s a heartbreaking way to lose, but Liverpool are up to 66 games unbeaten at Anfield in the League and that’s just not a place you can expect to pick up points. A point would have been nice, but its not a backbreaking result in the grand scheme of things.
⛏️ I already mentioned I went 3/3 on CFB, but its worth reemphasizing. My picks were SPOT ON. Iowa crushed Wisconsin, the Georgia over covered by the third quarter, and Army handled Navy comfortably, even with weather that made the game more even than it should have been.
⛏️ As for meaningful games, there wasn’t a ton to talk about. The Chanticleers survived a huge letdown game with a last minute TD, which was great to see. After that win over BYU it would have been a shame for them to piss everything away to Troy.
⛏️ Obviously, the biggest moment of football was.... somebody throwing a shoe? Seriously, how fucking stupid can you be. That guy just cost Florida any chance of a national championship because he’s too dumb to stop himself from taking another players footwear and tossing it 30 yards down the field. That might help if you’re trying out for the QB position, not so much there. He should have been cut from the team on the spot.
⛏️ Oh, and two loss Iowa-State is now up to 6th in the country. The team who lost to ULL at home. I feel like I’m in the twilight zone.
⛏️ Ok, on to the NFL. There’s nothing like watching organizations in meltdown give their fans a glimmer of hope after its too late. The Cowboys and Bears both pulled it off, with absolutely meaningless wins to hurt their draft stock. Well done, gentlemen.
⛏️ The Chiefs are trying their best to trick me into thinking they aren’t good. But that just cannot be true. I’m too clever for you Andy. So stop the act, and start blowing teams out again please, we know you’re capable of it.
⛏️ One of the crucial skills for a sport gambler is being able to recognize a trap. And last week I showed you just how important that is. NOTHING about that Cardinals-Giants matchup suggested an Arizona blowout going in, but I sniffed it out and walked away from the Giants to cover. Arizona wins by 19, but the under still hits. God, am I good.
⛏️ I wish I knew if the Titans were any good at football. I really have no clue. This team could make a Super Bowl run, or lose by a billion in the first round. Someone let me know when they figure it out.
⛏️ Raiders, definitely bad at football. Them being 7-6 is like seeing your buddy who has the least points in fantasy football make the playoff because he managed to win half his games by a point on lucky matchups. (Additional Note: The Raiders-Chargers game just ended, and I feel vindicated)
⛏️ Adam Gase. Still has a Job. That’s all I have to say.
⛏️ I’m going to start my discussion of the Eagles by saying I don’t know that Hurts is a franchise QB (though he might be), nor do I want the Eagles to be good. But its fucking hilarious to see him go out and beat the 10-2 Saints and spit right in Carson Wentz’s face. I’ve never been more right about anything than saying this team needed to make a QB switch months ago. They might have had a shot at the playoffs if they had listened (hire me?).
⛏️ I can’t even look at the Falcons logo right now. Fuck you guys.
⛏️ This WFT story gets cooler and cooler as Alex Smith continues to overcome the odds. Its almost enough to make you forget this organization was named the Redskins and have arguably the worst owner in all of American sports. Almost. But I don’t forget these things. You just can’t root for them until they get sold.
⛏️ The Steelers are starting to collapse. I can feel it. Mike Tomlin’s fragile ego is breaking and the rest of the cards will fall with him. I cant wait to see that bug-eyed asshole lose in the first round.
⛏️ I don’t have nearly enough time to discuss everything that happened in the Ravens-Browns game. It was a blast, and I really hope nobody reading this bet Cleveland +3.5. The game was already over for me, so I wasn’t as devastated, but damn... that must have been brutal to watch from that side of the table.
⛏️ There’s NBA basketball on, if you’re into that sort of thing. Give me college basketball 10 times out of 10 though. Even if the quality is worse its just way more fun to watch.
⛏️ Speaking of, how about that Alabama coach accusing Duke of canceling games because they weren’t playing well. Really bud? You’re the coach of Alabama basketball, which is less important that the guy who washes the football team’s dirty towels. Know your place.
⛏️ There were a bunch of NCAAB games, I watched very little. I’m sorry, but I promise I’ll be better when football ends.
⚽ English Premier League Picks
You have to be blind to not see how bad things are at the Emirates right now. This team isn’t playing well, and they’re also doing their best to make things harder on themselves with own goals and red cards. I will continue to hammer the odds against them until I think the book stops giving them the benefit of the doubt “because it’s Arsenal.” Do I think they end up getting relegated at the end of the season? I really doubt it (but if Leicester can win the title....). Their form is awful right now though, and they couldn’t even put the ball in the net if I was in goal (fun fact, I was actually a goalie when I played those many years ago). Everton, meanwhile, have found a bit of rhythm with wins over Chelsea and Leicester in their last two outings. Arsenal are fully capable of competing or even winning at Goodison on their best day, but they haven’t produces anything close to that in months outside of the Europa League. The value is still there on the Toffees, who are +135 to win at home. Take it.
💰Pick: Everton ML (+135)
DO NOT TOUCH THIS LINE. I’m serious, I wouldn’t go anywhere near it. Leicester are a wild card, and Tottenham haven’t won a game comfortably all season despite being second in the League. Hell, Spurs couldn’t even hold on to a 3 goal lead against West Ham this season (yes, it still hurts). But over 2.5 is great value here. Leicester play aggressive and attack in waves, regardless of who they face. It’s the reason they can win big games, but also lose to Fulham. Spurs have the best defensive record in the League this season, but they’ve shown recently that they are becoming too reliant on simply defending in stead of getting aggressive. They want to beat you on the counter with Kane and Son, and they need you to attack them in order to exploit space on the other end. That leads to a lot of hard defending and opportunities for opponents to attack. The Foxes will undoubtedly oblige them on that front, and we will see both teams playing the style they prefer. That gives me confidence that goals will be scored, as both will be comfortable with the flow of the game and be able to effectively exploit opportunities when they come. I see this ending as a 2-2 or 3-2 game, despite Tottenham’s record. I’ll keep it safe though, because at -134 the over 2.5 still has solid value.
💰 Pick: Over 2.5 (-134)
I LOVE this game. It’s a steal for me. West Brom are a mess. Add in the fact that they just switch managers two days ago, and I can’t see things ending well here. Sam Allardyce is a solid coach (even if he is a sleezebag, go read about him getting fired from the England job), but it will take time for him to implement his tactics. This early on, he will be trying out new strategies and players to get a feel for what he has, and I expect it probably won’t go very well to start. Meanwhile, Villa are still comfortably a mid-table side, and will be the better team despite some poor form recently. Overall, its just generally a good idea to bet against the Baggies, and I’m sticking with that approach in this one.
💰 Pick: Villa ML (EVEN)
🏈 College Football Picks
This slate has a couple of great picks. Even though I want to be aggressive and bet every Conference Title, I’m going to stick to a couple of solid options (that’s not entirely true. My degenerate ass WILL bet all of them, but I’ll just give you my best bets). This one is my favorite, by far. Ohio State could win this game by 50. That’s not a joke at all. The Buckeyes have the offensive talent to torch anyone, and the Wildcats aren’t keeping Justin Fields and co. out of the end zone. Ohio State’s biggest liability is their defense, but Northwestern just doesn’t score that many points. It was a great achievement for Northwestern to make it to this game, but they don’t have a prayer in hell of being competitive. Their best win of the season is... Iowa? And they lost to MSU. This team does not have the talent to keep up with Ohio State in any aspect of the game, and the score line will reflect that.
💰 Pick: Ohio State -19.5
This line interested me, but then I saw the total and my jaw dropped. That number is 59.5. Do you know how many points these teams average, combined, over the course of the season? I do. Its 83.7. Sure, that bakes in some bad ACC defenses, and these teams will put up more of a fight than Louisville or Syracuse can. But the offense is where both of these programs earn their keep, and that isn’t going to change just because it’s a big game. In particular, Clemson needs to win this game and they will be getting aggressive early and often to put it to the Irish. Ian Book has done enough to prove he can also compete at the highest level, something I doubted early on this year, and I expect both sides will put up at least 30. Clemson alone could make a push at this number if they play well enough, and their only limitation the last few weeks has been the fact that they didn’t want to embarrass their opponents too badly. Hammer the over.
💰 Pick: Over 59.5
🏈 National Football League Picks
Saturday NFL is back? Sure, why not. Feels at little premature with all of the college games still on, but I’m not going to cry about it. And I like this game, because the under feels like an easy win. Its December in Green Bay, and the forecast calls for snow. The Panthers have absolutely no interest in playing this game regardless of where it is, and they will want nothing more than to get this over as quickly as possible. Expect them to run the ball on most plays and push to grind out the clock. Aaron Rodgers will be able to put some points on the board in the air, even with the weather, but he will still be limited in those conditions. Add in the fact that Green Bay should win this game comfortably and it all adds up to a matchup where less points are going up on the board. If Carolina gets some early points and keeps things close it could get a bit dicey, but I just can’t see Teddy Bridgewater producing a spectacular performance. He will check every pass down, and do next to nothing while still posting a 65% completion rate. It’s not a fun bet to make, but I like it.
💰 Pick: Under 51
My theory here is that the Bears game last week was an anomaly. That seems like a fairly smart assumption if we’re being honest. Despite the fact that they beat down on Houston, this team has looked pathetic since September, including a 6-point loss in Chicago to these Vikings. Minnesota got a tough matchup against Tampa Bay last week (who was coming off a bye), but they have more talent than the Bears on the offensive side. While Minnesota’s defense is a bit shakier, I don’t believe that Mitch Trubisky is going to exploit them, especially when he only has one legitimate receiver to throw to. Dalvin Cook will punish the defensive front, which will open up opportunities for Justin Jefferson on the back end as the Bears D brings safeties down to help stop the run. I like the Vikings to win this by closer to a touchdown.
💰 Pick: Vikings -3.5
I mentioned this earlier, but I think the Chiefs will kick it into gear at some point. They’ve basically been able to sleepwalk through the season because they are just that much better than everyone else right now. But eventually they’re going to have to take this at least a little bit seriously, and a game with the NFC South-leading Saints should do the trick. The key for me is the the Chiefs offense. No shit. But more importantly, its what the Chiefs offense does well. The Saints have over-performed defensively because they stop the run effectively, giving up under 90 YPG on the ground. But do you really think that’s going to bother Patrick Mahomes that much? My guess is, no. If your strategy plays into the Super Bowl MVP keeping the ball in his hands, its going to go very poorly for you. But the Saints strength is stopping the run, and don’t have the talent in their secondary to be a strong unit against the pass. The Chiefs offense will eat them alive, and I like them to win this game by a lot. If you have CEH on your fantasy team then this might not be fun for you, but for anyone else it will be. The Saints can’t even beat the Eagles for fucks sake, you think they’re going to compete with Kansas City? No, no they are not.
💰 Pick: Chiefs -3
Prospector Sam is a cartoon man that handicaps as well as anyone on the planet. No one knows exactly who The Prospector is, but what is known is how well he does from sports betting.
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