The Prospector's Golden Nuggets - NFL, CFB & Premier League
Breathe in..... and breathe out. Jesus Christ (happy soon to be birthday, friend!), there is so much going on in the sports world right now that it’s hard to keep my head straight. I’m focusing on football and soccer, then I get smacked by NBA trade news and big college basketball games.
I can barely keep track of it all. But you know what the real thing keeping me on edge is? The Indianapolis Colts and the Houston Texans. Hey guys. Fuck. You. It has been 5 days and counting since that game finished, and I’m still not even close to over it. As you all know (I assume I have a loyal swarm of followers by now) I took the Over 50.5 in that football game. At halftime, they had already hit 44 points so I decided to stop checking the score. Heck, what could go wrong. It wasn’t even one of those terrible blowout games where both teams give up in the second half and stop playing.
The score was 24-20. But they combined for 2 FUCKING POINTS in the second half and missed the over, including multiple drives that made it inside the 10-yard line without scoring. The pain isn’t quite as sharp as losing on one awful play, but it’s pretty god damn bad. That loss is going in the ever-growing storage file of bets that haunt my dreams. I will say, Aaron Jones’ run to cover the Packers spread did soothe some pain though. The gambling gods give, and the gambling gods take. Now let’s get caught up in the world of sports:
⛏️ Lots of boring chalk results on Saturday in the Prem. Chelsea, United and City all won comfortably and ruined my dreams of a disaster scenario for any of them. Not too upsetting because none of them played a real “quality” opponent, but its always nice to get an unexpected gift.
⛏️ Everton, uhh, what’s going on guys? The answer: nothing good.
⛏️ Screw Jamie Vardy and his stupid last minute goal to give Leicester a victory. Its not a good sign for the foxes to be in a dog fight with Sheffield, but its even worse for me to see them pull off the smash and grab.
⛏️ Oh, was there an important game Sunday? HELL YES THERE WAS!!!! What a beautiful sight it was to see Tottenham smash Arsenal. The worldy goals by Son and Kane were great, and watching the Gunners piss away every chance in the second half was the icing on the cake. That team really is a mess in front of goal, and I love it. 15th place in December, which means the relegation battle is officially on! Oh, and Spurs are still in first. The Prospector is living his best life.
⛏️ I might have been a little aggressive in my statement that Liverpool was not as great offensively as last season. They’re still pretty good, it seems, much to my gambling detriment.
⛏️ I’m going to start college football with the most important game of the weekend. There’s a lot to unpack overall, but nothing was more significant to me than BYU-Coastal Carolina. It was just an awesome matchup. In the middle of a nightmare scenario with Liberty canceling due to Covid, the Cougars stepped up to take on the Chanticleers to get another real game on their resume. Two undefeated small programs battling for legitimacy with two days to prepare. Oh, and the game was a blast. High-quality teams slugging it out all the way to a last second play, with an amazing goal-line tackle to break BYU’s heart. If you’re a fan of college football, or even sports, that was great to watch. And if you don’t love this CCU team, you are a sad human being.
⛏️ Alabama: Still good at football. 45 points in the first half is alright I guess.
⛏️ ND and Clemson are just chugging along towards their rematch. Nothing to see in the ACC until that one comes up.
⛏️ Ohio State’s biggest news this week wasn’t their dominant win over MSU, but the fact that the Big 10 changed their rules to allow them into the Big 10 Championship game. If you think that wasn’t the right call, you’re a fool. The Buckeyes are clearly the best team in the conference, and holding them out because games got canceled due to Covid would have been silly. Be flexible, that’s the world we live in these day. Bad news for Northwestern though, who are going to get their doors blown off. I’m estimating the line at somewhere near the 30-point mark
⛏️ The fact the Kyle Trask isn’t getting more Heisman love is sad. He’s a stud (as is Kyle Pitts), and the Gators might be the only team in the country that has a real shot at Alabama.
⛏️ I know I was wrong on my Oregon pick, but that’s one of those losses that doesn’t hurt as bad because it was just so funny to watch them lose to an 0-3 Cal team. Washington lost too, leaving USC as the only moderately relevant team left in the Pac 12, but that conference is just one disaster after another. Maybe they should have stuck with the Spring season.
⛏️ I don’t normally touch CFP rankings because nothing actually matters until the final one. But guys, come on? What the fuck are you doing. You’re telling me that a two loss Iowa State team is better than Cincinnati. That’s a joke. They’ve basically set up for the Big12 champion to hop to the 6 spot at the end of the year, despite both the Cyclones and Sooners having lost two games. Cincinnati deserves better than that.
⛏️ College basketball still ain’t doing a lot for me. I hop in to some of the bigger non conference games every once in a while, but its really just to fill some time between-meaningful football games.
⛏️ The only game I did watch was Syracuse battle #21 ranked Rutgers (what a bizarre statement). It was, unsurprisingly, not fun for me. My Orange haven’t had a good big man since Rakeem Christmas, and this zone doesn’t work with a soft rim protector. Its gonna be another long, sad year...
⛏️ Alright, a lot to unpack in the NFL. I’ll start by reiterating my hatred for the Texans and Colts. You both are the worst.
⛏️ Oh, the Falcons got beaten easily? I vaguely remember mentioning something about that last week.
⛏️ The Bears are the gift that keeps on giving. That blown fourth quarter lead was one of the funniest things I’ve watched in a long time. I’m starting to think Nagy actually deserves a second chance, since it cannot possibly be his fault that Mitch Trubisky is this bad.
⛏️ The Jets should be, at a minimum, fined massive amounts of money for intentionally throwing a game. Its not even a question that it was intentional. Two straight plays with no cover over the top when you’re up by 4? At least try to pretend that you want to win. But lets also not forget that the Raiders almost lost to the Jets. The fact that this team is 7-5 is one of the world’s great mysteries.
⛏️ And the Pats have officially given me hope. Not that the Chargers are any good, but damn was that fun to watch. The Bills are probably a bit out of reach, but this team could get a wild card for sure. (Additional Note: Just kidding! The Pats went out and embarrassed themselves on TNF. Cam Newton is terrible)
⛏️ Oh, Seattle. That was a true joy to watch. I hate Pete Carroll, so I take extra pleasure in seeing his demise, but if you didn’t laugh watching them get dismantled by a weak Giants team then you need to find more joy in your life. It’s almost hard to imagine that this organization was once a defensive powerhouse.
⛏️ I don’t really know what to make of that SNF game. The Chiefs won, so that’s all you need to know I guess? Probably just one to forget about.
⛏️ Speaking of head coaches I hate, it was nice to see Mike Tomlin lose to the Redskins. I probably should be focusing more on the great story that is Alex Smith’s comeback, but I live to laugh at the pain of people who have wronged me. And I will NEVER forgive Tomlin for ruining that punt return TD against the Ravens (it lost me a fantasy football matchup). The Steelers are still 11-1 though, so I think they’ll be ok.
⛏️ The Ravens and Bills won comfortably. Not sure there’s much else to say about those games. Lamar Jackson looked great against a weak opponent (shocker), come talk to me when he does it in a big game.
⛏️ There was a bunch of NBA offseason stuff, but for now I’ll just mention that I loved seeing John Wall get moved. He’s been buried at an awful franchise for too long, and, even if Harden leaves, the Rockets still should be decent enough to compete. I hope so, for his sake.
That’s all I’ve got. You’re probably bored of my blabbing anyway. But I’m avoiding work while sitting in the office, which I’m sure most of you can relate to. Just let me have this so I don’t have to do real things.
⚽ English Premier League Picks
I know what you’re thinking. “Prospector, of all the games on, why in the ever loving fuck are you giving me this one to bet on?” Well, my surly little friend, I go where the board takes me. When I saw this line I knew I had to add it in, because getting positive odds for Newcastle at home here is a steal. West Brom are atrocious. They lost 5-1 at the Hawthorns to Palace last week, and, other than a win against bottom dwellers Sheffield, they’ve picked up almost no points. Newcastle got an off week due to some fixture issues, and have fresh legs to face the Baggies. So at +130, this is a steal. Newcastle aren’t a great side, but they have middle-of-the-table talent, and these are the games that they have to win to stay comfortably away from relegation. I expect them to come out firing at West Brom, who have the worst goal differential in the Prem (including a league worst 23 goals against through 11 games). Newcastle have struggled on the offensive end this season, but nothing helps cure that problem like a matchup with the West Brom.
💰 Pick: Newcastle ML (+130)
I’m very confused. Legitimately, confused. This line doesn’t make a lick of sense to me. I know United have been all over the news for their struggles this season, but as of now they’re a point ahead of City through the same number of matches. And they’re +330 at home? I went into this game thinking I would love City, and I think that City are probably the better bet to win this game. But it’s a Derby between two good teams, and anything can happen. Giving United a 3:1 payout is absolutely bananas, and you’re a fool if you don’t take that value. For my bet, I’m sticking with old reliable though: United win with a draw no-bet. At +235 its still very good money for a game that is a lot closer than that line would suggest. I have to twist my brain a little bit on this one, because I think City are probably the better team, but the value is wrong for them here. Sometimes you have to bet smart, and know that you aren’t always going to be right in your assumptions. This game is a prime example of going where the money leads you.
💰 Pick: United Win – Draw No Bet.
Fulham vs. Liverpool + Everton vs. Chelsea
Yup, lets get weird over here. Liverpool is a shoe in to beat Fulham. Everybody knows it, and at -320 the odds reflect that fact pretty well. I’m not doing a lot for you by telling you to take them. But add in a Chelsea victory, and you’re cooking with fire. And I really like Chelsea to win this game. That has something to do with them taking 13 from their last 15 points, but more to do with just how bad things have been for Everton lately. This team is a mess right now, and that’s putting it nicely. Chelsea are a bit prone to mistakes and soft goals, which we saw last week in the opening few minutes against Leeds, but they just have too much firepower up front for Everton to handle. Parlay those two together, and you get to a much nice +132 payout for your Sunday morning viewing experience.
💰 Pick: Liverpool, Chelsea ML Parlay (+132)
🏈 College Football Picks
The college football season is really winding down, and you can see it on the game sheet. This might actually be the “biggest” game of the week, which is saying something. But, unlike last week, I actually see picks I like, including the over in this one. I watch a lot of Georgia football due to some familial connections, and this team is not the defensive power it was to start the year. Injuries have stripped that unit, including the loss of their best safety. On the other side, this offense looks A TON better with J.T. Daniels throwing the ball in stead of that leprechaun named Stetson Bennett. Overall, this team sets up for high scoring games in stead of low scoring right now. As for Missouri, they’ve put up over 90 points in their last two victories, including a 50-48 shootout with Arkansas last weekend. I think this total is skewed by the perception that Georgia is going to keep games slow, but the changes they’ve gone through in the course of the season have changed that reality. Take this one to be higher scoring, and cover 54.5 comfortably.
💰 Pick: Over 54.5
What crack are you people smoking. Wisconsin has no business being a favorite in this game. Sure, the Badgers started the season hot against Illinois and Michigan (which really doesn’t mean a lot), but their last two games have been train wrecks. An ugly loss at Northwestern followed by a defeat at home to an Indiana program without its starting QB. And they scored a combined 13 points in those two games. Iowa isn’t exactly the 2001 Miami Hurricanes, but they’ve rattled off 5 straight wins with some solid defense and have a +15 PPG differential on the year. There is just no reason they should be an underdog at home. Give me the Hawkeyes all day.
💰 Pick: Iowa +2.5
This is one of the most fun games to watch every year, and its great that its still happening even with Covid. Not that I would expect the pandemic to slow down the military, who probably can’t just take a few months off to avoid getting sick, but still. This game is a little scary to bet because its so meaningful that you can get some wild outcomes. Almost every major military member (and the President of the United States) is involved and has a stake in it, which tells you something. But, with all that said, Army is a way better football team than Navy. More accurately, Navy is just a bad football team. They give up 14 more PPG than they score and 120 more YPG. Army comes in at +14 points and +45 yards in those categories. I know this is a big rivalry, but nothing about this matchup suggests a close game. Army had a bit of a hiccup against Tulane (maybe a big one), but other than that their only loss is to #7 Cincinnati. They should run all over (literally, they average 300 rushing YPG) the Midshipmen. Take the Black Knights to win comfortably.
💰 Pick: Army -7
🏈 National Football League Picks
This game is a trap. I can feel it. I looked at that line, saw that the Giants were underdogs by 3 points at home, and was flabbergasted. It just doesn’t add up. The Giants have won 4 straight while the Cardinals have lost 3 straight. The Cardinals are making the dreaded West to East coast trip for an early slot game. They’re playing in a cold weather environment that will be easier for the Giants to play in since their used to it. So how in the heck are the Giants underdogs in this one? Well, maybe it has something to do with Colt McCoy starting, but still. I just know there is something wrong here. So I’m not doing it. Give me the under. To be fair, I think the under is also a great bet. The Giants prioritize running the ball, and none of their last 4 games would have reached this total. On top of that, there will be wind, and maybe even some rain, in NJ on Sunday, which will limit the passing game of either team. The Giant’s greatest skill is stopping the run, having given up under 100 YPG this season on the ground, and that is going to be a huge issue for the Cardinals. Overall, this just sets up to be a grind-it-out game, and I don’t love either tam to put up too many points. Turnovers in that weather are obviously a concern, but barring any bad mistakes I like this number. I wouldn’t blame you if you took the Giants too though.
💰 Pick: Under 45.5
I’m going to look like a real jackass here, but you have to be willing to put winning ahead of pride in the gambling world. I know I told you last week that betting the Falcons was a fool’s approach, but damn it if they aren’t a good pick on Sunday. The Chargers are in absolute freefall. They’ve basically called it quits on the season, and they looked bad in all three facets of the game last week. The Falcons are also not good, but they have picked things up on the defensive side of the ball since Quinn got fired, and have enough talent to do damage to a Chargers defense that has given up at least 27 points in each of their last 4 games. I feel dirty, but go with the Falcons to cover this one.
💰 Pick: Falcons -1.5
Let me start off by saying that betting this game is a terrible idea. Expecting the Browns or the Ravens to show up and perform in a big game is probably a bad idea. To be fair to the Ravens, that not so much an organizational issue as it is a “Lamar Jackson doesn’t play when the spotlight gets big” issue. The Browns, well, they’re the Browns. But here we are for a big MNF game in December between two playoff contenders, and I just cannot help myself. So what’s the play? I also can’t believe I’m doing this, but take the Browns. On the whole, they have been the much better team this year (ignore the week one blowout). Baker has had some rough patches, but he’s been throwing the ball well over the last few weeks. More importantly, the two headed dragon of Chubb and Hunt is the best tandem in the league at the RB position. Hell, either of these guys is probably better than over half of the starting backs in the league. Meanwhile, the Ravens best rusher is... their QB. It’s a cold weather game in Cleveland, and there will certainly be some wind. You are going to have to run the ball well if you want to win, and I like the Browns to successfully grind down the Ravens defense. The Browns are also surprisingly good at stopping the run, and completely contained Deshaun Watson in a similar style game a few weeks ago. The under probably isn’t a bad bet either, but I really do like the Browns pick more. Just try to pretend it’s an organization that isn’t a continual laughingstock, and look at the 9-3 record.
💰 Pick: Browns +2.5
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