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The Masters Betting - How Will LIV Golfers Jon Rahm, Cameron Smith and Brooks Koepka Perform at Augusta National?

The Masters Betting - How Will LIV Golfers Jon Rahm, Cameron Smith and Brooks Koepka Perform at Augusta National?

The Masters tees off on Thursday, April 11 at Augusta National Golf Club in Georgia. As a Major and an event that exists outside of the PGA TOUR, golfers (or defectors depending on who you ask) from LIV will be competing rather than just the PGA TOUR members like most weekly events.

Many of these golfers are household names and threats to make a run at Augusta - Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka, Cameron Smith are just a handful of the LIV crew who will be making an appearance.

While the PGA TOUR and the Saudi-backed LIV attempt to fulfill the merger plans announced nearly a year ago, for these golfers, the focus will be on securing the coveted green jacket, whether for the first time, or adding another to the closet.

Predicting the Masters with Dimers Pro

Our in-house golf models run simulations on each and every tournament to project how the entire field will perform over the course of the weekend, identifying a win probability and the best odds for each golfer. 

In addition to outright winners, we project the likelihood for each golfer to finish within the Top 20, Top 10 or Top 5, identifying opportunities where the odds are better than what they should be.

These simulations have identified an 80/1 winner with Wyndham Clark this year, as well as several other razor sharp predictions.

You can also use our Head-to-Head Predictor tool to simulate Round 1 or tournament-long matchups between any two golfers of your choosing.

For less than $1/day, Dimers Pro will give you unabated access to our PGA TOUR predictions for each and every tournament, as well as our predictions across every sport, every day.

Learn more here, or tap the card below to become a Dimers Pro!


List of LIV Golfers Playing at the 2024 Masters

Below you'll see the full list of golfers from LIV who will be competing at this year's Masters Tournament, along with their current OWGR.

GOLFER
RANKING
Jon Rahm*
3
Tyrell Hatton
19
Brooks Koepka
33
Adrian Meronk
57
Cameron Smith
68
Joaquin Niemann
93
Patrick Reed*
112
Phil Mickelson***
166
Bryson DeChambeau
210
Dustin Johnson*
336
Charl Schwartzel*
391
Sergio Garcia*
664
Bubba Watson**
2125

* denotes number of previous Masters wins


Jon Rahm (+1200 on BetMGM)

DimersBOT Win Probability: 4.0%

Last 5 Masters Results: WON (2023), T27 (2022), T5 (2021), T7 (2020), T9 (2019)

Jon Rahm is the highest-ranked LIV golfer in The Masters field and logically our highest projected winner out of that group. Though his 4.0% win probability seems small, he's also a top four overall projected winner per our model.

Rahm is the defending champion at Augusta after a come-from-behind win on a Sunday in which he had to shoot the better part of the third round as well due to rain on Saturday. More recently, he made headlines as the latest big name to make the move to LIV, where he's golfed nearly as well as could be, finishing between T3 and T8 in all five events this year.

DimersBOT says: While Rahm is likely to compete, getting a 50% probability of a Top 20 finish or better, we'd like to see a better price for him to win, as our fair odds would be +2400, double what he's at now.

⛳ Full Masters Tournament Projections

Brooks Koepka (+2000 on BetMGM)

DimersBOT Win Probability: 3.5%

Last 5 Masters Results: T2 (2023), CUT (2022), CUT (2021), T7 (2020), T2 (2019)

Brooks Koepka has been a LIV darling since its inception, butting heads with the PGA TOUR while lighting it up in LIV competition, despite entering The Masters while coming off his worst LIV finish yet with a T45.

Koepka has nine career wins on the PGA TOUR with five Major victories, though the green jacket continues to evade him with a pair of T2 finishes, including last year when he led after Round 3.

DimersBOT says: This year, Koepka's 3.5% win probability is the sixth-highest in the field and is closer to the price he should be compared to Rahm, though you still want to see it closer to +2800.

Cameron Smith (+4500 on BetMGM)

DimersBOT Win Probability: 3.4%

Last 5 Masters Results: T34 (2023), T3 (2022), 2021 (T10), T2 (2020), T51 (2019)

Australian Cameron Smith is coming off a withdrawal at last week's LIV tournament due to illness, so we'll have to see if he's feeling fit enough to tee off on Thursday. With LIV, Smith ahs picked up 4 tournament wins in his career and as a 2nd-place finish this year.

On the TOUR, Smith has finished as high as T3 at The Masters back in 2022 and finished T34 last year, with a lone Major win at the 2022 Open Championship. He has some of the strongest recent Masters history with three Top 10s in the past four years.

DimersBOT says: For now, his 3.4% probability to win is the seventh-highest according to our model. He's also a major value play, as that calculates to a fair price of +2850, while he sits as high as +4500 on BetMGM! that implies only a 2.2% probability to win. Furthermore, you'll find value on Smith in the Top 20, Top 10 and top 5 markets as well.

 

Joaquin Niemann (+3000 on BetMGM)

DimersBOT Win Probability: 1.9%

Last 5 Masters Results: T16 (2023), T35 (2022), T40 (2021), CUT (2018)

Chilean Joaquin Niemann is having his best year yet, particularly since joining LIV two years ago. He's got two wins in five events this year, plus a T4 and a T9. 

Historically, he's not performed overly well at Majors, with three Top-25 finishes in 19 events, finishing as high as T16 at The Masters last year. Perhaps he's ready to take the next step on professional golf's biggest stage.

DimersBOT says: Niemann gets a 1.9% probability to win which is small, but it is in the Top 15 overall, which means he is projected to at least contend with the field. However, he's priced poorly compared to those around him; while he sits at +3000, the next 12 golfers projected to finish worse than Niemann according to our model have better odds.

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Dustin Johnson (+4000 on BetMGM)

DimersBOT Win Probability: 1.5%

Last 5 Masters Results: T48 (2023), T12 (2022), CUT (2021), WON (2020), T2 (2019)

The second of two former Masters winners in our Top 5 LIV projections is 2020 Masters champion Dustin Johnson, who knows how to show up in the big moments, with a T2 or better at least once in each of the four Major championships.

A LIV original, Johnson has picked up three wins since the move, including one this year. As far as The Masters, he's trended down each year since his 2020 win.

DimersBOT says: DJ should be appropriately priced at +6500 according to our model, and we give him well under a 50% probability to finish with a Top 20 this year

Dimers' Betting Resources for The Masters

The Masters Tournament Projections

Dimers' Head-to-Head Predictor Tool

Our In-House Golfer Rankings

Dimers' Biggest Wins of 2024

Retrospect: Masters Record Holders

Dave Garofolo
Content Producer

Dave Garofolo, a seasoned fantasy sports and betting enthusiast with a special affection for MLB and NFL, uses his deep knowledge to craft game previews for the NBA, MLB, and NFL. He also brings his expertise to the golf world with tournament previews and parlays for the PGA TOUR and major golf tournaments. Additionally, Dave offers valuable props for NBA, MLB, NHL, and NCAAM basketball, along with best bets for MLB, NHL, and NCAAM. 

When not delving into the world of sports, Dave is an avid advocate for New Haven pizza, enjoys reading comic books, gardening, and spending time with his cats. His broad interests and detailed sports insights ensure that his contributions are both engaging and informative.

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