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Stanley Cup Predictions: Bet on these NHL teams to win it all as league breaks for Olympics
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Reviewed by Nick Slade
With the NHL on break for the Olympics, we take a look at the Dimers predictions for the Stanley Cup to find which teams have value to win it all this season.
The NHL schedule has hit pause for the Olympic break, which makes it a perfect time to zoom out and reevaluate the Stanley Cup futures market.
With no nightly results swinging the odds, bettors get a clean snapshot of how teams truly stack up and that’s where comparing the Dimers projection model to sportsbook odds becomes especially valuable.
By lining up each team’s simulated championship probability against the market price, we can spot which contenders are being overvalued by reputation and which clubs are quietly offering real betting value, something our models excel at, cashing these +1300 and +2000 MLB and WNBA season futures this past year.
As we recharge over the break, let's use the Dimers NHL Futures model to see where the best betting value sits before the stretch run begins.
Most likely to beat the favorite
The defending champion Florida Panthers entered the year chasing a historic three-peat, but instead they head into the break in a surprising position, sitting eight points out of a playoff spot and currently hunting a Wild Card in the Eastern Conference.
Meanwhile, the rest of the league has spent months trying to keep pace with the Colorado Avalanche, who have been installed as the Stanley Cup favorite for much of the season and continue to look like the benchmark contender.
The Avalanche have been the short favorite for months, only recently showing some cracks in the armor. 9 of their 18 total losses have come in the current calendar year, and they still hold a five-point advantage in the Western Conference standings.
Looking to get back to the Final after their 2021-22 Cup-hoisting campaign, everyone is chasing down Colorado.
Only two other teams have odds shorter than +1000 to win it all, the Tampa Bay Lightning at +500 and the Carolina Hurricanes, the preseason favorite with their odds virtually unchanged at +750.
As they're both Eastern Conference teams, they won't get a chance to knock off the top-seed until a potential showdown in the Finals, though one of them gets an edge to do that (more on that shortly).
The Pacific-leading Vegas Golden Knights clock in with the fourth-best odds to win it all, the top-ranked team from the Western Conference by our model behind the Avs.
Yet, they sit at just a 5.4% probability, implying fair odds of +1750, a far cry from their current best odds of +1100.
Bet these teams to win the Stanley Cup
That's how the top of the board looks from a surface-level perspective. Now, let's dig into the value identified by the Dimers model, beginning with the aforementioned team in the East who holds an edge.
Tampa Bay Lightning (+500 on FanDuel)
The only top contender by odds with an edge, we previously featured the Lightning in our preseason look at NHL futures, and they've seen their probability more than triple since then.
The Dimers model gives the Lightning a 21.8% chance to win the Stanley Cup, which implies fair odds around +360, yet sportsbooks are offering closer to +500. That’s a sizable edge on a team that has surged from just a 6.0% preseason probability into one of the league’s true favorites.
Tampa Bay is 13-1-1 since January 1, the best record in the NHL over that stretch and they enter the Olympic break atop the Atlantic Division at 37-14-4, playing like a club peaking at the right time.
Andrei Vasilevskiy is again performing like the best goalie in hockey with 27 wins, a .920 save percentage, and a 2.11 GAA.
The Lightning haven’t escaped the first round in three seasons, but with Jon Cooper behind the bench and a healthy roster coming out of the Olympic break, Tampa Bay looks far closer to a Cup favorite than a +500 team who won second of back-to-back titles just 5 years ago.
Utah Mammoth (+4500 on BetRivers)
Utah is the most mispriced team on the Stanley Cup board right now.
The Dimers model gives the Mammoth a 4.5% championship probability, equivalent to fair odds of roughly +2120, yet sportsbooks are offering numbers as long as +4500.
That’s a big gap for a team the model rates as its fifth-most likely Cup winner, ahead of Western Conference heavyweights Dallas and Minnesota (both 4.4%).
The Mammoth feel out of place as a Wild Card team; they're the only one in the West with a positive goal differential at +26, while the next closest team (Anaheim) sits at -10.
They also have elite goaltending, led by Karel Vejmelka, currently the winningest goalies in the league, giving them the kind of high-end netminding that often drives playoff runs.
And the ceiling could still rise as the front office has reportedly explored adding a top-line player, with names like Nazem Kadri and Elias Pettersson linked as potential targets.
Aside from the value identified at the Mammoth's best odds, the price discrepancy across books is drastic.
Though they can be found for +4500 on BetRivers, they are all over the place, priced at +2800 on DraftKings, +3500 on Bet365 and +4000 on FanDuel.
If the books can't agree on the Mammoth, that signals a bet worth making.
Buffalo Sabres (+4000 on FanDuel)
Buffalo is one of the clearest examples of a team the futures market hasn’t fully caught up to yet.
The Dimers model gives the Sabres a 3.3% chance to win the Stanley Cup, which translates to fair odds around +2930, yet sportsbooks are still hanging prices near +4000.
Buffalo currently holds the top Wild Card position in the Eastern Conference and even with Columbus charging on a 9-1-0 run, the Sabres still maintain a five-point cushion.
The bigger story is how legitimate their form has become after being a massive preseason underdog.
Buffalo is 21-4-2 over its last 27 games, playing like a true contender rather than a fringe playoff team and putting itself on track to end a 14-year postseason drought dating back to 2011.
The market is still pricing the Sabres like a bubble team while their recent results suggest something closer to a dangerous playoff contender. Hot teams often become postseason problems in the NHL, and if Buffalo carries this level of play into April, +4000 will be long gone.
Buffalo has never won a Cup and hasn't sniffed one since 1999 - could the +10000 preseason underdogs finally be in the chase?
Dimers' NHL betting resources for the 2025-26 season
- NHL Game Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every NHL matchup, every day.
- NHL Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game.
- Stanley Cup Odds: Who will hoist the Stanley Cup?
- Best NHL Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
- NHL Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league
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To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Nick Slade through our fact-checking process.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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