Prospector Sam's Soccer Picks and Predictions – Ligue 1, Championship, Swiss Super League Bets

He's back! Prospector Sam was the best free capper in the game last season and he's back with his weekly free soccer picks.

Woah. Am I about to write an actual gambling article? You bet your ass I am. It’s been a long time since I put fingers to keys for one of these pieces, about 2.5 months to be exact, but it’s good to be back in the thick of it. Don’t get me wrong, I had a lot of fun writing all of the weird and unnecessary articles that I put out over the last couple of months, but it’s time to get to work on my true sports gambling love; the world of winners.

The return of sports that I bet on is well timed too. I’m a fairly big advocate for the principle that I should only give out picks I feel confident in, which does not include baseball or the NBA playoffs, but I missed giving out picks because there’s a little bit of an extra rush when I know people are relying on me. On top of that, it has come to my attention that this is what you people want, whether I like it or not.

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I came to write for Dimers with zero experience in sports media, but they gave me a platform when I doubt anyone else would. Even better, they basically let me run wild like a kindergartner in a room full of candy, choosing whatever format I wanted and indulging myself in the topics that I felt like writing about. And, to their credit, they have probably been too lenient because the statistics show my gambling articles do way fucking better than my creative pieces. Not surprising, since their/our whole audience is gamblers who don’t care about my frivolous nonsense, but a reality I need to be aware of.

That matters here because, while Dimers is better to me than I probably deserve, this isn’t just about what I want. This group of guys welcomed me in and gave me a chance to be heard, and I owe it to them to make myself as useful as possible in their quest to grow and become a significant player in the American sports gambling landscape. So, while my forays into ranking Olympic sports or choosing the best animals to trust when gambling are fun, it’s time to get back to paying the bills (figuratively speaking, I don’t have any insight into the actual business).

MORE: How to bet on European soccer

There’s good news for all of you in this too. My best gambling comes from European Soccer, Football (both NFL and college), and CBB. That means the next 6 months are the months that keep the lights on. I wasn’t a part of Dimers until almost December last year, but my soccer picks went +30 units in 6 months betting 1 unit per wager, and I was profitable for March Madness as well. That means we can all make money together. And I’ll be breaking out articles by sport this year, so you’ll be able to go right to the good stuff rather than a mess of picks all in one place (along with putting units for each bet!). Since football isn’t here quite yet, this will be the week’s only article with all my soccer picks, but look out for more short articles from me moving forward. Now, without further ado, welcome back the return of what you all really want to see!

⚽ Ligue 1 Picks

Big Boy Parlay

Normally, I’m reluctant to get aggressive on Parlays. They are, undoubtedly, not the smartest way to gamble most of the time. That said, every rule has an exception, and soccer provides some solid opportunities to use parlays when faced with a lot of mismatches. This is week 1 of the Ligue 1 season, which is not a league traditionally known for it's parity, and they’ve basically provided tune up games for all of the biggest clubs. Monaco finished in 3rd last season and are facing a Nantes side that finished in 18th (and stayed in the top flight by surviving the relegation playoff).

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Lyon finished in 4th last year and are facing Brest who outperformed Nantes by one spot to finish 17th. And, last but not least (well, maybe least as far as the opponent), PSG will be facing newly promoted ESTAC Troyes. At -210, -310, and -350 respectively, I’m not going to do a whole lot for anyone by suggesting those MLs by themselves. But, at +151 for the three leg parlay, we’re frying a much bigger fish if we stick them together.

Is this an “unlosable parlay” or some other silly term thrown around by handicappers looking to sell you picks? No, of course not. Nantes is probably the most dangerous opportunity for an upset, especially when you remember that they only had a -8 GD last year which is WILD for a team finishing in 18th. But I think Monaco has enough juice to beat them, and the other two should as well.

💰 Pick: ML Parlay (+151, 1 unit)

PSG-ESTAC Troyes

PSG are coming off a disappointing season, which for them means not winning the title. The biggest name in French soccer finished 2nd behind Lille by a single point, and the oil barons funding this operation aren’t too happy about that if I had to guess. None of that is good news for ESTAC Troy, a relative minnow up against a metaphorical great white shark. More importantly, for me, is that PSG are not known for having any mercy against lesser opposition. The Parisians put up a whopping +58 goal differential last season in 38 games, and only 26 of them were wins (which means they averaged winning by well over 2 goals per win). So what’s the play? I really like PSG to put up a crooked number against a promoted side who won’t have adjusted to the speed and quality of play in the top flight yet. I’ll be taking PSG over 2.5 which has solid value at +124, AND I’ll be taking PSG over 3.5 for half a unit which is still good value at +350. If ESTAC can hold on for dear life and keep PSG off the board for most of the first half then there could be trouble, but the disparity in talent is just too big for me. Look for an early August massacre.

💰 Picks: PSG Over 2.5 (+124, 1 unit) PSG Over 3.5 (+350, 0.5 units)

⚽ English Championship Picks

Bournemouth-WBA

Typically, I don’t wander down into the Championship for bets because secondary divisions tend to be a bit more dicey and erratic. That said, I watch so much fucking English soccer that I find myself able to comfortably wade these waters on occasion, and will do so now (mostly because the PL hasn’t started yet which is very annoying). I love the over in this game. For anyone who watched a minute of the PL last year, you will remember that WBA couldn’t stop a ham sandwich from scoring let alone a soccer team.

MORE: How to live bet on soccer

The Baggies gave up 76 goals and had a -41 GD on the way to relegation. Conversely, Bournemouth have thrived as a second tier club. They never really managed much in the top flight, but had a solid season last year that qualified them for the Championship playoff while averaging almost 2 goals per game. Sure, West Brom will likely fair better against these offenses than they did against Man City or Liverpool, but they still aren’t solid enough to expect a clean sheet. Their roster is also talented enough, having just been relegated, to put in a solid offensive effort and cause problems for the Cherries on that end. I like this game to be higher scoring, and at +106 the money is right for the risk.

💰 Pick: Over 2.5 (+106,  1 unit)

Sheffield-Birmingham

Absolutely nobody on the god damn planet was harder on Sheffield last year than I was. They embarrassed themselves from start to finish, ending the year on 23 points and a last place spot. Buuutttttt, even if I don’t want to give them a lot of credit, they definitely have a leg up in their week 1 match against a Birmingham side who was second to last in the Championship in GD last year and were lucky to survive the drop. Sure, Sheffield still have offensive issues to sort out, but two years in the Premier League will have given them the money and experience to succeed in the smaller pond that is the Championship (I guess aquatic metaphors are the theme of the day?). I think, at home, they’ll be well positioned to win this match and the money is decent at -120. It’s not my favorite pick of the week, but I think the probability outkicks the risk.

💰 Pick: Sheffield ML (-120, 1 unit)

⚽ Swiss Super League Picks

Basel-Servette

Basel look like they’re ready to start manhandling the Super League again. It’s been nearly 5 years since the Swiss giants have won the title, but their form to start the year has been nothing short of impressive. I tuned in to watch them play Scion on Saturday, but had toshut it off at half because, at 5-0, it felt like I was watching Tiger Woods beat a kindergartner in match play. Servette won’t be quite so outmatched, but they’re hardly a side that has the guns to compete with Basel either. They lost 2-0 at home to powerhouse Lugano (by powerhouse, I mean rusting trailer home with its wheels on cinder blocks) over the weekend, and don’t look to be the same overperforming side they were last year when they finished 3rd in the table. So, at even money for Basel to win on their home turf, I think you’re getting a solid payout for what you’re buying into. I would have put Basel closer to -140 or -150 based on the matchup, and at a 1:1 I like this bet a lot.

💰 Pick: Basel ML (+100, 2 units)

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