Prospector Sam - 2021 College Football Season Futures: Picks, Predictions and Odds

College Football can be a wild time for sports and predictions, so with so much action around the country, we've turned to the best CFB capper in the game, Prospector Sam, to run through the National Championship hopes of fifteen teams for the 2021 College Football season.

College Football is finally here! After 7 months without a single game (unless you count FCS or you root for one of those weird schools who takes their Spring game seriously) “amateur” football is returning accompanied by the glorious fall Saturdays that come with it.

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And, to add some extra spice to the anticipation, EVERYTHING has changed. The new NIL rules allowing players to make money off their likeness kicked in on July 1, which will have a huge impact on college football. Nick Saban mentioned at SEC media days that his projected QB1 has amassed close to a million in sponsorships without starting a single game, and it’s all up/down hill from here (depending on your perspective, I suppose)

Oh, and there’s the impending massive shift in the conference landscape, which was cemented when Oklahoma and Texas were accepted into the SEC for 2025. Not only is the end near for the Big 12, but there are a number of dominoes that are going to need to fall over the next couple of years to get back to some level of stability in the college sports world (which will inevitably crumble in a decade when everything changes again).

But, with all that aside, it’s time to focus on this year, and to discuss some potential futures bets to make money over the long term. I’ll be giving out weekly picks on individual games throughout the fall, but this article is more about projecting how things will shake out in the CFP Championship and conference championships. I’m also conveniently equipped with Dimers’ data projections, so I’ll be sharing that high value information as well to supplement my own analysis.

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Without further ado, my preview of the upcoming season with an eye towards making money on College Football Futures ⤵️

Alabama National Championship Odds: +250

Alabama SEC Championship Odds: -160

Alabama CFP National Championship Probability: 25.8%

I don’t need to say much here. Alabama is Alabama. They always have a solid chance to win the title regardless of how many star players they’ve lost, because their backups are probably good enough to start on almost any team. Also, while the Tide are replacing a TON of offensive talent, it’s important to remember that they’re returning 5-star players in some of the less glorious positions. And that, right there, is the key to Alabama’s success.

There are a bunch of talented high schoolers who want to play QB or WR or DE, but Alabama also gets the best at nose tackle and right guard, and that advantage can’t be understated. A lot will rest on how well projected QB Bryce Young does as the starter, but betting against Alabama to win is always a dangerous game. I’m not sure the value is good enough at just +250 for the national title, but an SEC championship appearance is almost a given and you could make some solid money at -160 for that wager.

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Clemson National Championship Odds: +400

Clemson ACC Championship Odds: -900

Clemson CFP National Championship Probability: 20.2%

Clemson’s biggest asset is that it would be very difficult for them to not make the CFB Playoff. A loss in their opener to UGA would hurt, but that’s about the only team on their whole schedule that has the talent to compete with the Tigers. Aside from a slightly tricky game with South Carolina and a potential ACC Championship game with UNC, it just seems very unlikely that Clemson will be stopped before the semi finals. That said, as we saw last season, this program is prone to bad losses, in large part because the jump in competition from the ACC to the CFP is so big. I really like this Clemson team and I think DJ Uiagalelei could be great, but they’re replacing so much production with the loss of Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne on offense, and the lack of challengers in the ACC doesn’t bode well for late season games against better programs. I would stay away from them, especially at just a 4:1 payout. As for the ACC title, -900 probably isn’t worth your time either.

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Georgia National Championship Odds: +500

Georgia SEC Championship Odds: +190

Georgia CFP National Championship Probability: 4.1%

History tells us one thing about Georgia: their yearly quest for a National Championship usually doesn’t have a happy ending. Every season UGA’s talent is up there with the best, but they consistently lose big games and never seem capable of making the final step. That said, they’re well positioned this year because Florida has been gutted by the NFL and the SEC East is there for the taking, which makes a conference title appearance more likely. The Dawgs aren’t a team I would put money on for the national championship, but they have some upside at +190 for the SEC Championship if Alabama finally takes a dip in performance (which, theoretically, has to happen eventually). Sprinkling some money on UGA for that SEC crown has some value, and the odds will only drop if they win that big week 1 matchup.

Ohio State National Championship Odds: +600

Ohio State Big 10 Championship Odds: -220

Ohio State CFP National Championship Probability: 9.8%

Ohio State to win the Big 10 is probably my favorite bet in this entire article. Simply put, nobody in that conference is in the same league as them talent wise, and their odds should be closer to Clemson’s -900 in the ACC. There are always land mines in the Big 10, but no team will have the horses at non-skill positions to compete with the Buckeyes.

Their QB situation is an obvious question mark that could concern bettors, but Ryan Day has impressed the hell out of me since taking over this program and I have faith that he gets this ship moving in the right direction quickly. OSU has won the last 4 Big 10 titles, and nothing tells me that will change. As for the National Championship, there’s certainly value here as well. Alabama is dealing with more turnover than normal so there isn’t a team in the country that’s far better than the Buckeyes. I expect this number will only go down as the season progresses, so +600 is a good price to hop on early if you like the Buckeyes.

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Oklahoma National Championship Odds: +800

Oklahoma Big 12 Championship Odds: -170

Oklahoma CFP National Championship Probability: 15.2%

These days, the Big 12 begins and ends with Oklahoma. The Sooners have won the last 6 conference championships, including lifting last year’s trophy despite replacing ANOTHER Heisman trophy winning QB. But Oklahoma’s strength goes far beyond one position. They consistently bring in the best recruiting classes in the conference (which is shocking, because getting someone to move to Norman feels like a herculean task), and they’ve shown they can win big games. Simply, the smart money is on the Sooners to take that trophy again. Spencer Rattler is the preseason favorite to win the Heisman, and they should be better than the rest of their competition. At +800 they could also be worth a flier for the National Championship, but Oklahoma is still lagging a bit behind the biggest programs in the country in my opinion. They’re 0-4 in CFB Playoff games, even with Heisman winners starting for them in two of the appearances. At the current number, it’s probably not enough payout for the money.

Iowa State National Championship Odds: +2500

Iowa State Big 12 Championship Odds: +250

Iowa State CFP National Championship Probability: 3.6%

As you can see, this is where the odds jump from real contenders to long shots. And, quite honestly, I think this number is still extremely generous. Iowa State had a great season last year, over performing (after a nightmare loss at home in week 1 against ULL) to finish 10th in the final pole. But that was last season, and this roster just doesn’t have the talent to compete at the national level. Matt Campbell has worked wonders for this program and they’re returning some key starters including Brock Purdy. But the Cyclones team will need to outplay more talented teams a few times this year to even sniff the Big12 Playoffs. I wouldn’t be touching the Cyclones at either of those numbers.

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Florida National Championship Odds: +4000

Florida SEC Championship Odds: +1800

Florida CFP National Championship Probability: 1.9%

There is just no way to ignore what Florida lost. Trask, Toney, and Pitts all went in the first two rounds, and they lost 5 more starters later on in the NFL draft. Florida certainly has the recruiting pipeline to replace those players with skilled new ones, but it all feels a bit too much this year. That’s particularly true this season because their cross-conference opponents are Alabama and LSU, which will pose huge problems for them to even make the SEC Championship. Expect this to be more of a rebuilding year for the Gators.

Texas A&M National Championship Odds: +4000

Texas A&M SEC Championship Odds: +1200

Texas A&M CFP National Championship Probability: 1.6%

How important was Kellen Mond? That’s going to be the big question for A&M, who relied on his talent to push the program to the brink of the playoffs last year. Unfortunately, asking them to lift a trophy seems beyond their capabilities this season. They’re already fighting an uphill battle in the SEC West, which means they’ll have to overcome some of the biggest programs in the country just to make it to a conference championship game.

And, as we saw last year, this program doesn’t have enough clout to make the playoffs without a conference trophy. Jimbo is doing a lot of great things in College Station, and they’ll inevitably break out at some point. But expecting it to happen immediately after losing a QB who holds the records for career passing yards and touchdowns in program history feels like a bit of a stretch. I wouldn’t be putting my money here.

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LSU National Championship Odds: +5000

LSU SEC Championship Odds: +2500

LSU CFP National Championship Probability

Something just tells me not to count out Ed Orgeron and the LSU Tigers. They’re the only team that’s been able to get the better of Saban recently, and they have some sneaky value coming off a disappointing season. It’s also important to remember that 2020 gave a lot of new players a season of starting games under their belt and I wouldn’t be surprised if they came out and overperformed in 2021. Am I going to bet a lot on them? No. But at 25:1 on the SEC Title and 50:1 on the National Championship I like their value a lot more than some of the other teams in this range.

UNC National Championship Odds: +5000

UNC ACC Championship Odds: +1000

UNC CFP National Championship Probability

Looking for a good longshot? This is your bet. UNC has completely turned around their program with Mack Brown at the helm, and they’re bringing in talent to make them the clear second best team in the league (sorry Miami fans, but it’s true). UNC will have to beat out those ‘Canes for their ACC division title, but that matchup is in Chapel Hill which is a huge boost for the Tar Heels. I think they make it to the ACC title game, where they obviously will face an uphill battle if they want to beat Clemson. But, as stated, the Tigers are replacing a lot of talent and a couple of bad injuries for Clemson could be enough to even out the matchup and make UNC competitive. At +1000 to win the ACC, the money is damn good in my opinion. Don’t get trigger happy and start thinking about national championships though, the Heels still aren’t ready for that stage.

Oregon National Championship Odds: +5000

Oregon Pac 12 Championship Odds: +250

Oregon CFP National Championship Probability: 2.9%

The Pac 12 appears insistent on cannibalizing themselves every year. The conference hasn’t been represented in the CFB Playoffs since the 2016-2017 season, mostly because no team ever makes it out of the regular season without a couple of head-scratching losses. On top of that, the whole conference really just isn’t that good any more.

The Pac 12 struggles to bring in the same level of talent as the rest of the Power 5, and in their two CFB Playoff appearances they’ve lost by a combined score of 83-27. Save your money on the National Championship odds, it’s just wasted money. As for the Pac 12 Championship, though, I think the Ducks are a great bet. Oregon returns most of its offense and had the 6th best recruiting class in the country. With two straight conference titles under their belt, this race is theirs to lose and the money is solid at +250.

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Wisconsin National Championship Odds: +5000

Wisconsin Big 10 Championship Odds: +600

Wisconsin CFP National Championship Probability: 2.6%

There’s something oddly charming about Wisconsin’s insistence on playing football like it’s still 1950. Unfortunately, it doesn’t make a lot of tactical sense in the current college football landscape (unless you’re playing a game in Maddison in December), and last time I checked nobody seems interested in hosting the Big 10 Championship or CFB Playoff in sub-0 temperatures. Could they surprise some people? Sure, Wisconsin has a clear path to the Conference Championship as the top team in the Big 10 West, but Ohio State is too good for them unless the Buckeyes face some serious injury issues.  

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Notre Dame National Championship Odds: +8000

Notre Dame CFP National Championship Probability

I’m mostly just including this to mention that there is no greater certainty that you are donating money to a sports book than betting Notre Dame to win a National Championship. Brian Kelly’s statements following the CFB Semi Final last season were both sad and true. This team should be proud to make it that far and to only lose by 17 to Alabama. The Irish just don’t have the talent any more, and that isn’t going to change any time soon.

Washington National Championship Odds: +10000

Washington Pac 12 Championship Odds: +350

Washington CFP National Championship Probability: 1.6%

Betting Washington is an interesting idea. Setting aside the unlikely chance of a National Championship, this program has been consistently competitive and successful at the conference level.

Unfortunately, I just don’t think they have the horses to take the Pac 12 right now. Oregon, USC, and even UCLA consistently out-recruit them and it’s going to be hard to keep up with those teams at all 22 positions. If Sam Huard turns out to be the 5-star stud he’s projected to be, they could be primed for big seasons soon, but I think this year is a bit too early for them.

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Boston College National Championship Odds: +25000

Boston College ACC Championship Odds: +3000

Boston College CFP National Championship Probability

Just humor me. BC is my alma mater and, despite how painful it can be to root for them, I still make time to watch the Eagles and champion their hopeless cause. Are they going to win anything? Absolutely not. But I like to pretend there’s a faint possibility before we lose to some terrible team two weeks into the season.