Predictive Analytics Model Assesses How Deshaun Watson's Suspension Impacts Cleveland Browns Futures Betting

The Deshaun Watson saga has been absolutely exhausting, but the controversial Cleveland Browns quarterback was finally given a six-game suspension earlier this month. Whether or not that punishment fits the crime is highly debatable — the NFL is still pursuing a one-year suspension for the former Houston Texans superstar — but we’re not going to get into that here. Instead, we’re looking at the on-field implications of what his absence will mean to the Browns from a betting standpoint.

In case you didn’t already know, our predictive analytics model, DimersBOT, runs 10,000 simulations of every game in every NFL season. This allows us to really get a good look at how each season will go, but our talented group of data scientists actually ran this seasons simulations twice.

The first time was with Watson playing a full 17-game season with Cleveland, and the second factors in his six-game suspension. The results of the exercise probably aren’t what you’d expect, which is why we feel the need to dive into it. Here is what the Watson suspension really means as far as betting on Cleveland futures:

How Deshaun Watson’s Suspension Impacts Cleveland Browns Futures Betting

Before we knew how long Watson would be out for, DimersBOT gave the Browns a 46.0% chance at making the postseason. That’s the 18th-highest probability out of all teams to make the playoffs. With the six-game suspension factored in, that percentage only went down to 43.9% and was still the 18th-highest probability in football. “Now why is that?” is what you might be asking in your best Brian Windhorst voice (he coincidentally happens to be a Cleveland legend). Well, there are quite a few reasons.

First, it’s important to note that Cleveland brought in Jacoby Brissett in the offseason. The 29-year-old has proven to be one of the best backups in football, as he has been a serviceable plug-in option for the New England Patriots, Indianapolis Colts and Miami Dolphins to this point.

Brissett actually saw extended playing time in both the 2017 and 2019 seasons when he was in Indianapolis. In 27 combined games played across those two years, Brissett threw for 6,040 yards with 31 touchdowns and only 13 interceptions.

Brissett is never going to carve up an opposing defense, but he’s fundamentally sound and can surely manage games effectively. With the talent around him, that’s enough to make the Browns a team with a very high floor — even if they’d also have a low ceiling. Cleveland is very much built to be a run-first football team, as it has an elite group of running backs and a very good defense. The Browns can lean on that identity with or without Watson in the fold.

"Jacoby Brissett has been there since March & he's gone through the entire offseason program.. he's got all the metrics you need to be an NFL QB" ~ Chuck Pagano#PMSLive pic.twitter.com/gBFusidhZd

— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) August 1, 2022

The other thing you’ll want to keep in mind is probably more important and that is that the Browns have an extremely soft early-season schedule. Cleveland will face the Carolina Panthers, New York Jets, Pittsburgh Steelers and Atlanta Falcons over the first four weeks of the year.

The match-up with the Steelers is the hardest of the four, but it also happens to be a home game. It isn’t crazy to think that Cleveland can emerge from that stretch with a 4-0 record, and anything worse than 3-1 would actually be viewed as a major disappointment.

From there, the Browns will take on the Los Angeles Chargers and New England Patriots before getting Watson back. If Cleveland can handle its business in the first four games, the team would be playing with house money in those last two.

Would a 2020 version of Watson make the Browns the favorites to win all six of those games? Absolutely. But the overall point here is that Cleveland should be favored in a majority of those games regardless. The important thing for the Browns is that the superstar will be returning in time to play a majority of the games, and they have the infrastructure in place to weather the storm without him.

We do expect Watson to find his A-game eventually, but we did think it was important to note that we hardly even view his six-game absence as a hiccup. That actually presents some real opportunity on the betting market, if you’re high on the Browns.

The average bettor hears about a six-game suspension for a superstar and immediately thinks of the worst-case scenario. But Cleveland’s regular season win total sits at 8.5 and is going off at plus-money if you’re looking to take the Over. And our season simulations saw the Browns winning an average of 8.86 games per year, even with Watson out the first six weeks. That means there’s a legitimate edge on the Over, which currently pays out nicely.

You can also take things a step further and back Cleveland to win the AFC North, AFC Championship or even Super Bowl 57. Watson might not change the floor of the Browns all that much, but he does significantly raise their ceiling. If he’s at his very best, this team absolutely has what it takes to contend at the highest level.