PGA Tour Expert Picks: Wyndham Championship Predictions and Best Bets

We got off to a hot start last week at the 3M Open, with Hideki Matsuyama shooting out to an early share of the lead and our other pick Eric Cole nestling in the top 20 early on, but it wasn't meant to be. Matsuyama tumbled down the board as the weekend went on and Eric Cole showed his fight, but was outpaced by the low scorers at the top.

This week will see golfers on the bubble looking to secure their spot in the FedEx Cup Playoffs. Plenty of the big names who have already locked up their spot will once again be sitting out of this event. You won't find the likes of Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy competing this weekend, so with another slimmed-down field, let's hunt for some value!

We're attacking this weekend's event, the Wyndham Championship, just as we always do with our favorite outright winners and placement bets backed by our model. 

Rory McIlroy and Phil Mickelson when they get paired together after the PGA-LIV merger: pic.twitter.com/urY9zpHr86

— Dimers.com (@DimersCom) June 6, 2023

We have a handful of Best Bets worth taking, let's dive in. Also, make sure you visit Dimers all golf season, where we'll be feeding you our PGA best bets on a weekly basis. These PGA predictions are made with our predictive analytics model and world-class artificial intelligence, and our data has already found some nice edges to start the year. 

Dimers' Golf H2H Matchup Tool compares our model's head-to-head probabilities for golfers competing in the current PGA Tour tournament. Choose your players and switch between Fair Odds or Percentages.

Betting on golf is a great way to take advantage of new promotions from the sportsbooks, especially at BetMGM where new users can bet on any of these picks and get their first bet back up to $1,000 if it loses.

Who will win the 2023 Wyndham Championship?

This Week's PGA Tour Top-Five Win Probabilities

To make things easy for you, we listed the highest probabilities to win and our best PGA Golf bets for the Wyndham Championship, down below:

	WIN	TOP 5	TOP 10
Hideki Matsuyama	5.3%	18.4%	29.3%
Denny McCarthy	4.9%	18.2%	28.8%
Russell Henley	4.7%	16.4%	26.9%
Adam Scott	3.8%	14.5%	24.7%
Sungjae Im	3.4%	13.6%	24.0%

Wyndham Championship Betting Preview

Sedgefield Country Club is a par 70 that totals 76,131 yards. The course has alternated courses in Carolina over the past 85 years but has stayed put at Sedgefield since 2008. For some perspective on how many top golfers are sitting this one out, per our in-house rankings, Hideki Matsuyama at #19 is the highest-ranked golfer participating this weekend.

As the final event of the regular season, many golfers are looking to make a push that will lock them into the FedEx Cup Playoffs. Justin Thomas is one of the most notable names who needs to do so, needing a Top-18 finish at minimum to stay alive. Interestingly, his odds for a Top-20 finish are abysmally bad at +190 with our model giving him just a 21% chance of finishing that high.

Let's dive into our top picks based on DimersBOT's win probabilities. 

MORE: Our In-House Golf Rankings

Best Bets For the Wyndham Championship

Denny McCarthy To Win (+2800), Top 10 (+330)

Denny McCarthy is having himself a very good year and it's just a matter of time before he takes first place at an event. He did miss the cut in his last event at The Open two weeks ago, but that course was nasty and many struggled all weekend. He has three finishes at T-7 or better in his last five events, including a second-place loss in a playoff at The Memorial, and he has 10 finishes in the top 20 or higher this year.

McCarthy won't be dealing with Schefflers and the Rahms of the world this week, and it's arguable that he may be the most talented golfer in the field; he has the most stroked gained compared to this entire field since April. Our model projects McCarthy with a 4.9% probability to win, which our model calculates to be a fair price at +2000, making his +2800 odds a steal heading into the tournament.

Plus, if you bet this at DraftKings where you can add +300 to any outright winner, you take this all the way out to +3100.

Adam Scott To Win (+3500), Top 10 (+450)

Our second value bet isn't an exciting pick, but for the value, it's hard to ignore. After failing to finish higher than 30th all year, Adam Scott found himself a stride in the month of May, registering a T5, T8, T29 and T9 in four-straight events. He's played in four events since, missing the cut twice and finishing as high as T19.

He isn't lighting the world on fire with his play, but he is top-10 in total Strokes Gained out of this field. He has the best odds out of any golfer in our top five projected probabilities, and although the margins are slim, his value is significant, giving at least seven units of value on a one-unit bet over the next longest odds. For that same reason, his Top 10 bet also has value, with our model projecting him at a 24.5% chance at +450, while his odds suggest just an 18% chance.

Looking beyond our outright winners, we've got some placement bets to consider. In addition to these pre-tournament bets, they make good live options if you keep an eye out for DraftKings' usual daily 18% profit boosts throughout the weekend.

RELATED: Head-to-Head Matchups Tool

Denny McCarthy to Finish Top 5 (+650)

Unless you skipped past the whole column to get to this point, we've already covered why we like Denny McCarthy this week. The same reasons apply to his Top 5 finish, as he has finished Top 10 in three of his last five tournaments, and we expect him to remain in contention all the way through Sunday.

Shane Lowry to Finish Top 5 (+700)

Our model gives Shane Lowry a 14.1% chance to secure a Top 5 finish this weekend. At odds of +750, that implies just an 11.8% chance. That would make our fair price +600 so we're getting a nice edge here. He's finished Top 20 in five of his last seven events, as high as T12 twice. He's not a flashy pick, but he has the skill, it's a slimmed-down field and he's on the playoff bubble.

Adam Schenk to Finish Top 5 (+1400)

Adam Schenk is a weird golfer. He has seven missed cuts since March, and also has five T7 or better finishes, planting him all the way up at 23rd in the FedEx Cup Playoff Standings. It's worth noting he's missed the cut at all three majors he played in, but he's also performed well in stacked fields at events like The Memorial and Charles Schwab Challenge. At a 9.1% probability to finish Top 5 from our model, he gets about a 3% edge in the odds at +1400.

Eric Cole to Finish Top 10 (+750)

We're going back to impressive PGA TOUR rookie Eric Cole, this time to finish Top 10. He gets a 16.7% chance form our model giving us a 5% edge in the odds at +750. He's 27th in SG: Total on the entire tour. Plus, who doesn't want to root for a strong finish to the season from a rookie with a great story?

These aren't the only value plays on the board, but our selected ones based on our model's recommendations. Check out our full Predictions for the Wyndham Championship to find your favorite plays!

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