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PGA Tour Expert Picks: U.S. Open Predictions & Best Bets

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Written by Dave Garofolo
PGA Tour Expert Picks: U.S. Open Predictions & Best Bets

What a week. The RBC Canadian Open should be renamed the "Bad Beat Open." We had our +2076 matchups parlay completely in play right up until the final round when Tyrrell Hatton shot up the board to pass Rory McIlroy (but not enough to cash as an outright winner in the process). Then to rub it in, we watched as a *72-foot playoff putt* stole our +2000 Tommy Fleetwood outright out from under our noses. C'est la vie, and we move on, this time to golf's third major of the year, the U.S. Open.

Heading to Los Angeles Country Club, we'll see the best golfers in the world go toe-to-toe, featuring golfers from both LIV and PGA. There's sure to be plenty of excitement and drama around this event, which will make betting on it that much more fun.

We have a handful of Best Bets worth taking, let's dive in. Also, make sure you visit Dimers all golf season, where we'll be feeding you our PGA best bets on a weekly basis. These PGA predictions are made with our predictive analytics model and world-class artificial intelligence, and our data has already found some nice edges to start the year. 

Dimers' Golf H2H Matchup Tool compares our model's head-to-head probabilities for golfers competing in the current PGA Tour tournament. Choose your players and switch between Fair Odds or Percentages.

MORE: Today's Best Bets for All Sports

Betting on golf is a great way to take advantage of new promotions from the sportsbooks, especially at BetMGM where new users can bet on any of these picks and get their first bet back up to $1,000 if it loses.

Who will win the 2023 U.S. Open?

This Week's PGA Tour Top-Five Win Probabilities

To make things easy for you, we listed the highest probabilities to win and our best PGA Golf bets for the U.S. Open, down below:

  WIN TOP 5 TOP 10
Scottie Scheffler 14.7% 40.2% 56.4%
Jon Rahm 8.8% 30.4% 46.1%
Patrick Cantlay 6.5% 25.0% 38.9%
Xander Schauffele 6.3% 23.8% 38.3%
Rory McIlroy 4.5% 19.1% 32.8%

RELATED: +4447 U.S. Open 3-Ball Matchups Parlay

U.S. Open Betting Preview

The U.S. Open will take place at the Los Angeles Country Club  A notoriously difficult event, it will play a  Par-70 across 7,421 yards and feature Bentgrass greens. Matt Fitzpatrick is the defending champion and Brooks Koepka has a pair of wins from 2017 and 2018.

Our model's most likely winners are no surprise; Scottie Scheffler has been the best golfer over the past two years and Jon Rahm has been just behind him for most of that same period. As usual, we will also be looking further down the board for some value in mid-longshot winners and strong placement bets.

Best Bets to Win the U.S. Open

Scottie Scheffler (+700)

Shocker, right? The outright favorite in more than a handful of tournaments this year, including multiple majors, Scottie Scheffler is the World No. 1 for a reason. This year alone, he has seven Top-5 finishes, with two of those being outright victories. He's done great in Majors this year, with a T10 at the Masters and a T2 at the PGA Championship. In his last event, the Memorial Tournament, he started with a 73 and 74 and still finished in third place with a -6, proving even slow starts don't rule him out of making a run at a victory.

He's at +700 to win the U.S. Open and gets a 14.7% probability from our model to cash the big check. We're getting a 2.5% edge here, which may not sound significant, but given that his odds should be +600 based on our model, you get a full unit's worth of value. Plus, if you bet this at DraftKings where you can add +300 to any outright winner, you take this all the way out to 5% +EV.

MORE: Our In-House Golf Rankings

Xander Schauffele (+1900)

It's time to ride the Xander Coaster! Schauffele has traded handfuls of great performances for decent ones: T3, T13, T10 followed by T33, T39, T19. He then had a stretch of T10, 4, T4, 2 and back to T18 and T24. 

In four of his last five majors, he's finished no lower than 15th. He ranks sixth on approach and 12th in putting in stroked-gained right now and those traits will be crucial to keeping pace with a loaded field that included plenty of competitors from LIV. Our model gives Schauffele a 6.3% probability to win this weekend. His odds imply just a 5% chance, however, and our fair price would be closer to +1400, giving us great value.

Xander is still searching for his first major win. We are going to take the value and back the model's simulations with a bet on him to win the U.S. Open and get that elusive first major.

RELATED: Head-to-Head Matchups Tool

Tyrrell Hatton (+3300)

Hatton teased us last weekend at the RBC Canadian Open. He was one of our outright picks at +1100 and was in the mix right up until the end, missing the playoff by one stroke at -16. To make it worse, he edged out Rory McIlroy on the final day to kill our H2H matchups parlay. However, it's a hell of a lot easier to go back to a guy who was excellent rather than a guy who truly let us down.

Hatton has a Top-5 finish in three of his last five events and hasn't finished lower than T15. He's playing his best golf of the year since he finished 2nd at THE PLAYERS. He gets a 4.1% chance from our model, but his +3300 odds to win are simply too much of a drop-off from Viktor Hovland at +1800 with the same probability. Back his strong form and take Hatton at beautiful 33/1 value.

For an even sweeter deal, Tyrrell Hatton makes a great bet at FanDuel where you can get up to $20 back on your first outright winner bet if the golfer finishes Top-20, something Hatton has done lately with ease.

Best Placement Bets for the U.S. Open

Looking beyond our outright winners, we've got two placement bets to consider. There's not a ton of value in the Top 5 market, but if you're feeling like hedging one of your winners with a Top 5 pick, keep an eye out for DraftKings' usual 18% profit boosts throughout the weekend.

Tyrrell Hatton to Finish Top 10 (+300)

See all of the reasons above. Our model loves Tyrrell Hatton this week, he has three Top-5s in his last five events and we get 5% +EV on his odds as we give him a 30.4% chance, compared to his implied probability of 25%. This gives us a chance to cash Hatton Top 10 *and* get our outright winner back in one swing, no pun intended.

Wyndham Clark to Finish Top-20 (+270)

Another big tease of late, Wyndham Clark nearly brought home a +6000 outright winner for us two weeks ago at the Memorial Tournament. He was right behind the leader before coming apart at the end and taking a 3rd place finish. He has five Top-20 finished in his last eight events, though that includes a Missed Cut at the PGA Championship, his first MC in six months. He's been sharp otherwise and out model gives him a 38% chance to secure a Top-20 at the U.S. Open. That gives us an edge of 11% in the odds, too good to turn down.

These aren't the only value plays on the board, but our selected ones based on our model's recommendations. Check out our full Predictions for the U.S. Open to find your favorite plays!

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.

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Written by
Dave Garofolo
Content Producer

Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.

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