PGA Tour Expert Picks: John Deere Classic Predictions and Best Bets

The cards fell just the right way for us this past week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, with our two outright picks Rickie Fowler and Collin Morikawa facing off in a playoff to secure a victory for us no matter what. We cashed Fowler at +1400 along with his Top 10 at +180, making it a good week for this column! Three of our head-to-head matchup picks hit as well, making a small profit there for the Round Robin crowd. There's another slimmed-down field this week, so let's hunt for some value!

We're attacking this weekend's event, the John Deere Classic, just as we always do with our favorite outright winners and placement bets backed by our model. 

Rory McIlroy and Phil Mickelson when they get paired together after the PGA-LIV merger: pic.twitter.com/urY9zpHr86

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We have a handful of Best Bets worth taking, let's dive in. Also, make sure you visit Dimers all golf season, where we'll be feeding you our PGA best bets on a weekly basis. These PGA predictions are made with our predictive analytics model and world-class artificial intelligence, and our data has already found some nice edges to start the year. 

Dimers' Golf H2H Matchup Tool compares our model's head-to-head probabilities for golfers competing in the current PGA Tour tournament. Choose your players and switch between Fair Odds or Percentages.

MORE: Our +1427 Head-to-Head Matchups Parlay

Betting on golf is a great way to take advantage of new promotions from the sportsbooks, especially at BetMGM where new users can bet on any of these picks and get their first bet back up to $1,000 if it loses.

Who will win the 2023 John Deere Classic?

This Week's PGA Tour Top-Five Win Probabilities

To make things easy for you, we listed the highest probabilities to win and our best PGA Golf bets for the John Deere Classic, down below:

	WIN	TOP 5	TOP 10
Denny McCarthy	10.0%	30.6%	43.6%
Russell Henley	8.1%	25.9%	39.8%
Eric Cole	3.7%	15.5%	27.6%
Adam Hadwin	3.0%	14.1%	24.7%
Taylor Moore	3.0%	12.8%	22.3%

John Deere Classic Betting Preview

A par 71 that plays to 7,289 yards, TPC Deere Run will play host to the John Deere classic for the 23rd time, having done so since 2000. J.T. Poston is the reigning champ and will be part of this week's field. Lots of big names are taking another week off as we approach The Open, the final major of the year. 

With just five regular-season events remaining on the PGA TOUR, this tournament is likely to see many golfers on the playoff bubble looking to make a push for points.

With the highest-ranked golfer in the field this week (per our in-house rankings) being Denny McCarthy at #13, the tournament is wide open.

MORE: Our In-House Golf Rankings

Best Bets to Win the John Deere Classic

Denny McCarthy (+1800)

Denny McCarthy has been on fire lately, so it's no surprise to us that he finds himself at the top of our favorite winner picks for this year's John Deere Classic. McCarthy has racked up a top-5 finish and two top-10 finishes in his last five events. The important thing to note? Those fields had significantly tougher competition suiting up. McCarthy won't be dealing with Schefflers and the Rahms of the world this week, in fact he may be the most talented golfer in the field. Our model projects McCarthy as a 9.1% probability to win, which makes his +1800 odds a steal heading into the tournament.

Plus, if you bet this at DraftKings where you can add +300 to any outright winner, you take this all the way out to +2100.

Eric Cole (+3500)

Our second value bet may be a bit of a surprise as far as name recognition goes, but our model loves Eric Cole this weekend. Cole has a recent top-10 finish and he is in good form, finishing 50% of his last 18 rounds within five strokes of the best round that day. His ability to avoid a bad round keeps him in contention against fields full of more talented golfers, but this week, Cole has the stuff to make a serious run at hoisting the trophy. Our model gives Cole the third-highest chances to win, listed as a 3.9% probability. That's insane value - as his odds of +3500 value him tied for 10th most likely to win.

Best Placement Bets for the John Deere Classic

Looking beyond our outright winners, we've got some placement bets to consider. In addition to these pre-tournament bets, they make good live options if you keep an eye out for DraftKings' usual daily 18% profit boosts throughout the weekend.

RELATED: Head-to-Head Matchups Tool

Denny McCarthy to Finish Top 10 (+200)

Well, unless you skipped past the whole column to get to this point, we've already covered why we like Denny McCarthy this week. The same reasons apply to his Top 10 finish, as he has finished Top 20 in three straight tournaments, and we expect him to remain in contention into Sunday here.

Russell Henley to Finish Top 10 (+170)

In Henley's past five events, he has finished in the top 20 four times. It won't take much of a jump in form for him to finish T10 this weekend, and he has a history of success at the John Deere Classic. Henley has one top five finish at this event in his last three appearances, and has finished with an average position of 13th in that span, making the cut every time. We expect Henley to have yet another successful weekend here.

Sam Ryder to Finish Top 20 (+500)

Okay, we know, we love Sam Ryder in this column. Sam Ryder has five T20 finishes or better this season. As previously mentioned, this field is lacking in almost the entire Top 10 in the rankings, and Ryder is looking to keep his successful streak alive. Ryder has made the cut at this event in all four of his previous tries including a second place finish in his first appearance back in 2018. At +500 just to finish in the top 20, this is a complete steal.

These aren't the only value plays on the board, but our selected ones based on our model's recommendations. Check out our full Predictions for the John Deere Classic to find your favorite plays!

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.