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PGA Tour Expert Picks: Arnold Palmer Invitational Predictions & Best Bets

PGA Tour Expert Picks: Arnold Palmer Invitational Predictions & Best Bets

The PGA Tour heads to Orlando, Florida this weekend for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Bay Hill Club & Lodge plays host to the best field since the last major championship last season. 44 of the top 50 golfers in the world will be in action in the field. And we have two Best Bets worth taking. Also, make sure you visit Dimers all golf season, where we'll be feeding you our PGA best bets on a weekly basis. These PGA predictions are made with our predictive analytics model and world-class artificial intelligence, and our data has already found some nice edges to start the year. 

Who will win the Arnold Palmer Invitational?

PGA Tour Win Probabilities

To make things easy for you, we listed the best PGA Golf bets for the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational, down below.

  WIN TOP 5 TOP 10
Jon Rahm 13.1% 39.4% 55.8%
Rory McIlroy 8.6% 28.7% 44.2%
Scottie Scheffler 8.5% 30.0% 45.4%
Tony Finau 5.4% 22.4% 36.4%
Patrick Cantlay 5.2% 21.4% 35.4%

RELATED: Dimers' Golf Rankings - Who is No. 1?

The Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview

According to the World Golf Rankings, 44 of the top 50 ranked golfers in the world will be in action for this tournament. This means the slow start to the PGA Tour season has ended quickly, and this tournament will have a "major championship" competitive feel to it with the best of the best going head to head for a big money prize.

Last year's winner Scottie Scheffler is one of the favorites, along with current World No. 1 Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy. All three star golfers will certainly have a shot, and our model's projections reflect that. But there are two golfers we have our eyes on for this tournament as the bets with the most value this weekend.

Dimers' Golf H2H Matchup Tool compares our model's head-to-head probabilities for golfers competing in the current PGA Tour tournament. Choose your players and switch between Fair Odds or Percentages.

Best Bets to Win the Arnold Palmer Invitational

After the top three (Rahm, McIlroy, Scheffler), the odds to win the tournament are much more tasty for bettors looking for pre-tournament value. While Rahm is the favorite at +700, Scheffler and McIlory are next in line at +950. There's just not enough bang for your buck there compared to DimersBOT's probabilities to win.

Looking past that group at the top, there are two golfers worth placing a ticket on: Tony Finau (+2600) and Patrick Cantlay (+2300). Both Finau and Cantlay are undoubtedly two of the most gifted golfers on earth, and there's reason to believe both have a great shot at winning this weekend.

DimersBOT gives Finau a 5.4% chance to win the tournament, good for 4th best in the field. Over his last 20 rounds of golf, Finau has shot under par 15 times. He hasn't missed a cut in his last five tournaments, and he has posted an average finish of 13th in that span. Finau is in great form, and it is only a matter of time before he gets back atop the podium.

Likewise, Patrick Cantlay has a great shot to win. DimersBOT gives Cantlay a 5.2% chance to win the tournament, good for 5th most likely in the field. Cantlay is fresh off a third-place showing at the Genesis Invitational his last time out. Cantlay will be making his first career start in the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but he is the type of player that can find success immediately in a new tournament.

We recommend sprinkling on both Finau and Cantlay to win the tournament, with a good chance of hedging your bets if either is in position to win on Sunday.



Greg Waddell
Creative Strategist

Greg Waddell is a self-proclaimed college basketball addict, with an affinity for parlays and fantasy football trades. He's based in Michigan, where he hasn't seen one of his professional sports teams win anything of any importance since he was in diapers.

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