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PGA Golf Best Bets: U.S. Open Winner Picks and Predictions

PGA Golf Best Bets: U.S. Open Winner Picks and Predictions

Time for some golf betting!

We're gearing up for the third major of the year with the U.S. Open, it's 124th edition. We're heading to the links at historic Pinehurst in North Carolina for one of the tougher tests of the year. All the big names are here, from Scottie Scheffler to Tiger Woods and of course, Brooks Koepka and the LIV crew.

Our predictive analytics model has run 1000s of simulations for the 124th U.S. Open, identifying value bets in the winner and placement markets. As mentioned, we're heading to Muirfield Village for this signature event with a $20 million purse up for grabs.


Betting Golf with Dimers Pro

For a limited time, you can score three months of Dimers Pro on us after signing up and placing your first wager at BetMGM! 

Dimers Pro gives you access to everything Dimers has to offer right now and in the future, including our full list of today’s best bets and our cutting-edge Parlay Picker.

We've partnered with BetMGM Sportsbook to give all users 3 months of complementary Dimers Pro access when you sign up at the sportsbook.

Learn more about this exclusive, limited time offer here.

The U.S Open Golf Betting Preview

A big factor in this week's contest will be the tight play amongst the leaderboard, as 26 of the previous 28 U.S. Open winners were within three shots of the leader after the first two rounds.

Our best bets are here to help with outright winner plays, as well as recommended Top-5, Top-10 and Top-20 picks.

Also, make sure you visit Dimers all golf season long, where we'll be feeding you our trusted PGA best betson a weekly basis. These PGA predictions are sourced from our powerful predictive analytics model that pulled off some big wins in 2023 and has already returned an 80-1 winner with Wyndham Clark in 2024, correctly predicted Scottie Scheffler's comeback at the RBC Heritage while he was +1000 to win, and just cashed a +1075 3-ball parlay at the Memorial.

Who Will Win The 124th U.S. Open?

Here are the five most likely winners of this week's U.S. Open the result of simulating the tournament 10,000 times via our A.I. models. 

GOLFER
WIN
TOP 5
TOP 10
Scottie Scheffler22.7%
53.3%
69.2%
Xander Schauffele11.0%
34.7%
50.9%
Rory McIlroy
6.4%
25.6%
39.2%
Collin Morikawa4.7%
20.5%
34.2%
Brooks Koepka3.1%
15.0%
27.4%

For access to every probability and projection beyond the Top 5 in each category, hit the Dimers Pro button below our rankings.

Dimers' Top-Ranked Golfers at the the U.S. Open

GOLFER
Dimers Rank
OWGR
Scottie Scheffler
#1
#1
Xander Schauffele
#2
#2
Rory McIlroy
#3#3
Collin Morikawa
#4
#7
Cameron Smith#5
#72

MORE: Dimer Pro's In-House Golf Rankings


The U.S. Open Best Bets

Xander Schauffele to Win (+1100 on BetMGM)

When you're our model's second-ranked golfer regardless of OWGR, and you naturally get long odds because of the guy at the top, you're going to get an edge week in and week out, and that's exactly what we've been seeing with Xander Schauffele this year.

He's been in contention numerous times, as high as a T3 this past weekend before bogeying himself out of the Top 5. He's recorded a pair of second place finishes and picked up the first major win of his career just last month at the PGA Championship.

We give him an 11.0% probability to win this weekend, making fair odds of +800 against his best price of +1100 at BetMGM. 

Even better - for new users, a $10 bet on Schauffele can get you three months of Dimers Pro access on us.

 

Cameron Smith to Win (+4500 on FanDuel)

The edge here is so slim it's basically a fair odds play, but it's the context of Cameron Smith's odds against the other golfers with a similar projection that has us looking at him for a longshot. Smith has played well on the LIV circuit this year - a pair of second-place finishes and three top 20s in eight events. He also finished T6 at The Masters.

At 2.2%, our fair price is +4400 so we're getting right where we should be as far as probability is concerned. Additionally, Smith is our ninth-most likely winner of the weekend, so while that probability is small, it's higher than the vast majority of the field.

Finally, If you look at the three golfers above him (Koepka, Aberg, Hovland), they sit within 2.8% and 2.6%, but their odds cap out at +2200, while our model says they should be +3500 or longer.

 

Corey Conners Top 20 (+250 on BetMGM)

We had a Top 20 edge last week that cashed with ease as Christiaan Bezuidenhout finished 4th place. Let's go for another at great value at the U.S. Open.

Two weeks removed from his best performance this year on his home soil at the RBC Canadian Open, Conners gets a 33.7% probability to secure a Top 20 finish once again. He's in the best stretch of this season, placing T20 or better in three of his last four solo events.

Our probability makes his fair odds right around +200, while his +250 odds imply just 28.6%.

 

These aren't the only value plays on the board, but our selected ones based on our model's recommendations. With Dimers Pro, you can check out our full predictions for the 124th U.S. Open to find your favorite plays, with plenty more edges to be found!

Build Round Robins, Top 20 parlays and get round-by-round updates each day with Dimers Pro.


Dimers' Expert Golf Picks and Predictions

As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers also has the latest golf news, golf predictions for every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.

Can I bet on golf with Dimers?

No. There’s no golf bet slip on our site because we don’t take any golf bets ourselves. We’re the friend who gives you the best golf picks and predictions then tells you where and how to get the best golf sign up offers at the sportsbooks, so you can throw your golf bets down. That’s it!

When you click on one of our buttons or links in our golf content, you’re whisked away to DraftKings, BetMGM, FanDuel, or one of the many other sportsbooks we work with.

Once you get there, you can join up to score a welcome bonus (up to $200!), and then get those golf bets down for yourself, but you’re betting on the golf with them, not us. Since you are never betting anything directly with us, we don’t have access to your personal information or sensitive financial info like credit card numbers.

It also means that despite our best efforts to confirm that a sports betting site still has that awesome golf sign up offer available, the best ones often disappear just as quickly as they appeared. We always take these offers down once we know they’re no longer available. We take our responsibility to provide up to date golf information very seriously.

Finally, Responsible Gambling is extremely important to us, so please remember that golf betting should be seen as a form of entertainment - adding to your enjoyment while watching from the course of the couch - not a side hustle or second income stream.

If Dimers doesn't take golf bets, then how do you make money?

Whenever you join a sportsbook mentioned in our golf picks and predictions across the website, or use one of our promo codes, we get a small commission for referring you. Don’t worry, though, this doesn’t affect you in any way at all. That’s a fee the sportsbook pays us as a thank-you for sending another golf bettor their way.

We’re always happy to help our readers troubleshoot any problems. Start with our About Us or Contact Us and if that doesn’t work for you, then you can always send us an email at contact@dimers.com. We’ll do our best to help you figure it out.

Dimers and golf betting

  • Dimers, and online sports betting, are not scams – golf betting has been legal since May 2018.
  • We give you the best golf picks and predictions, and tell you where to find the best sign up offers, but you don’t actually bet on golf with us.
  • We do not collect sportsbook sign up or credit card information.
  • We get a commission if you join a sportsbook through our golf content, buttons or links.
  • We’re always happy to help you troubleshoot any issues. Just ask!

Dimers and Responsible Gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-GAMBLER for crisis counseling and support.

Dave Garofolo
Content Producer

Dave Garofolo, a seasoned fantasy sports and betting enthusiast with a special affection for MLB and NFL, uses his deep knowledge to craft game previews for the NBA, MLB, and NFL. He also brings his expertise to the golf world with tournament previews and parlays for the PGA TOUR and major golf tournaments. Additionally, Dave offers valuable props for NBA, MLB, NHL, and NCAAM basketball, along with best bets for MLB, NHL, and NCAAM. 

When not delving into the world of sports, Dave is an avid advocate for New Haven pizza, enjoys reading comic books, gardening, and spending time with his cats. His broad interests and detailed sports insights ensure that his contributions are both engaging and informative.

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