PGA Golf Best Bets: U.S. Open Winner Picks and Predictions

Time for some golf betting!

We're gearing up for the third major of the year with the U.S. Open, it's 124th edition. We're heading to the links at historic Pinehurst in North Carolina for one of the tougher tests of the year. All the big names are here, from Scottie Scheffler to Tiger Woods and of course, Brooks Koepka and the LIV crew.

Our predictive analytics model has run 1000s of simulations for the 124th U.S. Open, identifying value bets in the winner and placement markets. As mentioned, we're heading to Muirfield Village for this signature event with a $20 million purse up for grabs.

Betting Golf with Dimers Pro

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Dimers Pro gives you access to everything Dimers has to offer right now and in the future, including our full list of today’s best bets and our cutting-edge Parlay Picker.

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The U.S Open Golf Betting Preview

A big factor in this week's contest will be the tight play amongst the leaderboard, as 26 of the previous 28 U.S. Open winners were within three shots of the leader after the first two rounds.

Our best bets are here to help with outright winner plays, as well as recommended Top-5, Top-10 and Top-20 picks.

Also, make sure you visit Dimers all golf season long, where we'll be feeding you our trusted PGA best betson a weekly basis. These PGA predictions are sourced from our powerful predictive analytics model that pulled off some big wins in 2023 and has already returned an 80-1 winner with Wyndham Clark in 2024, correctly predicted Scottie Scheffler's comeback at the RBC Heritage while he was +1000 to win, and just cashed a +1075 3-ball parlay at the Memorial.

Cash our +1075 Memorial 3-ball parlay!

✅ Scheffler
✅ Morikawa
✅ Hovland

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Who Will Win The 124th U.S. Open?

Here are the five most likely winners of this week's U.S. Open the result of simulating the tournament 10,000 times via our A.I. models. 

For access to every probability and projection beyond the Top 5 in each category, hit the Dimers Pro button below our rankings.

Dimers' Top-Ranked Golfers at the the U.S. Open

MORE: Dimer Pro's In-House Golf Rankings

The U.S. Open Best Bets

Xander Schauffele to Win (+1100 on BetMGM)

When you're our model's second-ranked golfer regardless of OWGR, and you naturally get long odds because of the guy at the top, you're going to get an edge week in and week out, and that's exactly what we've been seeing with Xander Schauffele this year.

He's been in contention numerous times, as high as a T3 this past weekend before bogeying himself out of the Top 5. He's recorded a pair of second place finishes and picked up the first major win of his career just last month at the PGA Championship.

We give him an 11.0% probability to win this weekend, making fair odds of +800 against his best price of +1100 at BetMGM. 

Even better - for new users, a $10 bet on Schauffele can get you three months of Dimers Pro access on us.

Cameron Smith to Win (+4500 on FanDuel)

The edge here is so slim it's basically a fair odds play, but it's the context of Cameron Smith's odds against the other golfers with a similar projection that has us looking at him for a longshot. Smith has played well on the LIV circuit this year - a pair of second-place finishes and three top 20s in eight events. He also finished T6 at The Masters.

At 2.2%, our fair price is +4400 so we're getting right where we should be as far as probability is concerned. Additionally, Smith is our ninth-most likely winner of the weekend, so while that probability is small, it's higher than the vast majority of the field.

Finally, If you look at the three golfers above him (Koepka, Aberg, Hovland), they sit within 2.8% and 2.6%, but their odds cap out at +2200, while our model says they should be +3500 or longer.

Corey Conners Top 20 (+250 on BetMGM)

We had a Top 20 edge last week that cashed with ease as Christiaan Bezuidenhout finished 4th place. Let's go for another at great value at the U.S. Open.

Two weeks removed from his best performance this year on his home soil at the RBC Canadian Open, Conners gets a 33.7% probability to secure a Top 20 finish once again. He's in the best stretch of this season, placing T20 or better in three of his last four solo events.

Our probability makes his fair odds right around +200, while his +250 odds imply just 28.6%.

These aren't the only value plays on the board, but our selected ones based on our model's recommendations. With Dimers Pro, you can check out our full predictions for the 124th U.S. Open to find your favorite plays, with plenty more edges to be found!

Build Round Robins, Top 20 parlays and get round-by-round updates each day with Dimers Pro.

Dimers' Expert Golf Picks and Predictions

As well as being your best source for PGA golf predictions, Dimers also has the latest golf news, golf predictions for every game, weekly golf rankings, and golf matchup H2H tool.

Can I bet on golf with Dimers?

No. There’s no golf bet slip on our site because we don’t take any golf bets ourselves. We’re the friend who gives you the best golf picks and predictions then tells you where and how to get the best golf sign up offers at the sportsbooks, so you can throw your golf bets down. That’s it!

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Dimers and golf betting

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