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Thunder vs. Suns prediction: Why Oklahoma City is favored to win Saturday's NBA matchup [4/25/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Oklahoma City Thunder vs Phoenix Suns predictions for NBA Playoffs Saturday.
The Phoenix Suns will face the favored Oklahoma City Thunder in the 2026 NBA Playoffs at Mortgage Matchup Center on Saturday, starting at 3:30 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulations and today’s injury news, Dimers' proven NBA model predicts the Thunder as the most likely winner of the Thunder vs. Suns game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Suns lineup will feature players like Devin Booker, Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks, while the Thunder will rely on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren and Ajay Mitchell.
This article offers a closer look at Saturday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Thunder vs. Suns prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Saturday's NBA Playoffs matchup between the Thunder and Suns, forming part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Thunder a 78% chance of defeating the Suns. Our predicted final score has the Thunder winning 112-103.
According to our model, the Suns (+9.5) have a 52% chance of covering the spread, while the 215-point over/under has a 52% chance of going over.
Thunder vs. Suns odds
We have researched the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Thunder | Suns |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -9.5 (-105) | +9.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | -395 | +350 |
| Total | o215 (-110) | u215 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Thunder vs. Suns picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Suns +9.5 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Suns | +350 |
| Total | Over 215 | -110 |
According to our NBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Suns to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Thunder vs. Suns player props
Looking for Oklahoma City vs. Phoenix NBA player props? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mortgage Matchup Center.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is expected to lead the Thunder with 31 points, 5 rebounds and 7 assists, while Devin Booker is projected to have 26 points, 5 rebounds and 6 assists for the Suns.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Thunder prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Thunder are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Gilgeous-Alexander | 31 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 53 |
| Chet Holmgren | 17 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 37 |
| Ajay Mitchell | 14 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 28 |
| Isaiah Joe | 11 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 20 |
| Cason Wallace | 9 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 22 |
Suns prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Suns:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Booker | 26 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 45 |
| Jalen Green | 21 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 39 |
| Dillon Brooks | 20 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 33 |
| C. Gillespie | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 23 |
| Royce O'Neale | 9 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 25 |
Thunder vs. Suns game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's action between the Suns and Thunder in the NBA Playoffs is scheduled to start at 3:30 PM ET.
- Who: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Phoenix Suns
- Date: Saturday, April 25, 2026
- Time: 3:30 PM ET/12:30PM PT
- Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center
- NBA Playoffs bracket: Updated NBA Playoffs bracket and schedule
The NBA Playoffs is an annual elimination tournament held to decide the league's champion.
Sixteen teams, including the Thunder and Suns, reached the 2026 NBA Playoffs, which includes four rounds: the First Round, Conference Semifinals, Conference Finals, and NBA Finals.
Each round of the NBA Playoffs is contested as a best-of-seven series, with the first team to four wins moving on to the next round until a champion is crowned.
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Conclusion
We predict the Thunder, with a 78% win probability, will likely beat the Suns in Saturday's NBA playoffs matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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