NFL Week 12 Thanksgiving Best Bets and Picks For Thursday, November 24, 2022Last updated: | Published:
Our NFL best bets are 31-11-1 since the start of the season and we're hoping to dish out some Turkey Day winners so that you can cash in while eating your stuffing. This is simply a Thanksgiving special, but we'll still have our Sunday plays for you.
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NFL Thanksgiving Week 12 Best Bets and Picks
Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions - 12:30PM ET
This game is genuinely hard to call from a side perspective, as the Bills are struggling and the Lions have been a lot more competitive in recent weeks. Buffalo should win the game outright, but we're just not comfortable touching the spread. Instead, we're looking to the point total in this game.
The Bills have one of the most explosive offenses in the entire NFL, which makes it hard to imagine them not lighting it up against a lousy Lions defense. Buffalo really could hang a big number on Detroit in this one, making it rather likely that the Over cashes. But don't be surprised if the Lions also score a lot of points here. Detroit has scored 31 points in back-to-back games, with the Over hitting in both of those contests.
This just has the potential to be a serious shootout, which would be fantastic for football fans. We can use a lot of scoring to get Thanksgiving started the right way.
PICK: Over 53 (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
New York Giants vs. Dallas Cowboys - 4:30PM ET
The Giants were dealt a blow when they found out Wan'Dale Robinson is out for the season with a torn ACL. This is a team that is already thin at wide receiver, but New York really hasn't had a good situation at that position all year and that hasn't stopped the Giants from covering spreads.
All in all, this is just a little too many points to be giving a division rival, especially when it's a competent one. Sure, New York failed to beat Dallas at home earlier in the season, but that can't be weighed too much here. The Cowboys have been much worse in November games under Mike McCarthy, as they are just 3-7 straight-up and 4-6 against the spread in such situations. The Giants coaching staff has also been superb all year, so New York should be prepared to compete on a short week.
Look for the Giants to try and get Saquon Barkley going in this one. He's coming off a poor performance and New York needs to establish the run.
PICK: Giants +9 (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
New England Patriots vs. Minnesota Vikings - 8:20PM ET
The Vikings are coming off a lousy performance against the Cowboys, so they'll be eager to go out and beat up on the Patriots. However, this is a situation in which it just seems too easy to back Minnesota. The Vikings are going to be one of the most popular bets of the week for the public and we tend to believe that Vegas knows exactly what it's doing by throwing this line out there.
If you're looking for reasons New England might cover here, you should know that this is the part of the season in which the Pats' ability to defend and run the ball starts to weigh on opponents. New England is 8-1 ATS in Weeks 10 through 13 since the start of the 2020-21 season, and the Patriots have won those games by an average of 16.0 points per game.
New England has also won five of its last six games outright, while also covering in six of its last seven. The Patriots also come into this one after having given up just 23 total points over the last three weeks. Don't be surprised if Bill Belichick's crew really stifles the Vikings offense. Also, Minnesota's defense couldn't stop a nosebleed last week, so New England has some hope as an offense here.
PICK: Patriots +3 (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook)