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NFL Week 12 Best Bets and Picks For Sunday, November 27, 2022

Our NFL best bets are 31-11-1 since the start of the season and we're on the hunt for more Sunday winners in Week 12. This week, we didn't have as many games to choose from because of the Thanksgiving slate, but we're still liking what we're seeing on the board. 

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NFL Week 12 Best Bets and Picks 

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Tennessee Titans - 1:00PM ET

The Bengals earned a 19-16 road win over the Titans in the playoffs last year and they'll now look to earn a regular-season victory over them in Nashville. Cincinnati is expected to get Ja'Marr Chase back for this one and that has to be concerning for Tennessee. The Bengals have a very explosive offense and can make big plays in a hurry. That is not true of the Titans, who rely strictly on Derrick Henry and the ground game. 

We think that Tennessee's one-dimensional offensive approach will ultimately doom the team in this game. The Titans will need Ryan Tannehill to make some big throws at some point in this one and it's just unclear if he has the ability to do that. Cincinnati is also 21-11 against the spread in road games under head coach Zac Taylor. The Bengals are also 11-3 ATS when facing teams that allow 235.0 or more passing yards per game in the second half of the year under Taylor. That's probably because Cincinnati can rely on Joe Burrow to shred non-elite passing defenses. 

PICK: Bengals -2 (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

 

Is Jaylen Waddle's receiving yards prop flying under the radar today? Parlay Jay explains why it's a must-bet prop on today's Prop or Chop!


Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Cleveland Browns - 1:00PM ET

This line is one that looks a little fishy to us, but we're ignoring it and backing the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay is coming off back-to-back wins and both of them felt massive for Tom Brady and Co. The Buccaneers are really playing well defensively right now, as they have given up just 29 points over the last two games. Now, they get a crack at a Browns offense that really only moves the ball in the ground game.

Look for Todd Bowles to load up the box and try not to allow Nick Chubb and the Cleveland running game to get going. If the Buccaneers get beat by Jacoby Brissett, they'll be able to live with that. But the Browns have lost six of their last seven games and just haven't shown many signs of life. Perhaps that will change with Deshaun Watson coming back soon, but this is a game the Buccaneers should win rather easily — especially with them having had extra time to rest after playing in Germany two weeks ago. 

PICK: Bucs -3.5 (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

 

Houston Texans vs. Miami Dolphins - 1:00PM ET

The Dolphins are averaging 35.0 points per game over the last three weeks, so we know that this offense is capable of scoring a lot of points. And we just don't see them struggling to do so against the Texans. As long as Miami scores at least 28 or so points in this one, it's just hard to see how this Over doesn't hit. 

The Texans offense has been something of a disaster all year, but the Dolphins have one of the worst passing defenses in football and Houston should be able to exploit it at least a little. The Texans also made the change from Davis Mills to Kyle Allen under center and that should help Houston's offense a little bit. Allen isn't anything special, but he'll get the ball out quickly and give his playmakers chances to make plays. 

PICK: Over 46.5 (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

 
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