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NFL Week 11 Best Bets and Picks For Sunday, November 20, 2022Nov 17, 2022, 6:23PM
Our NFL best bets are 29-10-1 since the start of the season and we're on the hunt for more winners in Week 11. This week, we're looking at two early games and then one in the late afternoon slate. That'll keep you locked in and entertained all the way up until the Kansas City Chiefs face the Los Angeles Chargers for Sunday Night Football.
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NFL Week 11 Best Bets and Picks
Washington Commanders vs. Houston Texans - 1:00PM ET
A meeting between Taylor Heinicke and Davis Mills might not scream shootout, but it also isn't worthy of a total as low as 40.5.
The Commanders have a good chance of putting up a decent number of points in this game, as the running back duo of Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson should be able to find some success against a lousy Texans running defense. That will then open things up for Heinicke to hit on some throws to Terry McLaurin.
The Texans might have a tougher time scoring points, but we think they're good for at least 20 or so in this game. That alone would make it very hard for this Over not to hit. The number is just far too low not to at least take a shot on it.
PICK: Over 40.5 (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Should you be betting the Colts player props on Sunday? The fellas are loving them this week on Prop or Chop!
Los Angeles Rams vs. New Orleans Saints - 1:00PM ET
The Rams have the difficult task of being a west coast team playing an early game this weekend, which already puts them at a disadvantage. Throw in the fact that Cooper Kupp is out indefinitely and you just have to wonder how fragile this Los Angeles team is right now. The Rams still have some talent scattered throughout the lineup, but they also have quite a few glaring weaknesses. And playing on the road in New Orleans is never easy.
The Saints have been far from impressive this season, but they're not as bad as their records suggests. They're also 7-1 straight-up and 5-3 against the spread as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points over the last three years. New Orleans is favored by 3.5 in this game, but we're buying the hook for a little protection. We're counting on a big game from Alvin Kamara and also think the Saints defense will come away with a few takeaways.
PICK: Saints -3 (-120 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Dallas Cowboys vs. Minnesota Vikings - 4:25PM ET
This looks like the definition of a trap game and we never like to be on the wrong side of that. It's wild to see Minnesota as a home underdog after having gone on the road to beat Buffalo, but that's exactly what Vegas wants casual bettors to think. With that said, we're not taking the bait and we're playing the Cowboys in this one.
Dallas might not be coming off a win over one of the league's best teams, but the Cowboys are still a very good football team and a road loss at Lambeau Field shouldn't make anyone think otherwise. We actually like Dallas over Minnesota in every part of the game, as the Cowboys are better on both offense and defense.
The Cowboys are also 9-1 ATS when facing defenses that allow 235 or more passing yards per game over the last two seasons, and they have won those games by an average of 16.3 points per game. Dallas is also 8-0 ATS after having allowed six or more yards per play in its previous game since the start of last year, so the Cowboys defense tends to fix itself after poor performances. That shouldn't surprise anybody either, as Dan Quinn is one of the best defensive coordinators in the league.
PICK: Cowboys -1.5 (-107 at FanDuel Sportsbook)