Updated NFL Week 1 Predictions: From Favorites to Underdogs

With the roar of the crowds just around the corner, anticipation for the 2025 NFL season is at an all-time high. Dimers has released its updated Week 1 NFL win predictions, giving us a fascinating glimpse into the matchups and the teams poised for an early season victory. The data, based on a variety of factors including team performance, player health, and historical trends, paints a clear picture of which teams are entering the season with the most momentum and which face an uphill battle.

Here is a breakdown of the Week 1 slate, ranked from the teams with the highest win probability to the teams with the lowest.

NFL Predictions

The Week 1 Favorites

Leading the pack with a commanding 78% win probability is the Denver Broncos, who are hosting the Tennessee Titans. This significant edge, reflected in their -7.5 point spread, suggests that the oddsmakers believe the Broncos are primed for a dominant performance at home.

Following closely is the Washington Commanders, with a 75% chance of victory over the Giants, a matchup where they are favored by -6.5 points. The NFC East rivalry is on display, and the numbers suggest a one-sided affair to kick off the season.

Super Bowl LIX Champion, the Philadelphia Eagles, rounds out the top three with a 73% probability of defeating the Cowboys, a game that will undoubtedly be a heated divisional clash despite the Eagles' -7.0 point spread.

The next tier of favorites includes two teams with identical 70% win probabilities. The Arizona Cardinals, with a -6.0 point spread, are expected to handle the New Orleans Saints. Similarly, the Cincinnati Bengals, fresh off a promising season, are given a 70% chance to beat the Browns, holding a -5.5 point spread.

Suggested bets: Consider using Bengals moneyline (-230) in your parlays. Even at the short odds, they still represent some small value.

NFL Teams with a Strong Week 1 Advantage

The Pittsburgh Steelers come in with a strong 61% win probability against the Jets (-3.0 spread), while the New England Patriots are given a 60% chance to defeat the Raiders (-3.0 spread).

This group also includes several teams with a 58% probability of winning: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the Falcons (-1.5 spread), the Jacksonville Jaguars over the Panthers (-3.0 spread), the Los Angeles Rams over the Texans (-3.0 spread), and the San Francisco 49ers over the Seahawks (-1.5 spread).

These matchups, while not as lopsided as the top-tier games, still show a clear favorite.

Suggested bets: Buccaneers moneyline (-120) represents a significant edge of close to 5%, while Steelers moneyline (-148) is also worth betting.

Evenly Matched NFL Week 1 Contests

The remaining games are expected to be far more competitive, with win probabilities hovering around the 50% mark.

The Kansas City Chiefs are given a 56% chance to win against the Chargers (-2.5 spread) in a marquee opener, a testament to the Chargers' strength.

The Indianapolis Colts and Green Bay Packers both hold a 55% win probability against the Dolphins and Lions, respectively, with spreads of +1.5 and +2.0.

The Buffalo Bills are given a 54% chance to win against the Ravens (-1.0 spread) in what is expected to be a thrilling Sunday Night Football showdown.

The Chicago Bears, with a 53% win probability, are a slight favorite over the Vikings.

Suggested bets: Colts moneyline (-110) is the play.

RELATED: 2025 NFL Season Win Totals: Predictions and Odds

The Week 1 Underdogs

On the other side of the coin are the teams with the lowest probabilities of winning.

The Tennessee Titans find themselves at the bottom of the list with a mere 22% chance of an upset against the Broncos.

The New York Giants are just ahead of them with a 25% probability of defeating the Commanders, and the Dallas Cowboys are given a 27% chance against the Eagles.

Other teams in this category, all with win probabilities in the 30-45% range, include the Browns, Saints, Jets, Raiders, Texans, Panthers, Falcons, Chargers, Dolphins, and Lions.

This data provides a compelling narrative for the start of the season. While the numbers favor some teams heavily, the beauty of the NFL lies in its unpredictability. Week 1 is always full of surprises, and these probabilities are simply a starting point for what promises to be a thrilling opening slate of games.