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Titans vs. Packers Computer Picks, NFL Odds and Prediction for Thurday Night Football on November 17, 2022Nov 17, 2022, 3:32PM
The Green Bay Packers earned a big win over the Dallas Cowboys last week, but they can still really use a victory over the Tennessee Titans at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin on Thursday, November 17. This game will kick off at 8:15PM ET, when Aaron Rodgers and Co. will begin to really make a push for a playoff spot in the NFC. They have a lot of work to do the rest of the way in order to sniff the postseason, so home games like these are must-win contests for Green Bay.
Find out how we think this one will play out in our Titans vs. Packers betting preview.
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Titans vs. Packers Computer Picks
Predictive Analytics Data
- 52% chance the Packers cover -2.5 point spread
- 66% chance the Packers win on the moneyline
- No edge on Titans vs. Packers going Over/Under 41
For the best NFL computer picks, check out our Titans vs. Packers data predictions. They are constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.
Titans vs. Packers Odds and Betting Lines
Why The Titans Will Cover The Spread
The Packers are coming off a game in which they scored 31 points against the Cowboys, but they had scored just 21 or fewer in their previous four games. Which version of the Green Bay offense will show up here? If the Packers can't find a way to throw the ball on the Titans, it's hard to imagine Mike Vrabel's team not winning this one.
Green Bay's rushing defense has been really lousy all year long, which isn't a good thing heading into a meeting with Derrick Henry and Tennessee. The Titans are also 10-8 both straight-up and against the spread as road underdogs of 7 or fewer points under Vrabel.
Why Packers Will Cover The Spread
Rookie Christian Watson probably won't have four catches for 107 yards and three touchdowns every week, but the fact that he was able to step up and make some plays for Rodgers was massive. Green Bay has been waiting all year for a receiver to make explosive plays, so this offense just might be ready to start operating the way we expected. The Packers also rushed for 207 yards in the win over the Cowboys, with part of the reason for that being that Dallas wasn't able to completely lock in on the run.
With Green Bay's offense now looking functional, this team looks primed to make a run in the second half of the year. The Packers also happen to be 12-4 SU and 10-6 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less since LaFleur took over. Green Bay is also 12-6 both SU and ATS in games with lines between +3 and -3 in that span.
It's also just hard to overlook the battle under center here. Ryan Tannehill can't be trusted in key moments, but Rodgers will steal this game for the Packers if it's close enough in the fourth quarter.
Why The Over Will Hit
The Over is 11-7 in the 18 games that Tennessee has played as a road 'dog of 7 or less points under Vrabel. And overall, this point total is just extremely low. Even in a game in which both teams are going to be trying to run the football, you'd have to think that these teams are capable of making an explosive play or two.
The Packers got quite a few big plays out of Watson last week, and perhaps it'll be somebody else that steps up in Week 11. Also, under LaFleur, the Over is 9-5 when the Packers have played against teams with winning records in the second half of the season.
Why The Under Will Hit
Tennessee knows that its best chance of winning this game is by pounding the rock with Henry and hoping its defense can force a bad game out of Rodgers. The latter no longer seems out of the equation, as Rodgers is in the midst of the worst year of his professional career.
It should also be noted that the Under is 9-6 in the 15 games that the Titans have played with a total between 35.5 and 42 points under Vrabel. That means that the oddsmakers have been spot on in expecting low-scoring games out of this Tennessee squad.
Titans vs. Packers Prediction
Lean: Packers -2.5
It's getting late pretty early for Rodgers and the Packers, meaning they can't afford to let this game slip away. They clearly found something that worked against the Cowboys and we think the momentum will carry over on a short week.