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NFL Super Bowl LVII: Chiefs vs. Eagles Expert Picks, Analysis & Best Bets, Sunday, February 12, 2023Feb 11, 2023, 3:19PM
We've gone through our computer picks and told you what our predictive analytics model favors in Super Bowl LVII, but our NFL expert is 55-26-2 against the spread this season and he's here to preview this meeting between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles. This game will kick off at 6:30PM ET on Sunday, February 12, when we'll see Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs facing Jalen Hurts and the Eagles at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. This is one of those matchups that NFL fans were dreaming of all season long, so we're excited that it's finally here. Keep reading for some in-depth analysis on the game, but also make sure you check out everything else that Dimers has to offer for the Super Bowl. This is the biggest game of the year and we went all in on providing you with exciting content for it.
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Chiefs vs. Eagles Predictions
- Predicted score: Eagles 26 - 24 Chiefs
- No edge on either team to cover the 1.5-point spread
- 55% chance the Eagles win on the moneyline
- 53% shot Chiefs-Eagles stays Under 50.5
For the best NFL computer picks, check out our Chiefs vs. Eagles data predictions. They are constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.
Chiefs vs. Eagles Odds and Betting Lines
Will The Chiefs Cover The Spread?
That comes down to Mahomes and he's the reason I'd suggest a play on Kansas City, if you have to bet the spread (or moneyline) in this game. In fact, the best way to bet a side in this one might just be backing Mahomes to win Super Bowl MVP at plus-money odds. Kansas City is so beaten up and depleted that the only chance the team really has of winning this game is a Herculean effort from the best quarterback in the NFL. And all things considered, that seems rather likely.
Mahomes threw for 326 yards with two touchdowns and no picks against the Cincinnati Bengals last game, helping Kansas City earn a victory while playing on one leg. Now, the Chiefs have had two weeks to get his ankle in a better place, and the superstar has to feel like he is capable of taking down a great Eagles team. Kansas City might be without some wide receiver depth here, but Travis Kelce is still the best pass catcher on either one of these teams. Mahomes should be able to find him with regularity, and that will open up the field for somebody else to step up.
As for Kansas City's defense, coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will be confident that he can make Hurts uncomfortable in this game. Hurts was not making the throws he'll need to last game, so that opens up the opportunity for Kansas City to send pressure and also force Hurts to beat the secondary over the top.
The reality in this game is that the Chiefs have the best player on the field, and they also have a head coach that has won the Super Bowl before. That's a big edge. It's also hard to ignore that Kansas City is 37-20 against the spread in games with lines of +3 to -3 under Andy Reid.
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Will The Eagles Cover The Spread?
The path to the Eagles winning this game is a little easier than the other way around, but that doesn't mean it's a sure thing. Philadelphia is arguably the better team between these two, in general. However, if you throw in the injuries the Chiefs are dealing with, it becomes even easier to imagine the Eagles winning the Super Bowl.
Kansas City is depleted at wide receiver, which makes things difficult on Mahomes. Philadelphia also happens to have a remarkable defensive line, and the team's physicality up front could make for more issues for the Chiefs.
It's also just worth noting that the Eagles won their last game despite Hurts playing poorly, which had a lot to do with the San Francisco 49ers losing their quarterback. However, it still shows you how good this Philadelphia team is. The Eagles are capable of playing at a high level, even without Hurts playing well. The same can't be said for the Chiefs. Mahomes does not have the supporting cast that Hurts does, and he will need to be great in order for Kansas City to have a shot — and he'll need to do so against an Eagles team that was third in the league in overall DVOA this year.
It also should be mentioned that you shouldn't just expect two poor outings out of Hurts in a row. He had a special year for Philadelphia and has had two weeks to get over any nagging injuries that have limited him recently. That should do him wonders here.
Oddly enough, Kansas City also happens to be 0-7 ATS when coming off an ATS win this year.
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Why The Over Will Hit
Both of these teams have been leaning towards low-scoring games in recent weeks, yet the total for this one continues to rise. It opened up at 49.5 and is now up to 50.5 in most spots. And it certainly seems like the sharp action in this one is on the Over, which makes it pretty easy to want to jump on this.
Even with the Chiefs being down some weapons, this is still a team with the best quarterback in the game, and he'll likely lead quite a few successful drives by simply finding Kelce and then utilizing some of his running backs as receivers out of the backfield. Meanwhile, the Eagles have no injuries worth noting on offense, so you'd expect them to find a way to put up a decent number of points in this game.
An interesting trend to note when looking at this game is that the Over is 9-1 when Kansas City has played away from home against teams that commit 1.0 or fewer turnovers per game in the second half of the season under Reid. The average total points scored in those games was 65.6 points per game.
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Why The Under Will Hit
The case for the Under is really quite simple. Kansas City is playing this game banged up, so the team doesn't have its normal suite of weapons for Mahomes. When you combine that with the fact that Hurts look miserable as a thrower last game, it isn't too hard to envision this game potentially going Under the mark.
The Under has also hit in four of the last five games that the Chiefs have played, and the Eagles come into this one after having gone Under in four in a row and five of their last six. The weather being better definitely helps these two offenses, but will it fix everything? Keep reading!
Chiefs vs. Eagles Best Bet
This game is hard to call on the spread. I already suggested a play on the Eagles to win the Super Bowl at +550 odds before the playoffs started, and it doesn't make sense to add to the position — especially considering I'm leaning towards the Chiefs in this game. Instead, I'm rolling with the Over. These defenses have playmakers all over the field, but these offenses should benefit from getting two weeks to scheme. And the weather is supposed to be perfect.