NFL Playoffs Divisional Round: Bengals vs. Bills Predictions, Sunday, January 22, 2023

Last updated: Dec 21, 2023, 9:28PM | Published: Jan 18, 2023, 12:01AM

On Sunday, January 22, we'll get to see the Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills battle for a spot in the AFC Championship Game. This one will be played at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York, where the Bills will have a massive home-field advantage. With that in mind, find out how we think this one will play out in our Bengals vs. Bills betting preview. We're going to give you some in-depth analysis, as well as the NFL predictions from our predictive analytics model and world-class artificial intelligence. The Super Bowl is right around the corner, so we're pulling out all the stops. Let's have a fun couple of weeks, as this is one of the best parts of the year for sports bettors.

Players, coaches and medical staff members of the 2022 Bengals and Bills will be forever attached following the events on Monday Night Football in Week 17. The collapse of Buffalo safety Damar Hamlin on the Paycor Stadium turf that evening touched millions of lives, and his recovery from cardiac arrest was nothing short of a miracle.

Nearly three weeks after that marquee matchup was eventually postponed, these teams reunite with bigger stakes. Both squeaked by pesky wild-card round opponents to get here and will need an improved effort to advance.

If you haven't already, you should consider signing up for DraftKings ➡️ here ⬅️ as you can turn a $5 pre-game moneyline bet on any game into a bonus $200 if your team wins.

Bengals vs. Bills Predictions

Predicted score: Bills 26 - Bengals 22
52% probability the Bengals cover the 4.5-point spread
65% chance the Bills win on the moneyline
52% shot Bengals-Bills goes Under 49

For the best NFL computer picks, check out our Bengals vs. Bills data predictions. They are constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.

Bengals vs. Bills Odds and Betting Lines

Will The Bengals Cover The Spread?

Buffalo’s defense hasn’t faced too many dangerous passing offenses down the stretch — its eight-game winning streak list of victims includes the Cleveland Browns with Jacoby Brissett, New England Patriots, New York Jets, Chicago Bears and the Skylar Thompson-led Miami Dolphins.

Let’s see how the Bills fare against Joe Burrow, the league’s No. 2 passing leader behind only Patrick Mahomes. Burrow orchestrated a first-quarter touchdown drive in the postponed game and looked comfortable doing so. Like Josh Allen, he’s been here before and has plenty of weapons surrounding him and an even longer (nine games) winning streak.

Will The Bills Cover The Spread?

The Bills would be the first ones to admit they haven’t played a complete 60-minute game in quite some time, including last Sunday against injury-depleted Miami when Allen had three turnovers leading to 18 Dolphins points in the 34-31 victory.

Buffalo has the means on both sides of the ball to attack Cincinnati’s biggest two weaknesses — its banged-up offensive line and secondary. The Bills rolled up 423 yards of offense against Miami, with Allen connecting with seven different receivers, and recorded five sacks on defense.

There’s also Bills Mafia, and home-field advantage.

Why The Over Will Hit

Whenever there’s a matchup between two of the league’s most prolific passers, the Under is in trouble. Both quarterbacks threw for more than 4,000 yards and defense sure hasn’t been the theme so far in this year’s playoffs.

Whenever a game features skill position players like Allen, Burrow, Stefon Diggs, big-game Gabe Davis, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd, the chains and scoreboard will likely be on the move quite a bit.

Why The Under Will Hit

Considering how every playoff game has unfolded so far, this number is going to be a tough sell for most and could rise before kickoff as long as the weather cooperates.

Before beating Baltimore in consecutive weeks and both games barely eclipsing the Overs, four of the previous five Bengals games stayed Under.

Buffalo’s defense ranked No. 7 overall and allowed only 231 total yards to the Dolphins.

Bengals vs. Bills Prediction

Lean: Bills -4.5

These teams have combined to win 17 straight. Sentimental fans were hoping this matchup would decide the AFC. It won’t, but the Bills will continue their path and dethrone the defending conference champs.

Tony Bellissimo

Tony Bellissimo brings more than 25 years of sports reporting/editing experience to Dimers.com, as well as an extensive background covering all major professional sports, including 10 seasons (1998-2007) as NFL Editor of College & Pro Football Newsweekly. He's earned more than a dozen New York State Press Association awards, including Sports Writer of the Year (2nd place) in 2019, and oversees the sports coverage of 30 high schools and several colleges on Long Island.