NFL Futures: 2022 AFC East Betting Preview, Picks and Analysis

Last season, the Buffalo Bills went 11-6 en route to winning the AFC East, with the New England Patriots not being far behind at 10-7. This year, the Bills are the heavy betting favorites to win the division again, with the Patriots and Miami Dolphins having similar odds to be the ones to dethrone one of the NFL's best teams. 

Will anybody challenge Buffalo for the top spot in this division? You'll just have to keep reading to find out, as we're going deep on all four teams in our AFC East betting preview. 

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AFC East Betting Preview, Picks and Analysis

Buffalo Bills

It wouldn’t be much of a stretch to say that the Bills were a play or two away from winning a Super Bowl last year. Buffalo just needed to find a way to get Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs off the field late in their AFC Divisional Round match-up. The Bills were ultimately unable to do that, but that’s why the team brought in Von Miller this offseason. Miller signed a six-year, $120 million deal, with about $51.4 million in guaranteed money. The 33-year-old likely isn’t worth all that money at this point in his career, but his ability to rush the passer just might have made the difference the Bills needed against the Chiefs last year. Miller is an upgrade as a defensive presence over Mario Addison, Buffalo’s sack leader in 2021.  

The offense, which is led by MVP favorite Josh Allen, should be one of the best units in all of football after having returned most of its key pieces from a team that averaged 28.4 points per game last year. Even with former offensive coordinator Brian Daboll now leading the New York Giants, this group is just far too talented not to continue torching opposing defenses. A good argument can be made that Allen is the best quarterback in the league at this point — he finished third in the league with a PFF grade of 90.9 in 2021 — and the team has plenty of weapons around him. That includes the addition of former University of Georgia standout James Cook, who adds a little more juice to the team’s backfield.

Verdict: All in all, the Bills are clearly the class of the AFC East right now, and they just might be the best team in football, on paper. With that in mind, it wouldn’t be too crazy to bet Buffalo to win the division, even if the odds aren’t favorable. The only thing that can really derail this team is a major injury to Allen, but Buffalo does have one of the more capable backups in the league in Case Keenum.

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins bounced back from a 1-7 start last year and ultimately ended up going 9-8 on the season. In six of Miami’s final nine games, the team held opponents to 17 or fewer points. It was that tenacious defense that got the Dolphins back on track, and they’ll be hoping that unit brings it again in 2022. For what it’s worth, most of the key contributors from that group are back, including cornerback Xavien Howard and defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah. If those two can be the cornerstones of a Top 10 unit, the Dolphins will challenge for a playoff spot.

The defense is of the upmost importance next season because the offense really should be able to do big things under new head coach Mike McDaniel. The former San Francisco 49ers offensive coordinator is being tasked with getting Tua Tagovailoa right, and he should be able to do just that if the Miami offensive line holds up. The 49ers are one of the best teams in the league at getting their playmakers the ball in space, and the Dolphins will now look to mimic. Miami will, however be doing that with serious weapons like Jaylen Waddle and the newly acquired Tyreek Hill. With those two being some of the fastest players the league has to offer, that should make opposing defenses nervous.

Verdict: The Dolphins are probably a year or two away from seriously contending in the division. We’d stay away from them at these odds, even if a wild-card spot is a real possibility for Miami. 

New England Patriots

In Mac Jones’ first season with the Patriots, the former University of Alabama star was the most productive rookie quarterback in the league. Jones threw for 3,801 yards with 22 touchdowns and only 13 interceptions, and he was an extremely effective game manager for what essentially looked like a Big Ten offense.

With Tom Brady no longer in Foxborough, Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels (now the head coach of the Las Vegas Raiders) knew they needed to drastically change their offensive system. That led them in the direction of just pounding the rock with Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson, a duo that is back and ready to go this season. New England will likely take the same approach this season, although the arrival of former Dolphins receiver DeVante Parker could open up the passing game a little more. Parker is a good contested-catch option, which is something the Patriots have lacked in recent years.

Defensively, only the Bills gave up fewer points per game than the 17.8 the Patriots gave up last season. New England should once again be superb on that side of the ball, which is why Belichick’s squad has a very high floor.

Verdict: Look for the Patriots to once again be a wild-card team in the AFC, but it’ll take an injury to Allen for them to get back to being the division champs. With that in mind, you should lay off them here. But do so knowing that New England is a few pieces away from being a contender at some point in the next few years.

New York Jets

The Jets should be a lot more competitive this season than they were a year ago. The team went out and upgraded its offensive line with the signing of Laken Tomlinson, and the front office then doubled down on the running game by using a second-round pick on Breece Hall, who could be the best rookie running back in the league this year. Finding a way to get the running game working will unlock New York’s offense, as offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur is another former 49ers assistant and everything that team did was built on its ability to run.

New York might not have one of the most explosive offenses in the league right away, but significant strides should be made if Zach Wilson makes some real improvements in his sophomore season. If he doesn’t, the Jets will at least be well positioned to bring in one of the highly regarded prospects in the 2023 NFL Draft. Whichever young quarterback is under center next year would be surrounded by a team that isn’t far away from turning into a winner.  

Verdict: Overall, New York isn’t going to be much of a factor in the AFC East this year, but the Jets are in better shape than they’ve been in previous years. They have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball, and they just need to keep improving. Winning six or so games and being competitive in losses would be a step in the right direction for New York, which is currently trying to change its culture under head coach Robert Saleh.

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