Dolphins vs. Chargers: NFL Predictions for Sunday Night Football on December 11, 2022

Last updated: Dec 21, 2023, 6:33PM | Published: Dec 6, 2022, 8:55PM

The NFL spared the country another prime time viewing of the Broncos horrific offense by flexing out Denver-Kansas City in favor of this intriguing matchup between young quarterbacks chosen back-to-back early in the first round of the 2020 draft.

Tua Tagovailoa, selected fifth by the Dolphins, and Justin Herbert, taken sixth by the Chargers and winner of the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award, will lock horns in an important AFC showdown.

Miami is headed cross country for a second straight week and that could be a factor after it traveled to San Francisco and lost convincingly to the 49ers last Sunday. Los Angeles comes of a defeat in Las Vegas.

Find out how we think this one will play out in our Dolphins vs. Chargers betting preview.

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Dolphins vs. Chargers Computer Picks

Predictive Analytics Data

52% shot the Chargers cover the +3.5 point spread
60% chance the Dolphins win on the moneyline
51% probability Dolphins-Chargers goes Under 54.5

For the best NFL computer picks, check out our Dolphins vs. Chargers data predictions. They are constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.

Dolphins vs. Chargers Odds and Betting Lines

Will The Dolphins Cover The Spread?

The Chargers have not played well at home. They’ve lost three of their last four at SoFi, with the lone victory coming in overtime against Denver.

Despite focusing on fixing a leaky defense during the offseason, Los Angeles hasn’t been able to take any pressure off Herbert and the offense. The Chargers have yielded at least 30 points in three of those aforementioned home games and rank 29th against the run and 26th overall.

Miami’s ground attack has improved following the acquisition of Jeff Wilson Jr. from San Francisco and should create plenty of havoc.

Is Tony Pollard the better Cowboy running back to bet on Sunday? We weigh it up on Week 14's Prop or Chop!

Will The Chargers Cover The Spread?

A healthy lineup would be a nice start. Herbert’s favorite target since he entered the league, Keenan Allen, finally appears close to 100 percent. But, Mike Williams, projected by many to rise into the elite of elite receiver conversation this season, is not. Williams has suited up for just eight games and missed the last two with an ankle injury.

Just as important this week are Chargers’ defensive backs Asante Samuel Jr. and Michael Davis. Can they limit the damage Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, who was banged up last week in San Francisco, figure to do?

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Why The Over Will Hit

Admit it, even after the Hill trade you didn’t have the Dolphins flexing the second-best passing offense in the league with a month remaining in the season. That’s right, Tua & Co. are gobbling up 304.9 yards per game through the air and capable of putting up 30 points any week.

Also consider neither of these defenses has been a model of consistency. Miami has allowed 38, 40, 31 and 32 to less talented offenses than the Chargers.

Why The Under Will Hit

The Dolphins won’t be afraid to get involved in a shootout, but at the same time that would play right into the Chargers’ hands as even with Austin Ekeler, their running game is mediocre at best.

Getting Raheem Mostert back last Sunday provided Miami with more backfield options and it will want to keep Herbert on the sideline as much as possible.

Dolphins vs. Chargers Prediction

Lean: Dolphins -3.5

No question this game has major playoff implications. Far away from home for a second straight week and with a matchup in Buffalo on their minds, the Dolphins could struggle but should find a way to cover.

Tony Bellissimo

Tony Bellissimo brings more than 25 years of sports reporting/editing experience to Dimers.com, as well as an extensive background covering all major professional sports, including 10 seasons (1998-2007) as NFL Editor of College & Pro Football Newsweekly. He's earned more than a dozen New York State Press Association awards, including Sports Writer of the Year (2nd place) in 2019, and oversees the sports coverage of 30 high schools and several colleges on Long Island.