Dolphins vs. Bills: NFL Playoff Predictions for Wild Card Round on Sunday, January 15, 2023

Last updated: Dec 21, 2023, 8:46PM | Published: Jan 9, 2023, 8:12PM

The Buffalo Bills are big favorites over the Miami Dolphins in their Sunday, January 15 meeting in the Wild Card Round at 1:00PM ET. This game will be played at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York, where the freezing cold temperatures generally play into the hands of the home team. We're looking forward to this AFC East showdown, so keep reading to see how our expert thinks it will play out. But also know that we're here to give you our computer picks and predictions, which are backed by our predictive analytics and artificial intelligence. You'll also find all of those below. The Super Bowl is right around the corner, so we're pulling out all the stops. This is the most exciting time of the year for NFL fans and we want to do our part in making it special.

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Dolphins vs. Bills Predictions

Predicted score: Bills 27 - Dolphins 17
No edge on either team to cover the 10.5-point spread
84% chance the Bills win on the moneyline
52% probability Dolphins-Bills goes Under 43.5

For the best NFL computer picks, check out our Dolphins vs. Bills data predictions. They are constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.

Dolphins vs. Bills Odds and Betting Lines

Will The Dolphins Cover The Spread?

The Dolphins were able to defeat the New York Jets to secure their spot in the postseason in Week 18, but they were only able to score 11 points in that game — with two of those coming on a safety when the Jets tried to lateral their way to a victory. This offense is just an absolute zero without Tua Tagovailoa, who was ruled out for the game on Wednesday.

This now just seems very unlikely, which is a huge disappointment after many people thought this team was a contender after a hot start in 2022.

Will The Bills Cover The Spread?

It's hard to see how Buffalo doesn't end up covering. The Bills know what it takes to win games in the cold, which is a huge advantage in an outdoor matchup at Orchard Park. And this is just a Buffalo team that is fueled by last season's loss in the AFC Divisional Round, making it Super Bowl or bust for Josh Allen and Co.

The Bills are also 10-1 against the spread when playing at home after back-to-back games in which they scored 25 or more points under head coach Sean McDermott. Buffalo has won those games by an average of 16.6 points per game, and a double-digit win definitely seems realistic against this version of Miami.

Why The Over Will Hit

The Over would hit simply because this total is ridiculously low for two teams that are loaded with offensive talent. And realistically, the Bills are capable of handing a bulk of this scoring on their own.

Buffalo has scored at least 32 points in each of its last three games, and the Bills scored 32 on this very Dolphins defense back on December 17. That game saw 61 total points scored on a total of just 44.5. If Buffalo does what it normally does, Miami would just need two touchdowns to help Over bettors. Even without Tua, that is somewhat possible.

Why The Under Will Hit

With no Tua, the Dolphins will be relying on the running game and operating a bend-don't-break defense on the other side of the ball. They'll strictly try and avoid giving up big plays over the top against Allen and the Bills passing game. And the colder weather definitely will be a factor here — with it expected to be around 30 degrees.

The Under is also 3-1 in the last four meetings between these teams, and that was before we saw Miami with Skylar Thompson at quarterback.

Dolphins vs. Bills Prediction

Lean: Under 43.5

It's just impossible to pick against the Under after seeing the dud the Dolphins turned in against the Jets. With Tua out, they'll have a very hard time manufacturing any offense against the Bills. And Buffalo won't even need to let Allen air it out with his arm.

Zachary Cohen

Zachary Cohen has been writing about betting and fantasy sports since his days at the University of Wisconsin. His work has since been featured for prominent players like Covers, Sports Illustrated, Forbes Sports, Tennis Channel and FOX Bet. Zach is extremely passionate about all things sports, but he's especially into the NBA and college athletics. Zach is also a sucker for bad comedies and reality TV.

Twitter: @_ZCO

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