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NFL Conference Championship Games: Best Bets - Sunday, January 29Jan 29, 2023, 5:11PM
We're 52-26-2 with our NFL best bets this season and we're giving you three plays for Sunday, January 29, which features the San Francisco 49ers taking on the Philadelphia Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Cincinnati Bengals in their respective Conference Championship Games. Despite the fact that there are only two games on Sunday, we will still give you three picks. Our expert's plays have hit at a 66% win rate this year. And if you don't like what you see here, our predictive analytics model also has some NFL playoffs computer picks that you might be more comfortable following. Either way, we have you covered as we near the end of the road to the Super Bowl. Let's have ourselves a nice weekend!
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NFL Playoffs: Conference Championship Game Best Bets For Sunday
San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles - 3:00PM (ET)
This game has already seen a decent amount of line movement, as it opened at 1.5 and has since gone to 2.5. However, we're comfortable taking Philadelphia at this number, but it'll be worth reconsidering if the line ultimately ends up touching 3.
This Eagles team is arguably the most balanced group in the entire NFL, as it was third in the league in offensive DVOA and sixth in the league in defensive DVOA. The 49ers do have the luxury of having the best defense in the entire NFL, but a great offense tends to get the best of a great defense. And there aren't many answers for this Philadelphia offense when Jalen Hurts is playing well.
The Eagles also won't be too intimidated by the 49ers' elite defense, as Philadelphia is 6-0 against the spread versus teams that allow 17.0 or fewer points per game over the last three seasons.
The 49ers also happen to have a legitimate question mark under center, as Brock Purdy is largely unproven as a starting NFL quarterback. Mr. Irrelevant played some great football towards the end of the season for San Francisco, but he didn't look good against the Dallas Cowboys last week. And having to go on the road and play well against Philadelphia is going to be very difficult in front of the rowdiest fans on the planet.
PICK: Eagles -2.5 (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
🏈 49ers vs. Eagles Predictions
RELATED: Playoff Analysis for 49ers vs. Eagles
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Kansas City Chiefs - 6:30PM (ET)
Since becoming a starter, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are 5-3 straight-up when playing as underdogs. Kansas City is also 8-2 when playing at home in the playoffs with Mahomes under center. And while the superstar's movement might be a little compromised by a high ankle sprain, it's just hard not to back the Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium. Not much separates these two football teams, so we're just playing the value.
Kansas City should have no trouble slowing down the Cincinnati running game, as handoffs to Joe Mixon have become one of the least efficient play calls in the sport. That should give the Chiefs the benefit of knowing exactly when the Bengals will need to throw, as there will be plenty of obvious passing situations. Of course, even knowing when the Bengals will pass doesn't make things easy, as Joe Burrow is one of the best quarterbacks in the league and he's surrounded by elite weapons. But it should help defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo quite a bit, and he's very good at getting his unit prepared.
We do want to note that the Chiefs are 14-1 ATS when coming off back-to-back games with a turnover margin of +2 or better since Andy Reid became the team's head coach. Kansas City has won those games by an average of 11.8 points per game.
PICK: Chiefs ML (+110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
This is going to be a game in which casual bettors flock to the Over, as a meeting between Burrow and Mahomes sounds like a shootout. But it's important to remember that this is a game in which a spot in the Super Bowl will be on the line, so both defenses are going to be amped up and ready to go. And games like these don't normally turn into high-scoring affairs.
It's helpful that the weather isn't going to be very offense-friendly on Sunday, as it's going to be cold and a little windy in Kansas City for this one. We also like that the Under is 9-1 when Cincinnati has played on the road in the second half of the year against teams with winning records under head coach Zac Taylor. Those games had a combined 37.1 points per game scored.
PICK: Under 47.5 (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
🏈 Bengals vs. Chiefs Predictions
RELATED: Playoff Analysis for Bengals vs. Chiefs