NFL Computer Picks, Best Bets and Analysis For Broncos vs. Seahawks MNF on September 12, 2022

Russell Wilson makes his return to Lumen Field in Seattle, where his Denver Broncos take on the Seattle Seahawks for a little Monday Night Football on Monday, September 12 at 8:15PM ET. 

Will Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll find a way to get his team up for the task of defeating his former quarterback, who happens to be a future Hall-of-Famer? Find out how we think this one will play out in our Broncos vs. Seahawks betting preview below. 

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Broncos vs. Seahawks Computer Picks

• Predicted score: Broncos 24 - Seahawks 20
• 67% chance the Broncos win on the money line
• 58% chance the Seahawks cover the +6.5 spread
• 54% Broncos at Seahawks goes Under 44.5 total points

For the most up to date NFL computer picks, check out our Broncos vs. Seahawks live predictions. They are constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.

Broncos vs. Seahawks Best Bets and Analysis

Spread Breakdown

The Broncos are looking like a team with an outside shot at competing for a Super Bowl this year, as Wilson is viewed as the final piece for a team that is pretty complete at the moment. Denver already had a great running game last year, with Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon making up one of the best backfields in football. And the team's group of pass-catchers has always been better than the on-field production suggested, as Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy are two studs that just needed to be freed from an offense led by Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater. Both wideouts are in for big years with Wilson in the mix. 

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Despite Denver's offense looking excellent on paper — and the team also having some serious talent on the other side of the ball — we still ultimately like Seattle to keep this game close. The Seahawks might be a team that looks destined to finish near the bottom of the standings, but Carroll knows Wilson inside and out. That should help him and his team put together a decent plan to limit him from going crazy in this game.

Seattle is also a team that has built its foundation on running the football and not making big mistakes on defense. That antiquated style of play might be boring to watch, but it does help teams keep games close. It's hard to win by a touchdown or more in games that don't ever really open up, and the Seahawks will be doing their best to make sure that doesn't happen. 

The Seahawks also happen to be 18-8 against the spread as home underdogs under Carroll, and they're 7-2-1 straight-up and 7-3 ATS as home underdogs of 3.5 to 7 points. We like Seattle to keep this one close, but this is a game in which you might want to buy a point to back the home team. 

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Over/Under Breakdown

Not only does Seattle's style of play give the team a chance to keep this game close, but it should also prevent it from going Over the total. In Carroll's perfect world, the Seahawks will run the ball at least 30 times in this game and that would really eat at the clock — while also preventing the Broncos offense from ever being able to find a rhythm. And even though Seattle's defense has some real areas for concern this year, we'd expect that unit to rise to the occasion in a game in which the team's coaches will surely be hammering home the revenge angle with Wilson. 

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It's also worth noting that the Under is 14-5 in games in which Wilson has played as a road favorite over the last five seasons. He normally does his best work at home, but this won't be the same comforting environment it was when he was wearing those neon green uniforms. 

Best Bet: Broncos vs. Seahawks

We really like the Seahawks in this game, but we'd love it even more if you can buy a half-point or a point to get it to +7 or +7.5. Our best bet for this one is Seattle +7.5, which you can get a reasonable price with FanDuel Sportsbook. The +6.5 line should really hit on its own, but buying protects you in the event that the Broncos end up winning by a touchdown. 

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