Chargers vs. Jaguars: NFL Playoff Predictions for Wild Card Round on Saturday, January 14, 2023

Last updated: Dec 21, 2023, 8:52PM | Published: Jan 10, 2023, 8:52PM

In a rematch of a game in which the Jacksonville Jaguars whooped the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 3, the Jags will hope that home-field advantage can lead them to a playoff win over the Chargers in the NFL Wild Card Round on Saturday, January 14. With that in mind, find out how we think this one will play out in our Chargers vs. Jaguars betting preview. We're going to give you some in-depth analysis, as well as the NFL predictions from our predictive analytics model and world-class artificial intelligence. The Super Bowl is right around the corner, so we're pulling out all the stops. Let's have a fun couple of weeks, as this is one of the best parts of the year for sports bettors.

With a prolific offense and fat offseason spending to improve their defense, the Chargers were expected to be playing football in mid-January and here they are following a 10-win regular season and second-place finish in the AFC West.

The Jaguars, meanwhile, are division champs a year after finishing dead last in the league and selecting edge Travon Walker with the No. 1 pick of the draft. Jacksonville rose from the dead down the stretch to earn the AFC South crown with a five-game win streak.

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Chargers vs. Jaguars Predictions

Predicted score: Chargers 23 - Jaguars 23
52% probability on Jaguars to cover the 1.5-point spread
No edge on either team to win on the moneyline
54% shot Chargers-Jaguars goes Under 47.5

For the best NFL computer picks, check out our Chargers vs. Jaguars data predictions. They are constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.

Chargers vs. Jaguars Odds and Betting Lines

Will The Chargers Cover The Spread?

Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen and perhaps kicker Cameron Dicker.

The Chargers must protect Herbert (25 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 38 sacks) at all costs and allow him to make plays. He threw 699 times during the regular season compared to just 273 handoffs to Ekeler and Josh Kelly, so there’s little debate where the offensive push is going to come from this week.

Another key of course will be the Los Angeles defense. Inconsistent to say the least, the unit had a four-game streak of allowing 17 points or fewer snapped in last week’s loss at Denver.

BEST BETS: Our three best plays for NFL Wild Card Round

Will The Jaguars Cover The Spread?

The Chargers were locked into the No. 5 seed prior to its late-afternoon kickoff at Denver yet head coach Brandon Staley elected to play most of the starters for almost the full game. As a result, an injury to wide receiver Mike Williams could benefit the Jaguars this week.

Jacksonville not only has a coaching edge in this matchup, with Doug Pederson having won a Super Bowl, but also a confidence edge having beaten the Chargers already and with only one loss since Thanksgiving.

Why The Over Will Hit

The Chargers have one of the league’s best dual-threats out of the backfield in Ekeler, yet they ranked ahead of only two teams when it came to running the ball, averaging only 91.5 yards per game. What that means is the visitors will live and die on the arm of Herbert, who was banged up with injured ribs when these teams met in September.

Jacksonville’s offense is balanced and can do damage with Lawrence as well as take advantage of Los Angeles’ 27th-ranked run defense.

Why The Under Will Hit

Each of Jacksonville’s last three games has stayed Under, with the defense allowing only a field goal to both the New York Jets and Houston Texans, and one touchdown and 16 points last Saturday night to the Tennessee Titans.

On the flip side, the Chargers ranked No. 7 against the pass (213 ypg) and could employ a nickel defender often to take away the Jaguars’ strength.

Giants vs. Vikings Prediction

Lean: Jaguars +1

The Jaguars won’t have the better quarterback or running back on the field, but they will have the best defense and the luxury of playing a home. Jacksonville by a nose.

Tony Bellissimo

Tony Bellissimo brings more than 25 years of sports reporting/editing experience to Dimers.com, as well as an extensive background covering all major professional sports, including 10 seasons (1998-2007) as NFL Editor of College & Pro Football Newsweekly. He's earned more than a dozen New York State Press Association awards, including Sports Writer of the Year (2nd place) in 2019, and oversees the sports coverage of 30 high schools and several colleges on Long Island.