NFL Championship Sunday: Player Prop Picks

If you haven’t started betting yet, this is the time to get involved! For one, the sportsbooks are going in with promotions left, right and center for new bettors. And secondly, it’s almost Super Bowl week! 

But before we get to SB LV, we have ourselves two huge Conference Championship games, each of which our NFL model has simulated over 10,000 times to determine not only the likely final scores, but also the best player prop bets to make when run up against sportsbook odds.

Bucs @ Packers 🏈

First up we have the Bucs and Packers, with plenty of value across the board here, and some fun picks for first touchdown scorers if that’s what you’re here for!

💰 Quarterback passing yards

Firstly for this game, we’re going to look at the passing yards markets for the two future hall of fame QBs. FanDuel Sportsbook has Aaron Rodgers Over/Under at 283.5 and Tom Brady’s at a slightly higher 285.5.

Interestingly, our model has these two the other way around, with Rodgers projected to throw for 292 yards and Brady for 270. Both the Rodgers OVER and Brady UNDER bets look good here.

💰 First touchdown scorer

Picking the first touchdown scorer in any given game can be very hard but can also produce a healthy payout if you do nail it! The most likely guy to score first in this one looks like star WR Davante Adams (13.1% probability) whilst a fun one to root for could be Antonio Brown at +1500 odds who our model sees as a 4.7% chance of getting in first!

💰 Receiving yards

If you think that either of the two star QBs will be seeking out a particular receiver a lot in this one, then the receiving yards market is the one for you! Our model has Allen Lazard finishing on 51 receiving yards, which would see him hit his Over. For the Bucs, Rob Gronkowski’s line has been set at 27.5 yards, with our data suggesting he should get around 32!

Bills @ Chiefs 🏈

Next up we have the AFC title game between the rampant Bills and reigning champ Chiefs! This one has been very highly anticipated and again provides us with some great opportunities to win some money in the player props markets!

💰 Quarterback passing yards

The first game may have had Rodgers and Brady but this QB battle is arguably even more exciting with two young superstars going head-to-head in Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes! At the time of writing, Mahomes is still no guarantee to play due to both the concussion protocol and an injured toe, so we’re going to focus on Allen here. FanDuel Sportsbook has set his passing yards at 302.5, which sits higher than the 282 yards we have him projected to get!

💰 First touchdown scorer

According to our projections, Tyreek Hill is an 11.2% chance of scoring the first TD in this one, placing him atop a list that features Travis, Kelce, Stefon Diggs and David Singletary. If you're looking for a bit more value, it's hard to look past Cole Beasley at +1600 odds for a nice payout!

💰 Receiving yards

When it comes to receiving yards bets, our model has identified an edge in Stefon Diggs at the OVER. It's always fun to root for a WR like Diggs to take more catches, so this should be a popular play! If you're looking to fade the Chiefs' offense in this game, then our projections have Travis Kelce receiving for just 77 yards, falling way short of the 92.5 being set by the sportsbooks.

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