Bills vs. Patriots Computer Picks, NFL Odds and Prediction for Thursday Night Football on December 1, 2022

Last updated: Dec 21, 2023, 6:06PM | Published: Nov 27, 2022, 11:12PM

The New England Patriots are coming off a rough Thanksgiving Day loss to the Minnesota Vikings, but they'll need to quickly regroup for a meeting with the Buffalo Bills at 8:15PM ET on Thursday, December 1.

Find out how we think this one will play out in our Bills vs. Patriots betting preview.

If you haven't already, you should consider signing up for DraftKings ➡️ here ⬅️ as you can turn a $5 pre-game moneyline bet on any game into a free $150 if your team wins.

Bills vs. Patriots Computer Picks

Predictive Analytics Data

No edge on either team to cover the 5.5-point spread
63% chance the Bills win on the moneyline
No edge on the Bills-Patriots Over/Under

For the best NFL computer picks, check out our Bills vs. Patriots data predictions. They are constantly updating based on hundreds of different data points.

Bills vs. Patriots Odds and Betting Lines

Why Bills Will Cover The Spread

The Bills might be a little too explosive offensively for this version of the Patriots. Mac Jones came out firing for New England on Thanksgiving Day, but he fell apart when the pressure was on in the second half. The Patriots offense ended up stalling a bit and Jones looked uncomfortable in the face of adversity. Considering the Bills can score touchdowns in a hurry, they'll feel good about their chances here.

Buffalo is also 10-2 against the spread when coming off a non-conference game over the last three seasons. The Bills have won those games by an average of 12.3 points per game.

Why Patriots Will Cover The Spread

Over the last three seasons, New England is 8-1 ATS in home games in the second half of the year against teams that give up a completion percentage of 61% or better. The Patriots have won those games by an average of 13.8 points per game and they did see Jones move the ball through the air against the Vikings. Bill Belichick and Co. will just need to find a way to help Jones get a little more settled in against heavy pressure, as he'll definitely see some of that here — even with Von Miller hurt for the Bills.

New England also happens to be 28-14 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points under Belichick, and the team is also going to feel good about its ability to keep this close with the running game. The Patriots have a monster in the backfield in Rhamondre Stevenson, and he'll look to wear out the Bills defenders and also help keep Josh Allen off the field here. That would go a long way in helping New England cover.

Why The Over Will Hit

The Over has hit in two of the last three games that the Bills have played, and even last week's Under was a game in which they combined to score 53 points with the Lions. Meanwhile, the Patriots also found themselves in a shootout, as they lost 33-26 against the Vikings. On top of that, the Over is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings between these two teams.

The Bills have now scored at least 28 points in each of their last three games and the reality is that it's hard to see games going Under the total as long as Buffalo is hot offensively.

Why The Under Will Hit

The Under is 6-0 in Bills road games this season and it just wouldn't be shocking if that trend continued. These are two teams that know each other very well and divisional matchups like these tend to look like playoff games. That means a little more focus on defense and running the football, which is always a good thing for an Under bettor.

New England also knows that it will need to play a low-scoring game in order to even have a shot in this one. That means that the Pats will do everything they can to keep the chains moving, the clock running and the Bills off the field. Expect a run-heavy approach from the home team.

Bills vs. Patriots Prediction

Lean: Patriots +5.5

The Bills are coming off a big win over the Lions, but this is a little too many points to be giving a home underdog in a divisional matchup. If we're taking anything, we're riding with Belichick's boys.

Zachary Cohen

Zachary Cohen has been writing about betting and fantasy sports since his days at the University of Wisconsin. His work has since been featured for prominent players like Covers, Sports Illustrated, Forbes Sports, Tennis Channel and FOX Bet. Zach is extremely passionate about all things sports, but he's especially into the NBA and college athletics. Zach is also a sucker for bad comedies and reality TV.

Twitter: @_ZCO

On the socials