NFL 2022 Predictive Analytics Model Suggests Russell Wilson’s Impact May Be Overrated

In an NFL off-season full of big moves, probably none shook the league more than quarterback Russell Wilson being traded from the Seattle Seahawks to the Denver Broncos.

Dimers.com Managing Editor Matt Hickman takes a look at why that move might not have the impact most bettors and oddsmakers expect.

The Broncos, who have struggled mightily to find consistency at quarterback since Peyton Manning retired in 2016, immediately shot up the charts in the eyes of the oddsmakers once they secured Wilson's services.

Denver comes into the 2022-23 NFL season +1600 to win the Super Bowl, according to Caesar’s Sportsbook, and the Broncos’ over/under win total for the regular season is locked in at 10.5.

Meanwhile, Seattle, trying to get by with the unspectacular Drew Lock, for whom Wilson was traded, predictably fell to the bottom of the pack with Super Bowl 57 odds coming in at +15500 and an over/under win total of 5.5.

As for individual honors, Wilson carries +1400 odds, the seventh-best, to win NFL MVP honors.

Clearly, the human oddsmakers see Wilson as an enormous difference-maker for both teams. However, the Dimers.com predictive analytics model — aka the DimersBOT — isn’t nearly so bullish on Wilson.

Biggest 2022 NFL Edges on Under Win Total Bets

	Line (Wins)	DimersBOT	Difference
Denver Broncos	10.5	9.3114	-1.1886
Jacksonville Jaguars	6.5	5.5208	-0.9792
Los Angeles Chargers	10.5	9.6456	-0.8644
New York Giants	7.5	6.6884	-0.8116
Pittsburgh Steelers	7.5	6.8682	-0.6318
Minnesota Vikings	9.5	9.0592	-0.4408
New York Jets	5.5	5.1294	-0.3706
Kansas City Chiefs	10.5	10.187	-0.313
Carolina Panthers	6.5	6.2524	-0.2476
Las Vegas Raiders	8.5	8.2794	-0.2206
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	11.5	11.3304	-0.1696
Los Angeles Rams	10.5	10.3598	-0.1402
Buffalo Bills	11.5	11.4924	-0.0076
Tennessee Titans	9.5	9.4652	-0.0348

In running more than 10,000 simulations, the DimersBOT places the line for the Broncos’ win total at 9.3114, which is 1.1886 lower than the 10.5 Vegas line, by far the biggest discrepancy among the 32 teams. The next closest is the Jacksonville Jaguars at -0.9792.

On the flipside, Seattle has the third-highest edge on the over with our model predicting them at 6.1718 wins, 0.6718 above Vegas, bested only by the Atlanta Falcons (+0.8728) and the New England Patriots (+0.6792).

Biggest 2022 NFL Edges on Over Win Total Bets

	Line (Wins)	DimersBOT	Difference
Atlanta Falcons	4.5	5.3728	0.8728
New England Patriots	8.5	9.1792	0.6792
Seattle Seahawks	5.5	6.1718	0.6718
Indianapolis Colts	9.5	10.0868	0.5868
Washington Commanders	7.5	8.0566	0.5566
Philadelphia Eagles	9.5	9.955	0.455
Baltimore Ravens	9.5	9.943	0.443
Cleveland Browns	8.5	8.8582	0.3582
San Francisco 49ers	9.5	9.8134	0.3134
Arizona Cardinals	8.5	8.7716	0.2716
Houston Texans	4.5	4.7308	0.2308
Cincinnati Bengals	9.5	9.7204	0.2204
Miami Dolphins	8.5	8.6498	0.1498
Dallas Cowboys	10.5	10.6192	0.1192
Chicago Bears	6.5	6.6174	0.1174
Green Bay Packers	10.5	10.764	0.264
New Orleans Saints	8.5	8.551	0.051
Detroit Lions	6.5	6.5494	0.0494

Showing such significant edges for the Seahawks vs. expectations and against the Broncos vs. expectations could mean our Bot has identified some historical weaknesses in Wilson’s resumé.

One factor could be the division he’s joining. 

In eight career games vs. AFC West opponents, Wilson’s Seahawks were just 4-4 and his passer rating just 99.8 compared to his overall record of 104-53-1 and career passer rating of 101.8.

New Team. New Faces. Same mission. WIN & INSPIRE. #Gratitude pic.twitter.com/OFxsgxx0V3

— Russell Wilson (@DangeRussWilson) August 8, 2022

The predictive analytics model may also be taking note of the less experienced and less explosive receiving corps Wilson will have to work with in Denver.

Wilson won’t have the freakish athleticism of D.K. Metcalf to throw to in traffic, and gone are the days of him airing it out deep for Tyler Lockett who effortlessly seemed to get behind every secondary.

Lockett and Metcalf have 78 combined career touchdowns compared to just 15 for Wilson’s two new top targets Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton.

Correlation is not causation, but there’s no doubting the extreme edge our simulator has found to bet the Broncos to finish under 10.5 wins, and its relative confidence in finding the Seahawks to finish above 5.5 wins, could mean there just may be something more subjective than objective in the rush to suddenly crown the Broncos a playoff team.