NFC West Betting Preview - Division Winner Odds, Win Totals and Team Outlooks

NFC West Betting Preview - Division Winner Odds, Win Totals and Team Outlooks

Can you feel it? The 2023-24 NFL season is inching closer by the day. As of this writing, we are now just weeks away from kickoff between the Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions on Thursday, September 7. We can’t wait to dive into betting on this season, from parlays and futures to TD round Robins and more, this year has potential to be our best yet.

Full-fledged preseason is here. This is where we’ll see who cracks the roster bubble, shaping the final outlook for each team and finalizing the player pools from which we’ll be drafting our fantasy squads. We even get to watch Aaron Rodgers and Co. on Hard Knocks this year, which is proving to be top-quality entertainment.

In order to fully prep for the wealth of betting opportunities we’ll have this season, we’ve analyzed each of the eight NFL divisions. Combining our cutting-edge predictive analytics model with our own know-how, we look at key offseason moves, the outlook for each team as predicted by DimersBOT and even some futures bets with value worth jumping on now.

MORE: Three Early NFL Futures Bets to Make Now

Before we get started, we have to recommend that you head over to our revamped Best Sportsbooks section which features an all-new user-friendly look, complete with in-depth reviews of every online sportsbook. Even better, you’ll be able to see which books are available to you specifically along with every exclusive promo offer you can take advantage of. The NFL is far and away the most popular sport in the United States for betting and there are countless daily and weekly promotions throughout the season. Having access to every possible book you can is crucial to turning a long-term profit over the season and beyond.

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NFL Divisional Previews

AFC East | AFC WestAFC South | AFC North

NFC East | NFC North | NFC West | NFC South

NFC West Division Preview

SF 49ers -160 67.2%
LA Rams +1000 16.1%
SEA Seahawks +200 15.3%
ARI Cardinals +2500 1.4%

Play this exact order of the NFC West standings for +300 on DraftKings!

San Francisco 49ers

2022-23 Record: 13-4, lost NFC Championship

2023 Win Total: O/U 10.5

Key Offseason Moves: Signed: DL Javon Hargraves, QB Sam Darnold. Lost: DC Demeco Ryans. Hired: DC Steve Wilks

Outlook: The 49ers are so close to a championship. Their last three seasons have ended in a Super Bowl loss and back-to-back exits from the NFC Championship. Kyle Shanahan is a great head coach and they regularly have one of the best defensive rosters in the league, headlined by reigning Defensive Player of the Year Nick Bosa. The one piece they are missing is a truly *good* quarterback, so it’s no surprise that all the attention this offseason is on the position. That Netflix show, Quarterback, could have been entirely about the 49ers QB battle and it would have been great television.

With Jimmy Garoppolo gone to the once bay-town rival Raiders, the QB room in San Francisco is made up of Brock Purdy who is coming off surgery to repair a torn UCL, Trey Lance who is coming off ankle surgery (and who we’ve barely seen), stopgap option Sam Darnold and camp body Brandon Allen. It will likely be Purdy who gets the QB1 nod if all goes well in camp, and he looked good in the eight full games he played last year. But the 49ers’ success this season will hinge on the quality of play from its band of misfit characters under center.

Takeaway: Regardless of the QB situation, the 49ers are favored to win the division at -160, which despite the juice, actually presents value given our probability of 67%, with the odds implying 61%. The 49ers get the second-best odds and probability to win the NFC at 21% and +425, but there’s not much value there and it’s reasonable to expect a better price will reveal itself this season. To win the Super Bowl, you can get the 49ers at +1000 which implies a 9% chance, while our model suggests an 11.5% chance, making this the best bet from a calculable value perspective.

Looking at their win total, we see that it’s juiced to the over of 10.5 at -145. If you’re looking at an over the Niners, then you should start with 11.5 and go up to get the plus-money value. If you lean towards the Under, then +125 at 11.5 is a fine number on its own.

To find some more favorable plus-money value, you have a few options. You can take the 49ers to miss the playoffs at +360 , but this isn’t likely to happen. Even if they struggle to be a top team, 8 or 9 wins should get a playoff spot in this NFC landscape and there aren’t seven teams better than the 49ers.

Three years in a row of losing in the NFC Championship? That’ll come in at +400.

If you really want some nice odds, grab Christian McCaffrey to win Offensive Player of the Year at +1500. He could easily top 2000+ yards and be a top-3 TD scorer.

MORE: Best Odds for Every NFL Game

Seattle Seahawks

2022 Record: 9-8, lost in Divisional Round

2023 Win Total: O/U 9.5

Key Offseason Moves: Signed LB Bobby Wagner, extended QB Geno Smith. Drafted: WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, CB Devon Witherspoon.

Outlook: The Seahawks entered 2022 with the expectation that they would likely be the worst or second-worst team in the division. Then the Rams fell apart, Kyler Murray’s knee also fell apart and enter the Comeback Player of the Year, Geno Smith. Though he was more turnover-prone than he appeared on paper if you take a deeper look at the analytics, he manufactured the Seahawks to the playoffs in their first season post-Russell Wilson, who famously floundered in Denver. In the offseason, the Seahawks have only appeared to get better. They drafted two dynamic rookies, one for each side of the ball, in CB Devon Witherspoon and WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who are both poised to be Rookie of the Year candidates. They brought back franchise favorite Bobby Wagner and committed to Geno Smith with an extension that contains $40M guaranteed.

From our model’s perspective, the Seahawks are mispriced and not in the good way. Their best odds are at +200 to win the NFC West, but DimersBOT gives them just a 15.3% chance to do so, translating to a fair price of roughly +550. It’s not because they’re expected to be bad, but more because the 49rs are such a heavy favorite that the books won’t give you too good of a price on their second-most likely winner. But, there are playoff markets we like for Seattle that we’ll dive into below.

They’re currently +1600 to win the NFC title on PointsBet a price that’s a little more in line with our probability, which is at 3.9% for the Seahawks. To win it all? We’ve got Seattle at a 1.7% chance. While that doesn’t sound like much, and it’s not, it’s in the top half of our probabilities so you can imagine how slim the chances are for the teams below.

Takeaway: Let’s find some value! Seahawks to make the playoffs at -120? No thanks. To lose in the Wild Card Round (+275) or the Divisional Round (+425)? Now we’re talking. This team can easily make the playoffs and even win the division, but you get a better price on either of these results. And if you’re not betting on them to win the NFC, then these are their most likely results.

Their wins market is pretty much a stay-away unless you’re heavily fading or backing them one way or the other. There’s just not as much appealing value in the range of realistic outcomes for them.

As previously stated, both Witherspoon (+1000) and Smith-Njigba (+1500) are worth a look to capture Rookie of the Year on their respective side of the ball. Another good bet on an offensive player is Kenneth Walker III to have 100+ rushing yards in 8+ games at +650. He was three yards shy of doing this six times last season, and that was without being the starter until Week 5. Rashaad Penny is gone, it’s K9’s world now.

RELATED: 2023 NFL Preseason Futures Odds

Los Angeles Rams

2022 Record: 5-12, 3rd place in NFC West

2023 Win Total: O/U 6.5

Key Offseason Moves: None of note

Outlook: Like B-Rabbit in Eminem’s famed ”Lose Yourself” track from 8-Mile, it was a snap back to reality for the Rams, who suffered one of the toughest Super Bowl hangovers in recent memory. After hoisting the Lombardi at the close of the 2021-22 NFL season, the Rams sputtered out of the gate, finding themselves under .500 before injuries to QB Matthew Stafford, WR Cooper Kupp and DL Aaron Donald signed the death warrant on their season. They turned to Baker Mayfield at the end for crying out loud.

They were without a Day 1 pick in the draft and effectively sat out free agency, though they made a staggering 14 picks over Days 2 and 3 of the draft. They have a large group of young players to begin shaping their roster of the future, but what does that mean for this year?

Their 2023 outlook will depend on whether their trio of Donald, Kupp and Stafford can stay healthy all season. With one of the most perplexing backfields in all of the NFL, their rushing game is impossible to forecast, and how soon Cooper Kupp makes his return will shape the upside of this Rams’ season.

Takeaway: The Rams present an interesting value *if* things go their way this season. Our model is predicting a bounce-back year for the Rams, and one in which the 49ers’ muddy QB situation could lead to an opening in the NFC West. Behold, their 16% probability to win the division at +1000. Our model makes their fair price all the way down to +500, giving immense value on this bet. It’s a longshot for sure, but the misprice is undeniable based on our projections.

The value doesn’t stop there; at +4500 to win the NFC, you’re getting double the fair odds of +2200 based on our model’s 4.4% projection. If the Rams are healthy and competitive enough to win the division, they’ll be able to contend for the division title, though we wouldn’t sprinkle more than a quarter-unit on this.

If you think they make the playoffs as a Wild Card, then grabbing them at +475 to lose in the Wild Card Round or even +1200 to lose in the Divisional Round are great leans. Additionally, a 9 or 10-win season would put them in line for most improved team, which is great value at +1800 compared to +500 for Over 9.5 wins.

However, if you think it’s more of a doom and gloom kind of season for the Rams, you can get them to be the last winless team (+1200), have the fewest wins at +950, or exactly 4 (+700) or 5 (+500).

RELATED: AFC East Division Preview

Arizona Cardinals

2022 Record: 4-13, last place in NFC West

2023 Win Total: O/U 4.5

Key Offseason Moves: Fired: HC Kliff Kingsbury. Hired: HC Jonathan Gannon. Traded: WR DeAndre Hopkins. Drafted: T Paris Johnson Jr.

Outlook: Finally, we reach the Arizona Cardinals, who are far and away the consensus favorite to be the NFL’s worst team this year. And while that is entirely possible, there is far more value in betting on them not to be, which we’ll dive into below.

Last season was a disaster for the Cardinals. After starting out 2-2, they quickly derailed before losing their final seven games of the season and losing Kyler Murray to a torn ACL during a December 12th game vs. the Patriots. His return is up in the air, but with the season starting eight months after his surgery, there are rumblings that he could come back sooner than expected, even off such a tough injury.

Never reaching the full-on air raid assault of a passing attack that was advertised under supposed offensive guru Kliff Kingsbury, the Cardinals gave him the boot this year, and then cut disgruntled WR DeAndre Hopkins who has since inexplicably signed with the Titans.

The Cardinals are +2500 to win the NFC West, +10000 to win the NFC and +20000 to win the Super Bowl. Their probability of a title is so low, we don’t even have a percentage. Their NFC title odds are less than 0.3% according to DimersBOT. There’s nothing to bet on for the Cardinals in these markets.

Takeaway: The Cardinals effectively begin a rebuild this season, though without some of the bells and whistles like a (presently) healthy QB1, stare receiver and a brick wall o-line. While this team’s ceiling is certainly capped around 5-7 wins and missing the playoffs, there is value to be found even if we’re not backing them to be the worst team, of which there are several candidates in 2023, with the Commanders, Texans and Colts among them. Let’s look at a couple of markets for some hidden value:

Wins: If you want to fade the Cardinals’ win total, you have to get specific. Under 4.5 is -120 and under 3.5 is +150. Why take either when you can take exactly 3 or 4 wins, both at +450? You can even take 2 wins at +750 or to go winless (!) at +1600. Fade as far as you like.

Awards: Jonathan Gannon at +3500 to win Coach of the Year is a good bet if you’re higher on the Cardinals than most. Even if they scrape out a handful of wins early on, this price could drop significantly. Kyler Murray’s +7500 for Comeback Player of the Year is interesting, given how far down he is and the spotlight on the QB position. But the award is Damar Hamlin’s to lose and Kyler would likely need to play at least 12 games (and very well) to really make a run.

Player milestones: Any player (James Conner, really) to have 10+ regular season rush or receiving TDs is very appealing. Conner had 15 two seasons ago and 7 last year. He may find himself tumbling into the endzone more often with a likely emphasis on the run game. At +700, it’s a nice price.

MORE: Week 1 Game-by-Game Predictions

Get a head start on your NFL wagers with our full slate of NFL tools, all powered by our cutting-edge predictive analytics models known as ‘DimersBOT!’ We run 1000s of simulations for every game all season long to help identify where the books are mispricing their odds, all to help you turn a profit.

Remember to enjoy gambling responsibly. Treat it as entertainment, not a way to make money and only gamble with funds you can afford to lose. Know when to stop and seek support if needed. Remember, gambling should be a fun and enjoyable experience. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.

Dave Garofolo
Content Producer

Dave Garofolo, a seasoned fantasy sports and betting enthusiast with a special affection for MLB and NFL, uses his deep knowledge to craft game previews for the NBA, MLB, and NFL. He also brings his expertise to the golf world with tournament previews and parlays for the PGA TOUR and major golf tournaments. Additionally, Dave offers valuable props for NBA, MLB, NHL, and NCAAM basketball, along with best bets for MLB, NHL, and NCAAM. 

When not delving into the world of sports, Dave is an avid advocate for New Haven pizza, enjoys reading comic books, gardening, and spending time with his cats. His broad interests and detailed sports insights ensure that his contributions are both engaging and informative.

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