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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Playoffs today, Wednesday, April 22, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 4/22.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Wednesday, April 22, 2026—are live with the Suns' Jalen Green projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections derive insights from detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Green, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Franz Wagner lead Wednesday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also spotlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA Playoffs first basket predictions tonight (April 22, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Jalen Green | Suns | 14.2% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 13.6% |
| Franz Wagner | Magic | 12.7% |
| Jalen Williams | Thunder | 12.5% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 12.2% |
| Devin Booker | Suns | 12.1% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 11.5% |
| Desmond Bane | Magic | 10.7% |
| Paolo Banchero | Magic | 10.5% |
| Chet Holmgren | Thunder | 10.4% |
| Tobias Harris | Pistons | 10.0% |
| Duncan Robinson | Pistons | 9.2% |
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | 8.8% |
| Jalen Suggs | Magic | 8.1% |
| Mark Williams | Suns | 7.9% |
NBA first basket picks today (April 22, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duncan Robinson | Pistons | 2.1% | +1300 | 9.2% |
| Jalen Green | Suns | 1.7% | +700 | 14.2% |
| Franz Wagner | Magic | 0.9% | +750 | 12.7% |
| Jalen Williams | Thunder | 0.7% | +750 | 12.5% |
| Tobias Harris | Pistons | 0.0% | +900 | 10.0% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 4/22.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For the Playoffs action onWednesday, April 22, 2026, Jalen Green, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Franz Wagner lead our first basket projections, while Duncan Robinson shapes as the strongest value play at +1300. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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