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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Wednesday, March 25, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 3/25.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Wednesday, March 25, 2026—are live with the Pistons' Jalen Duren projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Duren, Luka Doncic and Victor Wembanyama lead Wednesday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (March 25, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 17.0% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 16.7% |
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 16.6% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 16.1% |
| Ace Bailey | Jazz | 15.9% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 15.8% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 14.9% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 14.8% |
| Evan Mobley | Cavaliers | 14.5% |
| Jayson Tatum | Celtics | 13.7% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 13.6% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 13.5% |
| Daniel Gafford | Mavericks | 13.4% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 13.2% |
| Bam Adebayo | Heat | 13.1% |
NBA first basket picks today (March 25, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 4.8% | +900 | 14.8% |
| Tre Jones | Bulls | 4.0% | +1000 | 13.1% |
| Kyle Kuzma | Bucks | 3.8% | +1000 | 12.9% |
| Jayson Tatum | Celtics | 2.6% | +800 | 13.7% |
| Daniel Gafford | Mavericks | 2.2% | +800 | 13.4% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 1.8% | +600 | 16.1% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 1.5% | +650 | 14.9% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 1.2% | +800 | 12.3% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 0.3% | +650 | 13.6% |
| Ryan Rollins | Bucks | 0.3% | +700 | 12.8% |
| Ayo Dosunmu | Timberwolves | 0.1% | +700 | 12.6% |
| Bilal Coulibaly | Wizards | 0.1% | +750 | 11.9% |
| Jalen Williams | Thunder | 0.0% | +700 | 12.5% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 3/25.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Wednesday, March 25, 2026, Jalen Duren, Luka Doncic and Victor Wembanyama lead our first basket projections, while RJ Barrett shapes as the strongest value play at +900. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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