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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Playoffs today, Tuesday, April 21, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of NBA slate on 4/21.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Tuesday, April 21, 2026—are live with the Spurs' Victor Wembanyama projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Wembanyama, Jaylen Brown and Deni Avdija lead Tuesday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also spotlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA Playoffs first basket predictions tonight (April 21, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 17.7% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 14.7% |
| Deni Avdija | Trail Blazers | 14.3% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 13.3% |
| LeBron James | Lakers | 13.2% |
| Deandre Ayton | Lakers | 12.2% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 11.7% |
| Paul George | 76ers | 11.6% |
| Jayson Tatum | Celtics | 11.5% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 11.0% |
| Rui Hachimura | Lakers | 10.7% |
| Neemias Queta | Celtics | 10.7% |
| De'Aaron Fox | Spurs | 10.5% |
| Jrue Holiday | Trail Blazers | 10.3% |
| Scoot Henderson | Trail Blazers | 10.1% |
NBA first basket picks today (April 21, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 1.7% | +900 | 11.7% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 0.8% | +700 | 13.3% |
| VJ Edgecombe | 76ers | 0.6% | +1000 | 9.7% |
| Sam Hauser | Celtics | 0.5% | +1300 | 7.7% |
| Amen Thompson | Rockets | 0.3% | +950 | 9.8% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 4/21.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For the Playoffs action onTuesday, April 21, 2026, Victor Wembanyama, Jaylen Brown and Deni Avdija lead our first basket projections, while Kevin Durant shapes as the strongest value play at +900. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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