NBA first basket predictions for Tuesday include Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Stephen Curry [10/21/2025]

This Tuesday, October 21st, another action-packed day of NBA basketball is on the menu, headlined by the Rockets' matchup against the Thunder at 7:30PM ET.

After going over Tuesday's NBA simulations early this morning (see Dimers Pro for full access), our data experts have revealed their best first basket bet of the day.

Additionally, this article reveals the NBA players our predictive analytics model has selected as having the highest probability of scoring the first basket in their respective matchups on Tuesday.

Let's dive into today's NBA first basket news and updates.

NBA Players to Watch Today

Based on the most recent latest NBA Injury Report, Tuesday's NBA slate is expected to showcase big names such as Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Stephen Curry and Luka Doncic, each with a high chance of scoring the first basket when they take to the court.

Who Will Score the First Basket Tonight? [NBA Cheat Sheet for October 21, 2025]

According to our data-driven analysis, the most likely NBA player to score the first basket across all of today's matchups is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, with a probability of 18.2%.

Thanks to simulating Tuesday's NBA games 10,000 times each, Dimers has determined the list of players most likely to score the first basket in their respective games.

Player (Team)	First Basket Probability
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder)	18.2%
Stephen Curry (Warriors)	15.4%
Luka Doncic (Lakers)	15.1%
Kevin Durant (Rockets)	13.8%
Alperen Sengun (Rockets)	13.2%
Deandre Ayton (Lakers)	13.0%
Chet Holmgren (Thunder)	11.2%
Amen Thompson (Rockets)	10.2%
Austin Reaves (Lakers)	9.4%
Rui Hachimura (Lakers)	8.7%

Following Gilgeous-Alexander closely, the players with the next highest likelihood of cashing your first basket bets are Stephen Curry at 15.4% and Luka Doncic at 15.1%.

Dimers Pro Pick of the Day: NBA First Basket [10/21/2025]

After simulating the result of today's NBA slate thousands of times, our leading predictive analytics model has generated the best NBA first basket bet for you to make on Tuesday.

For full access to our comprehensive analysis and top picks, subscribe to Dimers Pro.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander To Score First Basket

• Odds: +550
• Edge: 2.8%
• Probability: 18.2%
• Matchup: Rockets vs. Thunder (7:30PM ET)

Our model has identified the best NBA first basket bet for today's NBA slate in the game between the Rockets and Thunder. The bet is on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) at odds of +550 with FanDuel Sportsbook, with an edge of 2.8% according to our analysis.

Not only does Gilgeous-Alexander present an edge according to our model, but he is also the number one most likely first basket scorer for today, as noted in the list above.

Closer Look at Today's First Basket Props

NBA first basket props have become one of the more popular betting options for basketball bettors. By using Tuesday's data-driven NBA predictions, you can gain an advantage over everyone else.

For today's full list of NBA prop picks, join Dimers Pro. We give you the tools and information to succeed with hundreds of data-driven bets across thousands of games. Sign up now to join the community!

NBA News, Schedule Alerts and Updated Odds

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NBA Schedule for Today [10/21/2025]

• Rockets vs. Thunder (7:30PM ET, Tuesday)
• Warriors vs. Lakers (10:00PM ET, Tuesday)

For more betting guides, check out Tuesday's NBA best bets and our NBA player prop picks for Tuesday.

Tonight's NBA First Basket Picks: October 21, 2025

This NBA first basket article has been partially generated using automated processes and AI technology. Our goal is to provide timely and accurate updates on NBA first basket picks for October 21, 2025. Automation assists in data collection, analysis, and formatting, while human editing and quality control ensure the content meets our editorial standards.

All of our NBA first basket picks and predictions for Tuesday, October 21, are generated after thousands of data-driven game simulations, giving you reliable and accurate NBA predictions to help you make informed decisions.

If you plan to use today's NBA first basket predictions for sports betting, it's important that you practice responsible gambling and manage your finances effectively. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.

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Understanding Betting Edge

The "edge" at Dimers is when we think the probability of an event occurring is more likely than the best odds available. Essentially, it means that Dimers believes a bet has a better chance of winning than the sportsbooks do. That's why the higher the edge, the better.

Although it does not guarantee a win, taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being profitable in the long run. This is an essential aspect of a successful sports betting strategy.

More About NBA

This article is part of our NBA player props and NBA best bets series.

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