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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Thursday, December 11, 2025
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 12/11.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Thursday, December 11, 2025—are live with the Clippers' Kawhi Leonard projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections are based on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Leonard, Kevin Durant and Jaylen Brown lead Thursday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (December 11, 2025)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 14.6% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 14.3% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 14.2% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 14.0% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 13.9% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 13.7% |
| Ryan Rollins | Bucks | 12.9% |
| Maxime Raynaud | Kings | 12.8% |
| Deni Avdija | Trail Blazers | 12.5% |
| Jerami Grant | Trail Blazers | 11.6% |
| James Harden | Clippers | 11.2% |
| Saddiq Bey | Pelicans | 11.0% |
| Russell Westbrook | Kings | 10.7% |
| DeMar DeRozan | Kings | 10.6% |
| Derik Queen | Pelicans | 10.5% |
NBA first basket picks today (December 11, 2025)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 4.6% | +900 | 14.6% |
| Maxime Raynaud | Kings | 2.8% | +900 | 12.8% |
| Myles Turner | Bucks | 0.5% | +950 | 10.0% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 0.0% | +600 | 14.3% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 12/11.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Thursday, December 11, 2025, Kawhi Leonard, Kevin Durant and Jaylen Brown lead our first basket projections, with Leonard shaping as the strongest value play at +900. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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