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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Thursday, February 12, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 2/12.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Thursday, February 12, 2026—are live with the Mavericks' Naji Marshall projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Marshall, Austin Reaves and LeBron James lead Thursday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (February 12, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Naji Marshall | Mavericks | 14.4% |
| Austin Reaves | Lakers | 13.0% |
| LeBron James | Lakers | 12.9% |
| Chet Holmgren | Thunder | 12.7% |
| Myles Turner | Bucks | 12.4% |
| Cason Wallace | Thunder | 11.7% |
| Jaxson Hayes | Lakers | 11.5% |
| Max Christie | Mavericks | 11.2% |
| Kyle Kuzma | Bucks | 11.2% |
| Kyle Filipowski | Jazz | 11.0% |
| Ace Bailey | Jazz | 10.8% |
| Aaron Wiggins | Thunder | 10.8% |
| Isaiah Collier | Jazz | 10.7% |
| P.J. Washington | Mavericks | 10.1% |
| Daniel Gafford | Mavericks | 9.6% |
NBA first basket picks today (February 12, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Christie | Mavericks | 3.5% | +1200 | 11.2% |
| Naji Marshall | Mavericks | 2.6% | +750 | 14.4% |
| Myles Turner | Bucks | 2.4% | +900 | 12.4% |
| Isaiah Collier | Jazz | 1.2% | +950 | 10.7% |
| Daniel Gafford | Mavericks | 1.2% | +1100 | 9.5% |
| Kyle Kuzma | Bucks | 0.6% | +850 | 11.2% |
| Jericho Sims | Bucks | 0.1% | +1300 | 7.2% |
| Tyus Jones | Mavericks | 0.0% | +2000 | 4.8% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 2/12.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Thursday, February 12, 2026, Naji Marshall, Austin Reaves and LeBron James lead our first basket projections, while Max Christie shapes as the strongest value play at +1200. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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