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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Sunday, January 18, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 1/18.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Sunday, January 18, 2026—are live with the Lakers' Luka Doncic projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Doncic, Jamal Murray and Zion Williamson lead Sunday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (January 18, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 15.1% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 15.0% |
| Zion Williamson | Pelicans | 14.5% |
| Brandon Ingram | Raptors | 14.0% |
| Nikola Vucevic | Bulls | 14.0% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 13.6% |
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 13.4% |
| LaMelo Ball | Hornets | 13.4% |
| Franz Wagner | Magic | 12.6% |
| Nic Claxton | Nets | 12.4% |
| Peyton Watson | Nuggets | 12.4% |
| Aaron Gordon | Nuggets | 12.3% |
| Brandon Miller | Hornets | 11.8% |
| Scottie Barnes | Raptors | 11.8% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 11.7% |
NBA first basket picks today (January 18, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Ingram | Raptors | 0.7% | +650 | 14.0% |
| Immanuel Quickley | Raptors | 0.1% | +950 | 9.6% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 1/18.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Sunday, January 18, 2026, Luka Doncic, Jamal Murray and Zion Williamson lead our first basket projections, while Brandon Ingram shapes as the strongest value play at +650. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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