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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Saturday, December 20, 2025
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 12/20.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Saturday, December 20, 2025—are live with the Warriors' Stephen Curry projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Curry, Luka Doncic and Alex Sarr lead Saturday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (December 20, 2025)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 17.1% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 15.8% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 15.3% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 14.9% |
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 14.7% |
| CJ McCollum | Wizards | 14.6% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 14.6% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 14.3% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 14.2% |
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 13.9% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 13.8% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 13.6% |
| Keyonte George | Jazz | 13.1% |
| Brandon Ingram | Raptors | 12.9% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 12.8% |
NBA first basket picks today (December 20, 2025)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 3.7% | +800 | 14.9% |
| Anthony Black | Magic | 2.3% | +1100 | 10.6% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 2.0% | +650 | 15.3% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 1.7% | +700 | 14.2% |
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 1.7% | +550 | 17.1% |
| Maxime Raynaud | Kings | 1.0% | +900 | 11.0% |
| CJ McCollum | Wizards | 0.4% | +600 | 14.6% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 12/20.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Saturday, December 20, 2025, Stephen Curry, Luka Doncic and Alex Sarr lead our first basket projections, while Kawhi Leonard shapes as the strongest value play at +800. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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