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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Saturday, March 28, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 3/28.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Saturday, March 28, 2026—are live with the Timberwolves' Julius Randle projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections are based on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Randle, Victor Wembanyama and Jalen Duren lead Saturday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (March 28, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Julius Randle | Timberwolves | 18.5% |
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 16.8% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 15.7% |
| Devin Booker | Suns | 14.4% |
| Jalen Green | Suns | 14.4% |
| Ryan Rollins | Bucks | 14.2% |
| LaMelo Ball | Hornets | 14.2% |
| Brice Sensabaugh | Jazz | 13.8% |
| Joel Embiid | 76ers | 13.6% |
| Tre Jones | Bulls | 13.1% |
| Matas Buzelis | Bulls | 12.9% |
| Ty Jerome | Grizzlies | 12.9% |
| Rudy Gobert | Timberwolves | 12.5% |
| Ace Bailey | Jazz | 12.4% |
| De'Aaron Fox | Spurs | 12.3% |
NBA first basket picks today (March 28, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Jones | Bulls | 2.5% | +850 | 13.1% |
| Brice Sensabaugh | Jazz | 2.0% | +750 | 13.8% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 1.4% | +600 | 15.7% |
| Dyson Daniels | Hawks | 0.6% | +1100 | 9.0% |
| CJ McCollum | Hawks | 0.3% | +750 | 12.0% |
| Cody Williams | Jazz | 0.2% | +1000 | 9.3% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 3/28.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Saturday, March 28, 2026, Julius Randle, Victor Wembanyama and Jalen Duren lead our first basket projections, while Tre Jones shapes as the strongest value play at +850. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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