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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Monday, January 12, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 1/12.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Monday, January 12, 2026—are live with the Clippers' Kawhi Leonard projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Leonard, LeBron James and Luka Doncic lead Monday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (January 12, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 15.7% |
| LeBron James | Lakers | 15.0% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 14.6% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 14.4% |
| Joel Embiid | 76ers | 14.1% |
| LaMelo Ball | Hornets | 13.3% |
| Lauri Markkanen | Jazz | 13.2% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 13.2% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 12.7% |
| Derrick White | Celtics | 12.4% |
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 12.3% |
| Payton Pritchard | Celtics | 12.2% |
| Brandon Miller | Hornets | 12.0% |
| Zach LaVine | Kings | 11.9% |
| DeMar DeRozan | Kings | 11.2% |
NBA first basket picks today (January 12, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Westbrook | Kings | 1.4% | +1000 | 10.5% |
| Jusuf Nurkic | Jazz | 0.8% | +1000 | 9.9% |
| Maxime Raynaud | Kings | 0.6% | +950 | 10.2% |
| Sam Hauser | Celtics | 0.4% | +1000 | 9.5% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 1/12.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Monday, January 12, 2026, Kawhi Leonard, LeBron James and Luka Doncic lead our first basket projections, while Russell Westbrook shapes as the strongest value play at +1000. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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