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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Friday, March 27, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Experience Officer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of NBA slate on 3/27.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Friday, March 27, 2026—are live with the Thunder's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Doncic and Ace Bailey lead Friday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (March 27, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 18.2% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 16.8% |
| Ace Bailey | Jazz | 16.2% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 15.8% |
| Jayson Tatum | Celtics | 15.8% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 14.6% |
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 14.5% |
| Kristaps Porzingis | Warriors | 14.5% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 14.4% |
| Jalen Williams | Thunder | 13.9% |
| Darius Garland | Clippers | 13.8% |
| Zion Williamson | Pelicans | 13.5% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 13.2% |
| Naji Marshall | Mavericks | 13.0% |
| Jeremiah Fears | Pelicans | 12.9% |
NBA first basket picks today (March 27, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naji Marshall | Mavericks | 3.9% | +1000 | 13.0% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 3.2% | +950 | 12.7% |
| Ace Bailey | Jazz | 2.9% | +650 | 16.2% |
| Cody Williams | Jazz | 2.5% | +1000 | 11.6% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 2.1% | +700 | 14.6% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 1.6% | +600 | 15.8% |
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 1.1% | +650 | 14.5% |
| Norman Powell | Heat | 0.8% | +900 | 10.8% |
| Jalen Williams | Thunder | 0.6% | +650 | 13.9% |
| Tyler Herro | Heat | 0.6% | +850 | 11.1% |
| Jayson Tatum | Celtics | 0.4% | +550 | 15.8% |
| Matas Buzelis | Bulls | 0.3% | +700 | 12.8% |
| Derrick White | Celtics | 0.0% | +750 | 11.8% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 3/27.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Friday, March 27, 2026, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Doncic and Ace Bailey lead our first basket projections, while Naji Marshall shapes as the strongest value play at +1000. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media brands.
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