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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Friday, February 20, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 2/20.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Friday, February 20, 2026—are live with the Clippers' Kawhi Leonard projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections are based on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Leonard, Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic lead Friday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (February 20, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 17.4% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 16.1% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 14.6% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 14.2% |
| Ryan Rollins | Bucks | 14.0% |
| Brandon Williams | Mavericks | 13.9% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 13.9% |
| Jalen Johnson | Hawks | 13.9% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 13.9% |
| Zion Williamson | Pelicans | 13.0% |
| Julius Randle | Timberwolves | 12.7% |
| Jarrett Allen | Cavaliers | 12.6% |
| LaMelo Ball | Hornets | 12.5% |
| Jarace Walker | Pacers | 12.5% |
| Brandon Miller | Hornets | 12.3% |
NBA first basket picks today (February 20, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Williams | Mavericks | 5.6% | +1100 | 13.9% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 4.1% | +650 | 17.4% |
| Luka Doncic | Lakers | 2.1% | +700 | 14.6% |
| Naji Marshall | Mavericks | 1.4% | +900 | 11.4% |
| Jrue Holiday | Trail Blazers | 1.1% | +850 | 11.7% |
| Jalen Johnson | Hawks | 0.5% | +650 | 13.9% |
| Jaylen Wells | Grizzlies | 0.2% | +750 | 12.0% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 2/20.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Friday, February 20, 2026, Kawhi Leonard, Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic lead our first basket projections, while Brandon Williams shapes as the strongest value play at +1100. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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