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Home run predictions and picks: Top bet for Dinger Tuesday has +710 odds [4/21/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get home run predictions today backed by expert analysis of Tuesday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Tuesday, April 21, 2026, feature Jo Adell as the top projected hitter, per Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Tuesday's HR projections pull from our full list of home run predictions, which simulate every MLB matchup 10,000 times to reveal the top slugging candidates today.
Home run predictions for April 21, 2026
See which hitters join Adell on today’s list — including one long-shot pick the model rates as value at +710.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Jo Adell (Angels) | 21.2% |
| Vladimir Guerrero (Blue Jays) | 20.4% |
| Daulton Varsho (Blue Jays) | 19.2% |
| Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) | 18.7% |
| Aaron Judge (Yankees) | 18.4% |
| Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) | 18.2% |
| Kazuma Okamoto (Blue Jays) | 18.1% |
| Junior Caminero (Rays) | 18.0% |
| Eugenio Suarez (Reds) | 17.9% |
| Mike Trout (Angels) | 17.8% |
Our analysis shows Adell leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 21.2% chance to go yard, followed by Vladimir Guerrero (20.4%) and Daulton Varsho (19.2%).
Kyle Schwarber and Aaron Judge are among several other sluggers to crack the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Tuesday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep. features in today's home run predictions on Tuesday, April 21, 2026.
Tuesday's home run picks [4/21/2026]
Dimers Pro’s 10,000-simulation model, factoring in weather and pitching matchups, surfaces today’s highest-rated home run prop.
Kazuma Okamoto (Blue Jays) to hit a home run
- Probability: 18.9%
- Odds: +710
- Edge: 6.5%
- Game: Blue Jays vs. Angels (9:38 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Jack Kochanowicz
Ranked among today’s top 10 home run projections, Toronto slugger Kazuma Okamoto rates as a value play at +710 with FanDuel Sportsbook, showing a 6.5% edge.
Set to face Jack Kochanowicz in tonight's Blue Jays-Angels matchup, the data supports Okamoto as one of Tuesday’s strongest value spots among available home run props — and a natural fit for Dinger Tuesday, a night built around finding value in long-ball matchups.
Originally sparked by sportsbook offers rewarding bonus bets for each home run hit by a selected player, Dinger Tuesday has evolved into a weekly tradition for MLB bettors — where clear, model-driven insights like these can help separate signal from noise.
Pro users have access to a total of nine home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
Conclusion
For April 21, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Jo Adell, Vladimir Guerrero and Daulton Varsho projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Kazuma Okamoto who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 6.5% edge at +710 odds.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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