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Heat vs. Pacers prediction: Why Miami is favored to win Sunday's NBA matchup [3/29/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Ryan Leaver, Senior Sports and Betting Editor
Get Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers predictions for NBA Sunday.
NBA action continues on Sunday at 5:00 PM ET as the Miami Heat take on the Indiana Pacers at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
Based on updated simulation results and today’s injury reports, Dimers' proven NBA model projects the Heat as the most likely winner of the Heat vs. Pacers game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Pacers lineup will feature stars like Pascal Siakam, Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith, while the Heat will look to Bam Adebayo, Norman Powell and Tyler Herro.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Heat vs. Pacers prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NBA game between the Heat and Pacers, forming part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Heat a 76% chance of beating the Pacers. Our predicted final score has the Heat winning 126-117.
According to our model, the Pacers (+9.5) have a 54% chance of covering the spread, while the 245.5-point over/under has a 54% chance of staying under.
Heat vs. Pacers odds
We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Heat | Pacers |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -9.5 (-105) | +9.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | -390 | +325 |
| Total | o245.5 (-110) | u245.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Heat vs. Pacers picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Pacers +9.5 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Pacers | +325 |
| Total | Under 245.5 | -110 |
According to our NBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Pacers +9.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Heat vs. Pacers player props
Looking for Miami vs. Indiana NBA player props? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
Bam Adebayo is expected to lead the Heat with 22 points, 11 rebounds and 3 assists, while Pascal Siakam is projected to have 23 points, 6 rebounds and 4 assists for the Pacers.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Heat prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Heat are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Adebayo | 22 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 46 |
| Norman Powell | 21 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 35 |
| Tyler Herro | 21 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 38 |
| Andrew Wiggins | 13 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 27 |
| Jaime Jaquez | 12 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 25 |
Pacers prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Pacers:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pascal Siakam | 23 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 41 |
| Andrew Nembhard | 17 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 38 |
| Aaron Nesmith | 15 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 28 |
| Jarace Walker | 14 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 31 |
| Obi Toppin | 12 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 24 |
Heat vs. Pacers game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's game between the Pacers and Heat at Gainbridge Fieldhouse is scheduled to start at 5:00 PM ET.
- Who: Miami Heat vs. Indiana Pacers
- Date: Sunday, March 29, 2026
- Time: 5:00 PM ET/2:00PM PT
- Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse
Conclusion
We predict the Heat, with a 76% win probability, will likely beat the Pacers on Sunday, with Bam Adebayo projected for a game-high 46 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Heat vs. Pacers insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice, head to our responsible gambling hub.
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Ryan Leaver uses advanced statistical models and simulations to predict outcomes and provide predictions for the NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, and soccer. He offers detailed game previews, best bets, props, and futures articles.
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