March Madness NCAA College Basketball Sunday Betting Picks, Probabilities, Odds, Parlays and Predicted Scores

After what's felt like an eternity, March Madness is set to return to our screens in the form of the much anticipated Sweet 16, and we've got the best picks, betting plays and sportsbook odds coming at you from every angle!

The action continues with four massive games on Sunday, and is set to keep us entertained all weekend. Of course, the the best way to add to the excitement is by having some skin in the game by throwing some cash down on our suggested plays below. Good luck!

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Florida State vs. Michigan

Prospector Sam (19-11 ATS) ⛏️

I mentioned it a bit in the nuggets, but I was very wrong about FSU and how they would look against Colorado. This team is scary athletic, and if they keep it together in the turnover department, they’re a tough matchup for anyone in the country. Michigan has also showed a lot, especially without Isaiah Livers, and handled an LSU team that gave them everything they had and then some by consistently scoring and weathering the storm. But without Livers this clearly is not the same Wolverines team that was a lock for a number one seed, and they’re going to get a damn tough test from FSU.

I’m riding with the ‘Noles. For one, its worth noting that Michigan is the only Big 10 team left standing, and we have to doubt the quality of their body of work a bit if its based on how well they performed in a conference that has repeatedly failed in this Tournament. I’ve liked what I saw all year from Michigan, but at a certain point you have to accept that it may not have been as spectacular as we once thought. On top of that, FSU was incredible against Colorado, and if they get help from role players like Anthony Polite (who put up 22 in that game) then this Seminoles team could legitimately win the national championship. Hunter Dickinson is usually the best big man on the floor in any game he plays, especially at 7’1”, but FSU has multiple 7 footers that can give them minutes and battle down low, along with a strong cast of forwards who will cause him issues with their strength inside.

Without that advantage in the paint, I think Michigan’s offense will sputter a bit because shooters will get less space on the outside from collapsing defenses, and FSU is so athletic that they can handle the task defensively. I’ve seen enough to believe in FSU, so long as they keep themselves under 17 or so turnovers, and I think they are the better bet here.

💰 Sam's Pick: FSU +2.5

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DimersBOT 🤖

Florida State rolled through the first two rounds of the tournament with relative ease and now come up against one of the favorites to win it all. With the form they're coming in with, our model has them covering the spread, with the final predicted margin sitting at just one point at the time of writing.

💰 DimersBOT's pick: FSU +2.5
📈 57% probability

‍‍Click the predicted score below for more probabilities and predictions ⬇️‍

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Creighton vs. Gonzaga

Prospector Sam (19-11 ATS) ⛏️

Well, I bet against Gonzaga on their crazy 14.5 line against Oklahoma, and everything was swell with about 2 minutes left in the game. Then, Oklahoma just collapsed and gave up a 9-2 run to let the Zags cover the spread. It was a frustrating result, but also reflective of something I’ve been saying since the bracket came out; Gonzaga got an absolute gift in their road to the Final Four. That trend continues here, as they face a Creighton team that should have lost in Round 1 to the mighty UCSB, and then faced an Ohio team that never really showed up after their upset against UVA. Again we’re faced with a 13.5-point spread, and I’m completely conflicted about this line.

On the one hand, my brain tells me that this is the Tournament, and giving up that many points is fucking insane. On the other hand, Gonzaga is very good and this is the perfect matchup for them, against a smaller conference school who will be completely outmatched in terms of talent and skill. If you’re looking for the window to bet against Gonzaga, like I am, I think you should probably wait until they face a team with more recruiting weight and a higher ceiling than this Creighton team. My gut wants me to bet the Bluejays, but I don’t like it enough to get comfortable with the pick.

💰 Sam's Pick: Abstain

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DimersBOT 🤖

This one is huge! DimersBOT is extremely confident of the underdogs covering in this one, producing one of the biggest edges we've ever seen at Dimers HQ. Gonzaga is good, but 13.5 points looks too generous here! 

💰 Pick: Creighton +13.5
📈 66% probability

‍‍‍Click the predicted score below for more probabilities and predictions ⬇️‍

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UCLA vs. Alabama

Prospector Sam (19-11 ATS) ⛏️

The key to beating this UCLA team is clearly shutting down Johnny Juzang. When he’s hitting shots, which he has so far this tournament, it opens up the whole offense and gives them better looks, something they can struggle with at times due to injuries at forward. Michigan State did a decent job of it for a while, and held Juzang to just 33% from 3, but ultimately fell apart down the stretch which let the Bruins come back and win. Alabama isn’t necessarily set up for that defensive effort either. They win by scoring in bunches, and are pretty content to let other teams put up some points so long as they can effectively hit from 3. But I like Alabama here.

While UCLA is a solid team, they got the benefit of two extremely favorable matchups in the first two rounds that made them look a hell of a lot better than they actually are. Meanwhile, Alabama is just fucking good, and beat the piss out of a solid Maryland defensive unit by shooting them to death and hitting shots before the Terps could even set up defensively. UCLA is solid on that end of the floor, but they aren’t spectacular, and they’re going to have issues keeping up with the Tide offensively. I think the key is the style of play you need to hang with Alabama; you want to slow the game down, limit possessions and transition buckets, and force the Tide to play a half court offense. Iona used that strategy to some success, and teams who have beaten the Tide (Oklahoma, Missouri, Clemson) have mostly done it in low scoring games.

Mick Cronin is a great coach and may try to slow things down a bit, but that’s not the style of play that UCLA wants to implement, and I don’t expect them to completely overhaul their offense to try to turn this into a minimal possession game, since its just not what they’re good at. If that’s the case, I don’t think they have the guns to keep up with Alabama and I expect the Tide to take this one comfortably.

💰 Sam's pick: Alabama -6

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DimersBOT 🤖

We're sure to see an upset or two in the Sweet 16, but this doesn't look like the one. Alabama is at reasonably low odds, but even at around -250, our model has identified value in betting them to win outright.

💰 DimersBOT's Pick: Alabama at the moneyline
📈 69% probability

Click the predicted score below for more probabilities and predictions ⬇️‍‍

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Oregon vs. USC

Prospector Sam (19-11 ATS) ⛏️

Betting games where both programs know each other well is a difficult task in the Tournament. Arkansas and ORU had already played each other this year, but conference rivals are a whole different ballgame and these two teams will know each other inside out already. They faced off just once this year in LA, where USC won comfortably by 14. The question is, just how good is this Oregon team. They looked like the fucking dream team against Iowa, but the Hawkeyes basically refused to play defense so its hard to know how much of that was Oregon being good and how much was their opponent’s futility.

USC won comfortably against an overmatched Drake side in Round 1, which told me almost nothing, but they absolutely dominated KU in Round 2 by 34 fucking points. That performance is the difference for me. Between the first round bye and the one game played, I don’t feel all that certain that Oregon is a great team, but I sure as hell know that USC is right now. Add in that the best player on the court, Evan Mobley, is playing for the Trojans, and I can’t bet against them here. Sure, if Oregon comes out shooting even half as well as they did against Iowa then USC is going to have a tough time keeping up, but USC will know how to defend the Ducks and will make sure not to allow an open shot or uncontested layup on every fucking possession. Chris Duarte is a great player, but USCs first priority defensively will be stifling him, which will help slow down the rest of the Oregon offense. I expect USC holds Oregon to a more average shooting performance, and takes this game in a close one.

💰 Sam's pick: USC -2.5

DimersBOT 🤖

The Trojans absolutely dismantled Kansas in their last game and with that, our model sees little reason to go against them in this one. Even at -130 odds, they present great value for bettors.

💰 DimersBOT's pick: USC at the moneyline

Click the predicted score below for more probabilities and predictions ⬇️‍

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