Jaguars vs. Texans Prediction: Houston Predicted to Win Following Latest Data Analysis for NFL Week 4 [2024]

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Written by Dave Garofolo
Jacksonville Jaguars-Houston Texans Predictions and Game Preview.
NRG Stadium sets the stage for the NFL matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans this Sunday.

NFL Week 4 action continues on Sunday at 1:00PM ET as the Jacksonville Jaguars take on the favored Houston Texans at NRG Stadium.

Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven NFL model (see Dimers Pro for full access) projects the Texans as the most likely winner of today's game.

"Using the most recent data, our experts ran 10,000 simulations of Sunday's Jaguars-Texans game," said Dimers' Chief Content Officer, Nick Slade.

"After accounting for recent updates and other variables, our prediction shows the Texans with a win probability of 70%, while the Jaguars have 30%."

Jaguars vs. Texans Game-Day Updates and Essential Details

The NFL Week 4 action between the Texans and Jaguars at NRG Stadium is scheduled to start at 1:00PM ET.

Dimers.com's full preview of this week's Jaguars vs. Texans matchup includes our prediction, picks and the latest betting odds.

Before making any Texans vs. Jaguars picks, be sure to check out the latest NFL predictions and betting advice from Dimers Pro.

READER EXCLUSIVE: Sign up with code 20FOOTBALL at checkout right now to receive 20% off your first month of Dimers Pro! This offer won't last forever.

Jaguars vs. Texans Predictions

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NFL game between the Jaguars and Texans 10,000 times as part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Texans a 70% chance of defeating the Jaguars in Week 4 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Texans winning 25-19.

According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the Jaguars and Texans each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the 44.5-point over/under also has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

 

Along with our Jaguars vs. Texans predictions, we've also prepared the following for today’s action:

Jaguars vs. Texans Odds

We have researched the best betting odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type Jaguars Texans
Spread +5.5 (-102) -5.5 (-108)
Moneyline +200 -238
Total o44.5 (-110) u44.5 (-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Jaguars vs. Texans Picks

Our model's biggest edge in today's Jaguars vs. Texans matchup is on the moneyline.

Our expert predictions, matched against the best odds, reveal the best NFL picks for every game throughout the season.

Unlimited access to our picks, including this one, is available via Dimers Pro.

Jaguars vs. Texans TD Scorers

Who will score an anytime touchdown in Jaguars vs. Texans?

According to our model, Houston's Nico Collins is most likely to score the first touchdown in Jaguars vs. Texans.

Our projections give Collins a 10.8% chance of scoring the first TD at NRG Stadium, while the Texans WR is a 44.3% chance of scoring an anytime touchdown.

First Touchdown Scorer Predictions

Jacksonville Jaguars

Player First TD Probability
Travis Etienne 9.7%
Christian Kirk 7.4%
Gabe Davis 6.8%

Houston Texans

Player First TD Probability
Nico Collins 10.8%
Joe Mixon 10.5%
Stefon Diggs 9.7%

Anytime Touchdown Scorer Predictions

Jacksonville Jaguars

Player Anytime TD Probability
Travis Etienne 42.8%
Christian Kirk 32.6%
Gabe Davis 30.4%

Houston Texans

Player Anytime TD Probability
Nico Collins 44.3%
Joe Mixon 44.1%
Stefon Diggs 40.0%

For a complete analysis of the most likely first and anytime TD scorers this week, see our NFL Week 4 touchdown scorer predictions

Jaguars vs Texans Player Props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Jaguars and Texans. For detailed projections, join Dimers Pro.

Already a Dimers Pro member? Head to our Jaguars-Texans page now to access every player prop projection.

Jaguars vs. Texans Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Jaguars' Trevor Lawrence is projected to throw for fewer yards than the Texans' C.J. Stroud.

Jaguars Rushing

Travis Etienne, Trevor Lawrence and Tank Bigsby are projected to be the leading rushers for the Jaguars.

Player Position
Travis Etienne RB
Trevor Lawrence QB
Tank Bigsby RB

Texans Rushing

Joe Mixon, Cam Akers and C.J. Stroud are expected to lead the Texans in rushing yards.

Player Position
Joe Mixon RB
Cam Akers RB
C.J. Stroud QB

Jaguars Receiving

Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis, Brian Thomas, Travis Etienne and Luke Farrell are projected to top the receiving yards for the Jaguars.

Player Position
Christian Kirk WR
Gabe Davis WR
Brian Thomas WR
Travis Etienne RB
Luke Farrell TE

Texans Receiving

Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, Dalton Schultz, Joe Mixon and Robert Woods are projected to lead the Texans in receiving yards.

Player Position
Nico Collins WR
Stefon Diggs WR
Dalton Schultz TE
Joe Mixon RB
Robert Woods WR

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Conclusion

We predict the Texans, with a 70% win probability, will likely beat the Jaguars on Sunday.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Jaguars vs. Texans insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Note: Clicking links to our partners may earn us a referral fee. Learn about how we review products and services.

More on NFL

Keep up with the latest NFL betting news and our data-led NFL best bets and NFL parlay picks throughout the season. Plus, our Super Bowl odds provide the latest predictions for the Super Bowl, AFC, NFC and each division.

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Written by
Dave Garofolo
Content Producer

Dave Garofolo, a seasoned fantasy sports and betting enthusiast with a special affection for the NFL and MLB, crafts insightful game previews and betting props for the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM and PGA TOUR tournaments.

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