How to Handle Gambling Streaks

Flip a coin enough times, and eventually you’ll get a few heads or a few tails in a row. That doesn’t mean the coin flip isn’t 50/50, it just means that outcomes don’t always follow the exact probability in the short term. But, if you flip that coin 1,000 times it’ll come out close to an even split, with that number getting more accurate the more times you do it. You’re welcome for summarizing my statistics theory knowledge (and my overpriced mathematics degree) into one short paragraph that you could have probably written on your own.

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This article, much like our friend the coin, really has two sides to it. Or maybe it’s got two layers like a cake, I’m not really sure. But, to keep this easy, we’re talking about two concepts in one; short term vs long term gambling, and managing variance in the short term. I’ve talked way too much about the importance of long term results over short term swings, so today we’re going to simplify this shit and talk about how to handle those days when things go really well or really poorly.

Too often on Gambling Twitter, you see the negatives of either end. On one side, you’ll see some gambler who hits a big ticket or has an amazing day (despite not being very good overall) talking about how great they are and how they descended from Zeus and the Pharaohs to become a gambling legend. On the other end, you’ll see very good gamblers who have bad days take the blunt end of a stick to the face from some burner account who expects them to make money every day then solve world hunger at night.

The reality is, though, that short term results fluctuate and we need to handle them correctly when they do happen - good or bad. With that, a super special article with TWO LISTS (I know, what a day) for how to deal with each end of the spectrum, either as a capper or someone who tails.


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Dealing with Hot Streaks When Gambling:


Part one of winning a lot of money should always be to enjoy that shit. Gambling is fun and winning is fun, so when you put the two together you get double fun (simple math). That doesn’t mean you should go out and rub it hard in other people’s faces or blow your new cash on strippers, but enjoy the good feeling and share it with others (if you’re so inclined)

Did you Do Anything Different?

Once the shine wears off, you’ll realize the thing you want most is to replicate that feeling. And, if you’re gonna do that, you’ll want to set yourself up for success again. Sometimes, it may be as simple as “my reads just went right all at once,” but there might be other factors like how you did your analysis, what angles you focused on, or even what types of gambling suit you better (for example, I’ve learned by trial and error that I’m much better at certain sports). The best way to win big again is to give yourself opportunities to succeed.

Don’t Make Sudden Changes

DO NOT OVERDO IT. Everyone on Gambling Twitter has seen someone hit it big and decide they’re some savant, only to lose a bunch of money by increasing their units or getting too aggressive. Stay in your lane, and keep doing what you do best. The easiest way to have things go wrong after you win is to start changing your approach, and keeping yourself in check is key. Does that mean you cant start raising your bets a little bit over time? Of course not. But just don't go multiplying your unit size after a day.

On to the Next

Winning is great, but hanging your hat on past victories will only hurt you. Buckle down, get smarter, and jump back into the gambling grind. Short term winning is awesome, but your bank account and the people watching care way more about how that stuff looks over months or even years. One good day is nice, now go out and focus on having another one

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Dealing with Cold Streaks When Gambling:

Get out Some Anger

Losing sucks. There’s no getting around that and it doesn't get easier with time. When you lose a lot of money, there’s absolutely nothing wrong with getting pissed and letting out some of that emotion. Should you go smash your dishes or go search for a drunk bar fight? Probably not. But you have to dislike losing if you want to win.

Don’t Go Overboard or Bite on the Trolls

While losing never gets easier, perspective does. I’ve done this long enough to know that rainy days always come, and the most important thing to focus on is whether the good days outweigh the bad. So, when things get shitty, don't go scrapping everything you’ve learned or try to win an argument with some faceless loser who wants to piss you off more. Focus on weathering the storm and knowing that clear skies will come eventually.

Take a Hard Look at What Went Wrong

I won’t say it’s more important to analyze your bets when you lose, but it’s certainly a better place to learn. Figure out where you’re making mistakes and why, because that will help you avoid it the next time. I’ve written lots on how to analyze your picks after they finish so I wont get too deep into it here, but take a hard look at what bad assumptions you made so you won’t go out and replicate them

Figure Out if This is a Long or Short Term Issue

Here’s the big question: sometimes the issue is bigger than just some short term struggles. Maybe you havent been putting in enough work. Maybe you’re strategy is bad (you know, like those daily parlays). Maybe, and it can be really hard to hear this, but you just aren’t a great gambler. If the issue is wider than a few losses, it may be time to alter course rather than plowing ahead towards the same wall. I’ll leave that to you to figure out.

On to the Next

Just like our good days, the key to winning your next bet is to forget about the last one. If you linger on past mistakes, you’re taking away brainpower that could be used to win next time out. Take a deep breath, trust yourself to get better, and move the fuck on.

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